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Making the right trades can be crucial to championship success in fantasy baseball. It's almost as important as the draft, if not more. While most trades can have a significant impact on your fantasy team, it’s the deals where you acquire undervalued players and witness their production improve that can truly tip the scales in your favor in terms of the standings.
The same can certainly be said about trading away players at the right time when they have the most fantasy trade value. Those deals could happen in the second week of April or the last week of August, but they’re impactful all the same.
Here are some candidates who are currently undervalued and worth pursuing in trades, as well as some overvalued players who you should consider dealing if they currently occupy a spot on your roster.
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Undervalued Players To Trade For
Pablo Lopez, SP, Minnesota Twins
Pablo Lopez is missing bats at a career rate in his first season with the Twins after being traded as part of the Luis Arraez deal during the offseason. Like seriously, across the board, almost every bat-missing stat is on track to be a career-high for the 27-year-old right-hander. Or, at least they would be career highs if the season were to end today.
Among these career-best numbers are a 14.4% swinging strike rate, a 29.5% strikeout rate, a 35.3% chase rate, a 29.9% whiff rate, and 10.78 strikeouts per nine innings. Unsurprisingly, Lopez’s Pitching+ metric – per FanGraphs – ranks rather highly among qualified starters. The veteran’s 110 metric in the category is tied for the second-best in the entire league, along with three other pitchers, behind only Spencer Strider.
With all that said, what is a bit more surprising, is that Lopez is sporting a 4.27 ERA. After three straight seasons in Miami with an ERA below 4.00, his 4.27 ERA would be the highest in a full season since the 2019 campaign. While that number certainly isn't ideal, it could give the manager in your league second thoughts about Lopez after drafting him.
Pablo López, Nasty Changeups. 👌 pic.twitter.com/6knD7diZNf
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 20, 2023
Not only is Lopez’s ERA considerably distanced from his 3.57 FIP, but he also gets a quality fantasy slate to close out the first half of the season. Assuming the Twins' rotation continues as is without any interruptions or changes, Lopez’s final two starts prior to the All-Star break will come on the road in Baltimore and at home against Kansas City.
The Baltimore start will come against an Orioles team that has been decidedly middle-of-the-road in scoring runs in the month of June. On top of that, Camden Yards has been more on the pitcher-friendly side of things this year. As of Wednesday, 15 other Major League stadiums had a higher park factor for runs scored, while 19 had a higher park factor for home runs, per Statcast.
Then there’s the start against the Royals, which comes against a club with the third-fewest runs scored this season overall and the fewest runs scored this month. It will also pit Lopez against a Kansas City club that recently lost Vinnie Pasquantino for the season due to shoulder surgery.
Overvalued Players To Trade Away
Yusei Kikuchi, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
The good news, so far this season, is that Yusei Kikuchi isn’t walking batters at the same high rate that he posted last season. Kikuchi is walking 2.69 batters per nine innings as of the beginning of play on Wednesday, June 21, which is much more in line with his career numbers.
Yusei Kikuchi's BB/9 Numbers By Season:
- 2019: 161.2 IP, 2.78 BB/9
- 2020: 47 IP, 3.83 BB/9
- 2022: 100.2 IP, 5.19 BB/9
- 2023: 77 IP, 2.69 BB/9
Fewer walks have certainly helped the right-hander maintain a lower ERA, despite a slight downturn in strikeouts. The 32-year-old’s strikeouts per nine-inning rate is down from 11.09 in 2022 to 9.00 this year. Overall, he’s sporting a 3.97 ERA. What’s more, the veteran has been reasonably consistent lately. Prior to six shutout innings against the Marlins on Tuesday, June 20, Kikuchi had allowed exactly two runs in each of his last four starts while throwing either 4 2/3 or five innings.
The recent run of form has certainly been a positive for both the Toronto Blue Jays and fantasy managers. But now might be the time to capitalize on this run of form in a trade because there are some serious warning signs in terms of regression.
Yusei Kikuchi, Wicked Sliders. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/uR5tu1KLd0
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 20, 2023
The most glaring sign is a 5.42 FIP, but the reality is that despite a lower BB/9 rate, opposing batters are simply making too much loud contact against Kikuchi. Overall, the former Mariner ranks in the 38th percentile or lower in terms of xBA (.252, 38th), xwOBA (.343, 25th), hard-hit rate (44.4%, 21st percentile), barrel rate (11.2%, 15th percentile) and xSLG (.492, 12th percentile)
The right-hander has also been decidedly worse on the road, something that could cap his upside moving forward this season, especially in tougher matchups.
Yusei Kikuchi's 2023 Splits:
- Home: 30.1 IP, 3.56 ERA, 5.16 FIP, .323 wOBA 10.38 K/9, 3.56 BB/9, 1.29 WHIP
- Away: 46.2 IP, 4.24 ERA, 5.59 FIP, .352 wOBA, 8.10 K/9, 2.12 BB/9, 1.29 WHIP
And while the league’s new schedule means Kikuchi won’t have to face the daunting American League East quite as much as he would have in seasons past, the overall amount of loud contact being surrendered here is certainly something to avoid.
Jon Gray, SP, Texas Rangers
Jon Gray’s season has very much been a tale of two halves. On one hand, the 31-year-old started the year with a 4.40 ERA and a 6.10 FIP over his first 30 2/3 innings (six starts) for the Texas Rangers. He punched out 19 batters and surrendered 14 walks over that span as well. If you’re doing the math at home, that checks out to 5.58 strikeouts and 4.11 walks per nine innings. Not ideal.
Things were markedly different over his next six starts, however. Gray pitched to a microscopic 0.84 ERA and a 2.77 FIP over 43 innings, striking out 44 batters while allowing just six walks. Where the two-halves analogy goes a little off the rails is the fact that Gray was tagged for six hits, six earned runs, and three walks over 2 1/3 innings in his last start on Sunday, June 18.
The reality is that with a 2.96 ERA and a 4.21 FIP, Gray is better than his initial struggles would indicate. Though in truth, he probably won’t be quite as effective as his recent stretch of strong performances. Moving forward, he’ll likely be somewhere in between, though if his underlying metrics are any indication, his ERA might be closer to his FIP than his season-long ERA.
Gray ranks in the 46th percentile in xwOBA (.319), the 37th percentile in xBA (.253), and the 42nd percentile in strikeout rate (21.7%). He’s done a solid job in avoiding walks (7.7% BB rate, 59th percentile) and barrels (6.8% rate, 66th percentile). However, it doesn’t quite all add up to a pitcher who looks like a solid bet to maintain a sub-3.00 ERA for the entirety of the season. Especially considering Gray’s 101 Pitching+ metric that ranks behind 34 other qualified starters.
The right-hander should still be a solid rotation option for fantasy managers moving forward. But if a manager in your league thinks Gray’s more likely to maintain his ERA than see it slide toward his FIP as the season progresses, now might be the time to explore a trade.
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