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Robert Lorge evaluates three wide receivers who are overvalued in 2021 fantasy football drafts. These WRs aren't worth the risk at their current ADP.
In every fantasy football draft, fantasy managers are constantly looking to do two things. The first is to find value and the other is avoiding busts. It seems so simple. If only that was the case. Still, that is the goal. Every, single year.
Oftentimes, fantasy managers spend more time looking for value picks than identifying the players who may disappoint. Both are important, however, avoiding busts early is crucial because those picks carry a higher level of importance than late-round selections.
I have identified three wide receivers whom I believe are currently being overvalued by fantasy managers this season. It's always important to remember, coining a player as overvalued doesn't mean I don't like them, just that I don't like the price tag they're currently being priced at. All of these guys are certainly capable of being fantasy assets in 2021, but the name of the game in any fantasy football draft is finding value, something all three of these receivers are lacking, in my opinion.
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Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team
(ADP: 28.2, WR11)
I'm coming out swinging, folks! I know Scary Terry is a fantasy football darling this season with the addition of Ryan Fitzpatrick, but his hype train is running too fast for me. Last year, McLaurin finished WR20 in points per game (PPG) in half-PPR scoring. He's currently being drafted as the WR11 ahead of guys like Allen Robinson, Amari Cooper and Robert Woods.
Now, before you come at me with the whole "but Dwayne Haskins and Alex Smith!" talk, I'll see that talk and raise you Mitchell Trubisky, Andy Dalton, and Jared Goff. The fact of the matter is that none of these four wide receivers received good quarterback play last season. Allen Robinson however, averaged 1.2 more points per game (PPG) than McLaurin. Woods edge McLaurin by half-a-point and Cooper and McLaurin were essentially tied.
Now, I get it, McLaurin has Ryan Fitzpatrick, but I'll see Fitzpatrick and raise you Justin Fields, Dak Prescott and Matthew Stafford. Stafford and Prescott are solidly better than Fitzpatrick and I think the possibility of Fields being better than Fitzpatrick in his rookie season isn't as far-fetched as it might seem. Here's the other thing, last season Washington had the eighth-most pass attempts per game in the NFL. With their defense, which is expected to be a top-five unit, fantasy managers should be expecting the number of passes per game to go down, not up. It's likely that Washington leans on their running game with Antonio Gibson. While Fitzpatrick was brought in to be a stabilizing factor at quarterback, that doesn't necessarily mean more volume and in this case, I don't think it does.
To make matters slightly less appealing, the addition of Curtis Samuel is not ideal. Any way you slice it, that's more target competition this season for McLaurin. I also expect the Cowboys and Rams offense to be significantly more potent from a scoring perspective and there's just no way McLaurin can compete with Allen Robinson's target share.
Last year, Terry McLaurin led WFT WRs with 134 TGT. The next closest WR was Cam Sims with 48 TGT.
In 2019, McLaurin led with 93 TGT. The next closest was Steven Sims with 56 TGT.
WFT now added Curtis Samuel, Dyami Brown, and Adam Humphries to their WR core.
Fade McLaurin.
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) June 9, 2021
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Bucs
(ADP: 34.3, WR15)
Where to start with Mike Evans? Last season, Evans received 109 targets. This was the lowest of his career, by far. Prior to 2020, he averaged 9.3 targets per game. This past year, that fell to 6.8. That would be concerning at face value, but the surrounding context of the Buccaneers' 2020 season will add even more apprehension.
Chris Godwin missed four games and played the majority of the season at less than 100%. Antonio Brown missed eight games and OJ Howard missed 14. And for good measure, the Buccaneers also added Giovani Bernard, a running back in the mold of James White, a personal favorite of Tom Brady. If we saw his targets per game drop by 2.5 a game in 2020 with less competition, what happens in 2021 when all of those guys are healthy and on the field all the time?
Having too many mouths to feed is an awesome problem for an NFL coach to have, but it's a troubling one for fantasy managers and it is awfully crowded in Tampa Bay. If that weren't the only problem, Evans' 2020 touchdown rate is just not at all repeatable. He had scored double-digit touchdowns on two other occasions in his career. The first was his rookie season when he had 123 targets and 12 touchdowns, a 9.7% touchdown rate. The other was in 2016 when he had 173 targets and 12 touchdowns, a 6.9% touchdown rate. In 2020, he had 13 touchdowns on just 109 targets, an 11.9% touchdown rate.
Even when we look at just the two other seasons he scored double-digit touchdowns, fantasy managers should be expecting some solid regression in terms of his touchdown rate, but he has four other seasons in the NFL.
Mike Evans had the most TD’s of his career in 2020 on the lowest amount of targets he’s ever had. His TD rate for his career was 5.74% prior to 2020. In 2020 it was 12%. If he had scored at his career average last season, he would’ve been WR26, not WR10. In 2019 he…..
— Rob (@RobFFAddict) May 24, 2021
His career touchdown rate prior to 2020 was 5.7% and he more than doubled that in 2020. Regression is coming and to make matters even worse, so is a bunch more target competition.
Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns
(ADP: 55.2, WR27)
Fantasy managers are likely clinging to what was or what might have been, but those days are long gone now. Beckham hasn't been a force in fantasy football since 2016. From then until now, that's a career for some players and in between that time, OBJ has dealt with numerous injuries, several of which required surgery.
During the 2017 season, he broke his foot, which required surgery. He had core muscle surgery leading up to the 2020 surgery. This past year he tore his ACL in Week 7. All the reports out of training camp are that OBJ looks great, but that is a very fast turnaround for ACL surgery. And then there are the countless hamstring and hip injuries he's dealt with over multiple seasons. Whatever player OBJ was in New York, he's not that same player anymore. Age and injuries will do that to anyone.
Odell Beckham's career splits
With Giants (59 games)
* Fantasy points per game (20.5)
* Percentage of games where he finished as a WR2 (top-24) or better (75%)
* Games of 25+ PPR points (18)With Browns (23 games)
* FPG (12.6)
* Top-24 finishes (26%)
* Games of 25+ points (2)— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) July 12, 2021
Sometimes we just need to move on. The idea that a Beckham bounce-back season is coming just doesn't jive. In 2019, he finished as the WR26, just one spot lower than he's being drafted today, despite being two years older and coming off of a torn ACL. That WR26 finish is a little misleading too. He managed to play 16 games in 2019, the first time he had done so since 2016. However, in terms of PPG, he was the WR34 out of receivers that played at least 10 games, which is seven spots lower than his current positional ranking.
The Browns defense is loaded with talent. They have the best backfield tandem in the NFL and it's not even close. All of that leads to the Browns not being a very pass-happy offense. This was illustrated in 2020 when they finished 28th in pass attempts per game. He should be a fine WR3 if he can stay healthy, which has become a monster if, but with the limited volume in Cleveland, I just don't see much of an upside. Certainly not one that outweighs the risk.
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