Overvalued, Undervalued Trade Targets - Buy/Sell for Fantasy Baseball (Week 2)

Making the right trades can be crucial to championship success in fantasy baseball, almost as much as the draft, if not more. While most trades can have a significant impact on your fantasy team, it’s the deals where you acquire undervalued players and then see their production improve that can really tip the scales in your favor where the standings are concerned.

The same can certainly be said about trading away players at the right time when they have the most fantasy trade value. Those deals could happen in the second week of April or the last week of August, but they’re impactful all the same.

Here are some undervalued candidates to pursue in trades and some overvalued ones who you should consider dealing for if they presently occupy a spot on your roster.

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Undervalued Players To Trade For

Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros

The shortstop had a strong rookie season last year, hitting .253 with a .289 on-base percentage, 22 home runs, and 11 stolen bases in 558 plate appearances for the American League West club. He also added 72 runs scored and 63 RBI, providing quality counting stats in a stacked Houston lineup.

Despite a slow start to the 2023 season – Pena started play Wednesday hitting.160 with a .276 on-base percentage and a stolen base in 29 plate appearances – he’s definitely someone to trade for in the early going, especially for fantasy managers who missed out on an elite shortstop early in drafts or are dealing with injuries at the position.

Pena’s place in the undervalued portion of this column predominantly has to do with opportunity. He looks locked in, for the time being, as the Astros' leadoff hitter while Jose Altuve is on the injured list recovering from a fractured right thumb, having so far hit first every game for the defending champs.

As long as the shortstop continues to bat leadoff, he’ll have an excellent chance at continuing to post strong counting stats, in part due to the players hitting behind him. The Astros obviously have a strong top half of the lineup with Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Abreu, and Kyle Tucker joining Pena, but it’s Bregman in particular who is key for the 25-year-old's fantasy upside.

The third baseman has hit second behind Pena in each game so far this season. Last season, Bregman batted .311 in 179 plate appearances with runners in scoring position last season, the fifth-best average in the league among batters in 2022 with at least 170 plate appearances with runners in scoring position.

Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks

One of the first pitchers to log two starts in 2023, we already have a 10.2-inning sample size where Gallen’s 2023 production is concerned. The results, well, they aren’t exactly eye-popping. Gallen gave up 13 hits, 10 runs, nine earned runs, four walks, and a pair of home runs in those 10.2 innings. That spits out to 8.44 strikeouts per nine innings 3.38 walks allowed per nine frames and 1.69 home runs surrendered per nine innings, not to mention a 7.01 ERA and a 4.92 FIP.

We’re dealing with an incredibly small sample size here, but not too small that one of your league mates might be open to trading Gallen if they're not a fan of the slow start. If that’s the case, he’s certainly someone to try and acquire, especially if you’re in need of pitching.

Because while Gallen’s first two starts were certainly unideal, they came against the Los Angeles Dodgers (on Opening Day) and most recently against the San Diego Padres. Neither is exactly a cakewalk of a matchup. Furthermore, Gallen’s outing against San Diego offers some hope of a more productive run of starts coming soon.

Again, this is small sample size territory here, but despite allowing seven hits, five runs, four earned runs, two home runs, and a walk in six innings against the Padres – as well as registering just three strikeouts – Gallen checked in with a 33% CSW rate. Most times, that type of CSW rate over six innings is going to result in a much better outing for a starter.

Elsewhere, Gallen’s pitch arsenal is generating whiff rates right in line with his 2022 metrics, which – again, in a small sample size – is certainly encouraging for a pitcher who logged a 2.54 ERA and a 3.05 FIP and 192 strikeouts in 184 innings last season.

Zac Gallen In 2023

• Four-Seamer: 44% usage rate, 20.0% whiff rate
• Curveball: 24.6% usage rate, 33.3% whiff rate
• Cutter: 17.1% usage rate, 20.0% whiff rate
• Changeup: 14.3% usage rate, 28.6% whiff rate

Zac Gallen In 2022

• Four-Seamer: 48.1% usage rate, 19.7% whiff rate
• Curveball: 21.9% usage rate, 33.7% whiff rate
• Cutter: 14.8% usage rate, 15.7% whiff rate
• Changeup: 14.2% usage rate, 25.3% whiff rate

Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves

A slow start from a player like Olson, at least on paper, probably isn’t going to impact his fantasy trade value all that much. But he’s been much better than his early numbers suggest, making him a potentially intriguing fantasy trade target in the right situation or deal.

As of the beginning of play on Wednesday, Olson was hitting just .238 with a .304 on-base percentage and a pair of home runs in 23 plate appearances. He’d also struck out 11 times in those plate appearances. That checks out at a 47.8% strikeout rate.

Still, Olson also entered play Wednesday with the third-most barrels in the sport, with four on 10 batted ball events. Furthermore, six of the 10 balls the veteran has put in play have come off his bat at over 100 MPH. This is still a player entrenched in the middle of one of the sport’s best lineups, as well as a player who’s hit 29 or more home runs in each of his last four full seasons, including 73 from 2021 to 2022. The production will only improve from here.

Olson’s strikeout rate should also sharply decline from here on out. The first baseman has struck out more than 25.2% of the time in a season just once in a full season in his career, and that was all the way back in his first full season in 2017 when he logged a 27.8% strikeout rate.

Overvalued Players To Trade Away

Adam Duvall, Boston Red Sox

Adam Duvall has long been a consistent source of power. He’s topped the 30-home run mark three times in his career and has turned in an ISO north of .230 in six of the last eight seasons. So, it should probably come as no surprise that he’s already collected a pair of home runs in his first five games this season.

The veteran outfielder has also added seven runs scored and nine RBI in 24 plate appearances, making for an incredibly fast and productive start to the 2023 campaign. He’s also hitting .476 with a .542 on-base percentage as of the start of play Wednesday.

MLB fWAR leaders right now:

T-1: Gerrit Cole (0.7)
T-1: Adam Duvall and Wander Franco (0.7) pic.twitter.com/pQWmNiy0AB

— YankeesMuse (@YankeesMuse) April 5, 2023

Clearly, the batting average and on-base percentage are going to come down. They’re just not sustainable. It’s more of a question of how far they drop. If the outfielder’s career is any indication, they could drop rather significantly. Duvall hasn’t hit above .240 in any of the last three seasons and managed just a .213 average in 315 plate appearances last year for Atlanta. Overall, he’s hit above .250 just once in his career and has never registered an xBA over .250.

With so much depth at the outfield position league-wide, at least from a fantasy standpoint, now might be an opportune time to capitalize on Duvall’s hot start before the inevitable regression comes. If your team is in a good spot home run-wise, dealing the outfielder for an under-the-radar rotation option like Tylor Megill or a relief pitcher in a ninth-inning committee like Paul Sewald or Michael Fulmer.

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