RADIO
For hardcore dynasty fantasy football gamers, trading is a year-round activity. There are always deals to be made in active leagues. But if you're more of a casual dynasty player or find yourself in a league that loses some steam during the offseason, now is your time. With the NFL regular season less than six weeks away and the preseason coming even sooner, dynasty managers everywhere are logging back into their accounts and analyzing their rosters. They may decide to contend or tank this upcoming season and put some players and picks on the trade block.
If you have taken a look at your lineup and are ready to send out some offers, it's important to grasp how players are currently being valued in the ever-changing dynasty landscape. Speaking from experience, one of the worst feelings is opening a completely lopsided offer moments after the adrenaline rush of a trade proposal notification.
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Undervalued Fantasy Football Dynasty Trade Targets to Buy
A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles
There were other lower-tiered players I strongly considered featuring here, but why not kick things off with a bona fide stud? A.J. Brown has proven to be exactly that since arriving in Philadelphia, finishing as the fantasy WR5 and WR7 in his two seasons as an Eagle, respectively. He is widely accepted as a top-10 dynasty receiver. So how is Brown undervalued?
There was a time last season when Brown was considered a top-3 wideout in dynasty. This began right around Week 6 with Brown in the middle of the best stretch of his career. After a disappointing start to the 2023 campaign, Brown became the most unstoppable force in the league from Weeks 3-8.
A.J. Brown is the first WR in NFL history to have 125+ rec yds in six straight games 🦅
9 REC, 131 YDS
9 REC, 175 YDS, 2 TD
6 REC, 127 YDS
7 REC, 131 YDS
10 REC, 137 YDS, 1 TD
8 REC, 130 YDS, 2 TD pic.twitter.com/HrwOjfiNkm— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) October 29, 2023
This output placed Brown firmly in the first tier of dynasty receivers alongside Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase. Unfortunately, he was unable to carry this momentum into the second half of the year, and neither was his team.
The Eagles, who were 8-1 through their first nine games, struggled mightily after their Week 10 bye, going 3-5 to close the regular season before being flat-out embarrassed by the Buccaneers in a 32-9 Wild Card loss. Although Brown was healthy up until Week 18, he managed just one 100-yard performance and failed to post a single WR1 showing between Weeks 11-17.
While it remains to be seen if Brown and Philly can get back on track in 2024, there are explanations for their sudden collapses last year. The pass defenses the Eagles faced after Week 10 were much stronger than those they feasted upon to open the season. Offensive coordinator Brian Johnson did not do them any favors, either, as his stale and predictable play-calling became even more apparent down the stretch.
Understandably, the team moved on from Johnson in January and quickly hired his replacement, Kellen Moore. Things did not go as planned for Moore as the Chargers OC last year, but he led one of the most potent passing attacks in the NFL during his time in Dallas from 2019-2022.
It isn't so often that you can acquire an elite asset in his prime at a discount, so take advantage of the market while you can. Brown just turned 27 years old and signed a massive extension to stay in Philadelphia through 2029. He is all but guaranteed to climb the ranks again when he starts to score fantasy points this season.
Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans
This next trade target is a bit more of a gamble. Tyjae Spears is entering his second professional campaign after a rookie season that largely saw him serving as a change-of-pace option to Derrick Henry.
It was never a secret that Henry would be departing Tennessee this offseason. That is precisely why Spears' value continued to rise throughout 2023 despite his limited opportunities. What came as a bit of a surprise, however, was that the Titans wasted no time signing Tony Pollard to a three-year, $24 million contract at the start of free agency.
Spears isn't going to get a workhorse role, but it's unlikely the Titans ever planned on giving him one. Spears proved to be effective last year as a complement to Henry, both on the ground and as a pass-catcher. Similarly, Pollard was at his best when serving as a complement to Ezekiel Elliott in Dallas. When given the reins last season, Pollard did not deliver the same impact he had in years prior. He was one of the least efficient players in the league from a fantasy perspective.
Because of his underwhelming numbers, many believe Pollard, who turned 27 in April, is washed. I'm not here to make that claim. I'd rather make the case for Spears regardless of Pollard's production in 2024.
The Titans dismissed head coach Mike Vrabel in favor of the offensive-minded Brian Callahan, who most recently served as the Bengals offensive coordinator from 2019-2023. Callahan worked with Matthew Stafford, Derek Carr, and Joe Burrow in some of their most productive seasons and will look to help quarterback Will Levis take a second-year leap. And all summer, Callahan has hyped up his running back duo as a 1A-1B tandem.
Brian Callahan: I view Tyjae Spears, Tony Pollard as two starters. https://t.co/bfLe4F4ApM
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) July 23, 2024
While this type of coach talk can often be frustrating for fantasy managers, it is completely logical to take Callahan at his word. Pollard is being paid handsomely and Spears was electric when on the field as a rookie. It is also worth noting that Spears garnered 70 targets in 2023, more than Pollard amassed in any of his five seasons as a Cowboy.
As for who will yield more fantasy scoring this season, it's a genuine toss-up between Spears and Pollard. But Spears is just 23 years old with far less mileage than Pollard and likely has the upper hand as a receiver in what should be a revitalized passing offense. If he can be acquired from a win-now squad with concerns about his usage this year, don't hesitate to send an offer.
Overvalued Fantasy Football Dynasty Trade Targets to Sell
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
Yes, you read that correctly.
Christian McCaffrey is the best running back in the NFL and is perhaps even more valuable in fantasy than he is in real life. That's how dominant CMC has been for fantasy managers throughout his career. And however tempting it may be to keep McCaffrey on your roster and chase championships until he retires, there is always a "right" time to trade away veterans before their inevitable decline. Identifying that time can be difficult.
For running backs, the age-29 season is typically the one that is feared.
Don't over-predict age declines for elite RBs.
Among RBs with multiple top-12 fantasy finishes in their careers, we're looking at:
Until Age 28: Little to no production dropoff
Age 29/Age 30 seasons: ~72% of career average production
Age 31+ seasons: ~50% career average
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) July 18, 2024
The thread above goes on to mention that McCaffrey is 28 years old. He will play out this entire season at that age and is yet to show any remote signs of slowing down from a statistical standpoint. In a redraft league, he's the consensus 1.01 for good reason.
In dynasty, though, McCaffrey is the only running back over the age of 26 with a startup ADP inside the first three rounds. To get him on your team, you'd most likely have to invest your first-round startup pick. To acquire him in a trade, multiple first-round rookie picks could be a starting point.
On certain rosters, it's a fine idea to keep McCaffrey and go all in for a title this year. Most teams, however, could benefit from trading McCaffrey away for a package of assets. This could include a younger running back if you're looking to plan for the future, or even a fellow veteran who has a chance of finishing as an RB1 such as Derrick Henry or James Conner.
The overarching point here is that running backs are risky investments in dynasty. Tony Pollard, who was discussed above, was the RB5 on KeepTradeCut right before the start of the 2023 season. He ended the season right around RB20 and now sits at RB30. Sure, unexpected declines come for players at every position, but running backs take more damage and suffer more injuries than quarterbacks, receivers, and tight ends. Subsequently, the average career length for an NFL running back is notably shorter than that of other skill positions.
I would be remiss if I did not briefly touch upon McCaffrey's injury history. He has, for the most part, been healthy since he arrived in San Francisco, but his 2020 and 2021 campaigns in Carolina were derailed by lower-body injuries. Given the sheer volume of touches CMC is fed every week, his risk of injury is increased compared to many of his peers.
Labeling McCaffrey as overvalued in dynasty isn't to say he's overrated or that he won't put up video game numbers in 2024. But this time next year, he is highly unlikely to be worth what he is today, and it's borderline impossible for his value to increase as a 29-year-old running back. Getting a king's ransom for him now just before the season begins makes too much sense.
Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
It's hard to imagine a better situation for Dalton Kincaid this season. With Trent Sherfield Sr., Deonte Harty, Gabe Davis, and Stefon Diggs out of town, there are over 280 targets up for grabs in Buffalo.
As a rookie, Kincaid showcased a very promising upside, earning nearly six opportunities per contest and scoring as a top-12 tight end in PPR formats. He will undoubtedly get more looks from Josh Allen this season, and the Bills should once again find themselves near the top of the league in points scored.
The potential for a breakout season is there, which explains why Kincaid is valued as an elite tight end. To become an elite fantasy performer, he will need to see the field much more than he did last year. 2023's top-8 fantasy tight ends all played on at least 74% of their team's offensive snaps. Kincaid is joined only by Taysom Hill as TE1s who played on fewer than 65%.
Kincaid may not have as much proven target competition as he did last season, but the Bills did address their depleted wide receiver corps both in free agency and the NFL Draft. Curtis Samuel headlines the group of free-agent acquisitions that also include Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mack Hollins, and Chase Claypool. In April's draft, Buffalo used its first selection at pick 33 on Keon Coleman, a highly productive 6-foot-4 wideout from Florida State.
New additions aside, Khalil Shakir can expect to see an increased role in his third season, and the Bills still have Dawson Knox. Knox's NFL stats won't necessarily jump off the page, but the former third-round pick is a good athlete and has been a reliable option in the red zone. Although Kincaid is the more gifted player, we should not expect Knox to just go away.
“From the looks of things on the first day of camp, those expecting Kincaid to usurp the full-time role from Dawson Knox this year and push the veteran tight end into a backup may have their hopes dashed. Both Kincaid and Knox worked heavily with Allen throughout the first… https://t.co/m7T8nZewp3
— 32BeatWriters (@32BeatWriters) July 25, 2024
Unless you are playing in a format that awards additional points for tight-end receptions, the position ultimately doesn't matter very much. Of course, hitting on an outlier Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews season can win you a league, but the vast majority of tight ends score fantasy points at a replaceable rate. The difference in points between last season's TE1 and TE6 was greater than the gap between TE12 and TE26. This may sound like a cherry-picked statistic, but in previous seasons, the drop-off from the top scorers was even more severe.
Unless Kincaid establishes himself as the top dog in Buffalo and nearly doubles his rookie season production, he's not going to live up to the hype he's getting right now. I would strongly consider trading him for a package including a lesser-valued tight end or straight up for a value-adjacent player at a more premium position.
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