Overvalued, Undervalued Trade Targets - Buy/Sell for Fantasy Baseball (Week 3)

Making the right trades can be crucial to championship success in fantasy baseball, almost as much as the draft, if not more. While most trades can have a significant impact on your fantasy team, it’s the deals where you acquire undervalued players and then see their production improve that can really tip the scales in your favor where the standings are concerned.

The same can certainly be said about trading away players at the right time when they have the most fantasy trade value. Those deals could happen in the second week of April or the last week of August, but they’re impactful all the same.

Here are some undervalued candidates to pursue in trades and some overvalued ones who you should consider dealing for if they presently occupy a spot on your roster.

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Undervalued Players To Trade For

Teoscar Hernandez, Seattle Mariners 

Hernandez joined the Seattle Mariners in an offseason deal that saw relief pitcher Erik Swanson and pitching prospect Adam Macko head to Toronto.

And while Hernandez isn’t in quite as fantasy-friendly of an environment in Seattle from a surrounding lineup perspective, he’s still making enough quality contact to be a decidedly above-average fantasy option— quality contact that tells a much different story than the .191 average, .255 on-base percentage, two home runs, and .170 ISO the outfielder had put together in 51 plate appearances as of the beginning of play on Wednesday.

Hernandez is still making plenty of loud contact when he gets hold of pitches, with a .485 xwOBAcon that’s actually at least .013 points higher than it was in either of the last two seasons. There’s also a 12.1% barrel rate so far, suggesting the power hasn’t gone away quite yet. Elsewhere, Hernandez’s xwOBA (.371) is over .100 points higher than his wOBA (.273). Throw in a rather low, both in terms of league standards and his career numbers, .226 BABIP and you have a candidate for some serious positive regression.

TeOscar Hernandez since game 2 of the Angels series is hitting .294 with an OPS of .922

It's all coming together. pic.twitter.com/MSTsTuVSfQ

— Cam (@Camden_51) April 13, 2023

That the veteran is continuing to hit in the top half of the Mariners lineup behind some combination of Julio Rodriguez, Ty France, and Eugenio Suarez should only help his RBI metrics once the positive regression comes.

Brian Anderson, Milwaukee Brewers

It’s hard to think that a hitter batting .303 with a .429 on-base percentage and three home runs in 42 plate appearances might be undervalued, but that’s certainly the case with Brian Anderson.

Anderson hasn’t hit above .265 since the 2018 season, although he’s generally posted quality on-base percentage metrics during that span. He’s also never topped 20 home runs in a season and is coming off a two-year stretch in Miami where he hit .233 with a .321 on-base percentage, 15 home runs, and six stolen bases combined in 647 plate appearances from 2021 to 2022.

In short, if one of your league thinks Anderson’s current run of form is a fluke and is willing to move him, now’s the time to acquire the Brewers slugger. Because early indications are his current production is anything but a fluke. The veteran entered play Wednesday with six barrels so far, good for a 27.3% barrel rate and nearly a quarter of the barrels he logged in 383 plate appearances last season.

Elsewhere, Anderson is chasing at fewer pitches out of the zone by a considerable margin. His chase rate is down to 18.6% so far. If he maintains that for the season, it’d be a new personal best by a notable margin. The third baseman and outfielder’s previous career low in the category was 22.3% during the 2018 campaign. So far, both metrics rank in the 90^th percentile or better.

What’s more, the former Marlin is both making contact with more pitches in the zone and making loud contact when he does, with an 81.4% zone contact rate that’s up from his 76.8% metric from 2022 and a .554 xwOBAcon, which was the 17^th-highest in the league as of Wednesday. That’s hardly an unideal combination and one which should continue to benefit Anderson.

Overvalued Players To Trade Away

Chas McCormick, Houston Astros

Chas McCormick, who has had a bit fantasy more value in leagues where on-base percentage is part of the scoring, is hitting .250 with a .341 on-base percentage, two home runs, and three stolen bases in 42 plate appearances this season. With Jose Altuve currently on the injured list, McCormick has moved into the leadoff spot as of late for the Houston Astros.

However, Altuve will be back eventually so any additional fantasy value McCormick is getting thanks to his lineup placement might not continue all season. His strong production might not continue all season either, especially if his quality of contact metrics continue on their current trend.

The outfielder has just one barrel in 47 plate appearances and 25 batted ball events as of the beginning of play on Wednesday. That’s not the end of the world, but it’s not ideal when paired with the 28-year-old’s .158 xBA, .277 xwOBAcon, and 36.0% hard-hit rate. Elsewhere, there’s a stark difference between his wOBA (.364), and his xwOBA (.249).

The fact that McCormick has already stolen three bases – his previous career high was four – is a definite positive. Still, even with a .318 BABIP that is decidedly not sky-high, there seems like there’s regression on the horizon here.

If you can move McCormick perhaps with a decent, but not essential, rotation option for a player with quality underlying stats but unideal surface-level numbers like Hernandez, now might be the time to make a deal.

Tylor Megill, New York Mets

There’s nothing to inherently dislike about Tylor Megill’s fantasy upside. He’s part of the New York Mets rotation, boasting plenty of pitcher-win upside. Case in point, the 27-year-old has won each of his first three outings, striking out 13 batters in 16 innings in the process to go along with seven walks and a pair of home runs allowed, as well as a 2.25 ERA and a 4.72 FIP.

Still, it’s hard to forecast if Megill will be a member of the Mets rotation for the duration of the season with Justin Verlander and Jose Quintana eventually returning. With that in mind, it might be a prudent move to try and trade the right-hander now, especially with a challenging upcoming slate of starts.

If Megill sticks in the rotation for his next three outings – and assuming there are no changes or interruptions – the 27-year-old will take on the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants on the road before a home matchup against Atlanta. Hardly an ideal slate of games.

If your league has injured list slots, now might be the time to try moving Megill in a larger deal for an injured pitcher who might not immediately come off the injured list like Carlos Rodon or Tony Gonsolin. The second step to that deal is adding a useful streaming starter off waivers or free agency.

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