Overvalued Running Backs to Fade on Draft Day

Over the course of the offseason, the average draft position (ADP) of each player is set by fantasy football enthusiasts from around the globe based on projected production and expected fantasy value. As a result, we have the ability to make educated guesses as to which players are undervalued and which players are overvalued based on ADP.

What fun would it be if everybody had the same exact opinion on a player's perceived fantasy value? There'd be no edge to be had in fantasy drafts, which are fun and exciting because we all have different opinions on players. In this article, I'll dive into five running backs I believe are being overvalued by the masses in 2021.

Note: ADPs are half-point PPR from FantasyPros.

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Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans

ADP: #3 Overall, RB3

Henry joined elite company last season, becoming the eighth running back in NFL history to eclipse the 2,000-yard mark last season. But if history tells us anything, he won't rush for 2,000 yards again in 2021. In fact, he may not even come close. Barry Sanders came closest to replicating his 2,000-yard season in 1997 by following it up with 1,491 rushing yards the following season. No other running back has come within 600 rushing yards of replicating their 2,000-yard season.

Why does that matter? Well, Henry had a record-breaking 2020, but still managed to finish just fourth amongst running backs in half-PPR points per game (20.2). Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, and Alvin Kamara all finished ahead of him.

Currently, Henry is ranked as RB3 by the consensus. To be the RB3 this season, he'll likely have to rush for 2,000 yards again, and that's just highly unlikely. Not saying it can't be done, but it's not likely. He just hasn't been used enough in the passing game for me to believe that'll change much this season. He averaged his most targets per game last season, and it was still only 1.9 targets per game. Nick Chubb was at 1.6 targets per game and he finished as the RB6 in half-PPR points per game.

Henry absolutely has a chance to be a top-5 RB once again in 2021, but at RB3, we're drafting him at his ceiling, expecting another historical rushing season from the 27-year old.

Saquon Barkley, New York Giants

ADP: #8 Overall, RB7

There's no denying Barkley is one of the most talented running backs in the NFL. In fact, I think that's the part we can all agree on. The issue I have with Saquon this season is two-fold. First, I'm having to use a premium mid-first-round pick to get him. Second, I'd be assuming he picks up right where he left off in 2019, prior to the torn ACL in 2020.

Here's something else that's concerning -- his target volume -- the thing that made him the overall RB2 his rookie season...

In PPR formats, we want our running backs to be targeted as much as humanly possible. Based on the numbers, it doesn't look like Saquon will have that same ceiling with Daniel Jones that he had his rookie season with Eli Manning.

And there's a chance he doesn't even play until Week 3.

Oh, and PFF ranked this Giants offensive line unit as the worst in the NFL.

Entirely too much risk in drafting Saquon as the sixth or seventh running back off the board in the middle of the first round this season.

Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders

ADP: #32 Overall, RB17

Just how bad was Josh Jacobs in 2020? So bad the Raiders thought it was necessary to give Kenyan Drake a guaranteed $11M. That's more guaranteed money than the Seahawks just gave Chris Carson. Whether we want to believe it or not, that's a signal Drake will have a sizeable role in the offense.

Despite having the third-most rush attempts per game last season (18.2), Jacobs finished as just the RB12 in half-PPR points per game. In his rookie season, he averaged the fourth-most rush attempts per game (18.6) but again finished as just the RB13 in half-PPR points per game. He also led the league in red zone carries in 2020 (64). Drake finished fourth with 56.

Despite a top-five workload, Jacobs couldn't crack the top-1o in fantasy points per game in either of his first two seasons. His fantasy value is predicated on volume, and lots of it. He's averaged just 4.3 yards per carry in his career. He's also averaged just 2.6 targets per game in his career. Prior to last season, Drake really thrived as a pass-catcher throughout his career, and will likely be utilized as such in Las Vegas.

Jacobs was already trending down even before the Drake signing after averaging just 3.9 yards per carry last season. The Drake signing signals to me that the team isn't comfortable using Jacobs in a featured role like years past. RB17 almost feels like his ceiling this season.

Mike Davis, Atlanta Falcons

ADP: #56 Overall, RB25

Mike Davis was the RB25 in half-PPR points per game last season. That was with the opportunity of a lifetime as the workhorse back for the Carolina Panthers after Christian McCaffrey went down.

The 28-year old journeyman has averaged just 3.7 yards per carry in his six-year career. His workout metrics (per PlayerProfiler) don't exactly jump off the page either.

The only reason we're drafting Mike Davis with the 56th overall pick is that we expect him to be the starting running back for the Falcons. That's fair, but nothing about his historical production or athletic profile should give us the confidence he can hold onto the job this season.

While it may not look like a committee right now, the Atlanta backfield could easily become just that this season. I'm not willing to spend the 56th overall pick on Davis when instead I could have a potential top-15 wide receiver like Tyler Lockett, D.J. Moore, or Diontae Johnson.  Tread lightly.

David Johnson, Houston Texans

ADP: #88 Overall, RB35

According to Aaron Reiss of The Athletic, Johnson has acknowledged his reduced role heading into the 2021 season. There were moments last season where he looked good, but remember, he was playing with Deshaun Watson. Teams couldn't stack the box against the Texans last season like they'll be able to this season against Tyrod Taylor or Davis Mills.

The Texans also brought in backfield competition in the form of Phillip Lindsay and Mark Ingram II. Lindsay has actually been pretty good in his three-year career, averaging 4.8 yards per carry and topping 1,000 yards in his first two seasons with the Broncos.

Johnson's fantasy value in Arizona was predicated on the heavy target share. Last season, he averaged 3.8 targets per game, and that was in large part due to the Week 15 game vs. the Colts when he saw 11 targets from Watson.

It's telling that Johnson has already acknowledged a reduced role heading into the 2021 season. Add in the fact that the Texans aren't likely to win more than four games, plus the added backfield competition, and you've got a recipe for failure for the 29-year old.

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