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The 2023 NFL season starts on Thursday night, but plenty of fantasy football managers will be drafting the night before kickoff. For last-minute drafters like myself, it's important to get as much key information as you can before you're on the clock and ready to compete with your league mates.
Tight ends are always difficult to project and analyze, and avoiding the three players at the position mentioned in this article could save you from burning a draft pick that won't pay dividends.
Let's dive into three overvalued tight ends in 2023 fantasy football drafts.
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Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
ADP: 109.49, TE11
Dalton Kincaid had a monster final season at the University of Utah, catching 70 passes for 890 yards and eight touchdowns. He was selected by Buffalo as the first tight end off the board in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft, which has understandably given him sky-high expectations in his rookie season.
He'll be playing with one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and the lackluster target competition outside of Stefon Diggs gives fantasy managers reason for optimism for the 23-year-old tight end.
However, it's time to pump the breaks on a year-one breakout.
Kincaid is being drafted as the TE11 via FFPC ADP. Last year's TE11 in half-PPR scoring, Juwan Johnson -- totaled 113.8 fantasy points. Since 2010, just six rookie tight ends have eclipsed the 113.8-point threshold. Only three have scored at least 113.8 fantasy points since 2017.
Ultimately, the odds to pay off at his cost are stacked against Kincaid, who isn't a generational tight end prospect by any means. Notable first-round tight ends including T.J. Hockenson, Noah Fant, Hayden Hurst, and David Njoku either took multiple seasons to produce or have yet to excel in the NFL.
Many analysts are pointing toward Kincaid being utilized as a wide receiver, but he'd be one of the worst prospects to be selected in the first round in recent memory if you compared his prospect profile among wideouts.
Every season, there are numerous players pushed up in drafts due to the offensive environment they are set to play in who ultimately bust. Kincaid feels like he's going to be that guy this year, and betting against rookie tight ends has been the right move the overwhelming majority of times.
Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans
ADP: 127.96, TE14
Okonkwo was a fantasy darling this offseason after posting 3.26 yards per route run (1st among TEs), 14.1 yards per reception (first), and 9.8 yards per target (second) as a rookie. It looked like he could ascend to TE1 territory after the departure of Austin Hooper and Robert Woods.
Then, DeAndre Hopkins signed with the Titans.
Okonkwo is sure to be behind Hopkins and Treylon Burks in Ryan Tannehill's target pecking order, and although the passing volume should be up in Tennessee under new offensive coordinator Tim Kelly -- it's tough to see a path toward real upside for the Maryland product.
The 31-year-old Hopkins still ranked among the top eight wideouts in target share (29.4%) and target rate (29.6%) last year in his final season with the Arizona Cardinals. Whether you believe he'll take a step back or not, it's almost a certainty that Tannehill will pepper him with looks early and often. Burks, who had a knee injury scare this offseason, looks ready to go and is expected to become a much more significant piece of the Titans offensive attack in year two of his career.
Okonkwo's ADP has dropped over the last few months, but it's still too pricy given the circumstances he'll face in 2023. If he was priced outside the top 17 or 18 tight ends, he'd be an interesting bench stash and best ball option. However, you're sacrificing taking high-upside handcuff running backs like Tank Bigsby and Elijah Mitchell in this range of the draft at his current ADP.
Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints
ADP: 142.27, TE17
Johnson, a converted wide receiver turned tight end, posted an impressive TE1 season in a mediocre offense last season. The Oregon product posted 42 receptions for 508 yards and seven touchdowns.
However, his high touchdown rate should see negative regression, and there will be additional target competition in 2023. Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed should be more involved in the passing game this season, and the Saints added Foster Moreau and brought back Jimmy Graham to its tight end room.
The crowded skill position group also includes Jamaal Williams, Kendre Miller, Alvin Kamara, (three-game suspension), and A.T. Perry. Ultimately, it's a tough target pecking order to figure out, especially with new franchise quarterback Derek Carr running the offense.
Chris Olave will be a fantasy stud, but putting too much trust in any of the other Saints' pass-catchers feels like a trap. Johnson is an easy fade given his relatively expensive cost among tight ends.
At his range in fantasy drafts, go for Damien Harris or Gerald Everett -- who have much clearer paths to upside.
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