Overpriced Hitters According to ATC Projections

July 18, 2020

With baseball set to have a shortened season, RotoBaller's Ariel Cohen has updated his ATC projections. Nicklaus Gaut turns these projections into fantasy dollars and takes a look at the most overpriced hitters compared to their NFBC ADP.

RotoBaller is fortunate to have 2019's most accurate ranker, Ariel Cohen, to give us his updated ATC projections. I have taken those projections and turned them into fantasy dollars, ranking them accordingly. By comparing these rankings to the latest NFBC ADP data, we can see which players ATC likes at their draft price, and who should be passed on.

We'll start with the veggies first and take a look at players being drafted in the top-100 who don't appear to be worth their current cost. Projections aren't foolproof and there is bound to be some wild stuff in this short-sample season. But since its release, ATC has proven to be one of the best forecasting systems available and it's wise to look at some of the price discrepancies that it has found.

For a look at the underpriced hitters, check my previous article here.

Methodology

To work out the fantasy values, I applied a z-score methodology to ATC projections. I first ran the projections through the Fangraphs auction calculator and made my cutoff line at -$5.0. This left me with 210 hitters above the cutline. I then applied my own z-score method to this revised player pool, turning the z-scores into fantasy dollars based on a 67/33 hitter-pitcher split.

Slotting each player into their most important eligible position left me with the following distribution:

Along with my calculated dollar values, I used NFBC ADP since April 15th, which left me with a sample pool of 30 drafts. Below are the 70 hitters being drafted within the top-100, along, what number hitter they're being drafted as, what number hitter ATC projects them as, and the difference between the two ranks:

Matt Olson (1B, OAK) - 45 ADP

ATC Projections: 230 PA - 14 HR - 30 R - 36 RBI - 0 SB - .257 AVG

Now up to a 45 ADP from a 66 ADP in January, the Matt Olson hype train is for real! Being drafted behind only Freddie Freeman and Pete Alonso at first base, Olson excels in home runs and RBI, with his projected 14 HR tied for the eighth-most and his 36 RBI projected as the 13th highest.

Hitting in the middle of a potent Oakland lineup, Olson's projected run total is solid but he carried a z-score only slightly above average in the category. The problem with looking for more is that while the top half of Oakland's lineup is really strong, the bottom half is less so. Olson is followed in the order by Mark Canha, Khris Davis (who may or may not be mentally broken), and Stephen Piscotty. Those guys will hit plenty of bombs in plenty of the alternate timelines in the multiverse...And strikeout 50% of the time in plenty more.

Best-Case Scenario

Five more hits? That doesn't sound like a lot but it would jump Olson to a .282 AVG and would make him the #27 hitter; just slightly ahead of Alonso. While that would represent a career-high (previously his .267 AVG from last season) it's not that outlandish of a number is such a short sample of games. Especially seeing that Olson posted a .276 xBA in 2019, along with a 14.5% Brl% that was in the top six percent of baseball.

Whit Merrifield (2B/OF, KC) - 56 ADP

ATC Projections: 239 PA - 5 HR - 30 R - 22 RBI - 8 SB - .288 AVG

I'm not sure any positon has more volatility than second base and I think Ozzie Albies might be the only player I totally trust. Merrifield's line is fine but just not fine enough to justify a near top-50 draft price. He's far below average in the power and RBI departments, with 19 second basemen projected to hit more than Merrifield's five HR and 18 projected for 22 RBI or more. While he's projected for more stolen bases than all of his peers, thefts don't appear to be a major value driver in a short season.

Where Merrifield really shines is in the batting average department, with a .288 AVG over 239 PA. But he has the misfortune of playing a position where multiple players have similar hit tools, with Luis Arraez, Jose Altuve, DJ LeMahieu, Ketel Marte, and Howie Kendrick all projected for a more valuable mark.

Best-Case Scenario

Like we'll see with his teammate later, what Merrifield really needs is a better team. Or, at least a better offense. Leading off for the Royals, Merrifield is followed by Mondesi and Jorge Soler, so perhaps his runs scored could bump up. But the bottom of the order includes the likes of Maikel Franco and Nicky Lopez, likely dashing any hopes of Merrifield dramatically increasing his RBI total. Likewise, thoughts of a dramatic power surge are also probably foolish.

Merrifield only stole 20 bases last season but he did steal 45 bases in 2018 and 34 in 2017. If he dials back the clock and steals 12 bases instead of the projected eight, Merrifield would jump from hitter #66 to #44. If you give him a .301 AVG by adding three more hits (Merrifield hit .302 in 2019 and .304 in 2018) then he would move up to hitter #27. But that's a lot of ifs for someone currently being drafted as hitter #36.

Ketel Marte (2B/OF, ARI) - 36 ADP

ATC Projections: 233 PA - 9 HR - 31 R - 28 RBI - 3 SB - .294 AVG

After starting to break out in the second half of 2019, Marte went full ham in 2019, finishing with 32 HR, 92 RBI, 97 runs scored, and 10 stolen bases. But ATC (and other systems) don't seem to agree, with Marte projected to be the #45 hitter while he's being drafted as the #26 hitter. I think Marte is someone who the projections haven't yet captured the player he was in 2019, instead projecting him to be a combination of the player he was in years prior. If you believe that the 2019 version of Marte is the version we'll get in 2020, he'll far surpass his current projections.

Best-Case Scenario

This is easy. Marte just needs to rinse-and-repeat 2019, especially in the power department. ATC projects a home run every 26 PA after Marte hit one every 19.6 PA in 2019. That pace would equate to 12 HR in 2020 and would move him from the projected #45 hitter to #29, putting him right near his draft price.

After a .329 AVG and a .299 xBA that was in the top six percent of baseball, his projected .294 AVG is closer to the floor than the ceiling for me. Giving Marte five more hits (and a .318 AVG) would move him from the #45 hitter to the #26 hitter, which is exactly where he's being drafted. If you give him the extra hits and home runs, then Marte moves up to the #17 hitter, right behind Bryce Harper and Trea Turner.

Even if you don't get either the power or average from last year, I still think Marte could earn his draft price by accumulating more RBI then ATC calls for. The difference is the addition of Starling Marte, who will leadoff in front of Ketel after leadoff was mostly being handled by Jarrod Dyson and Adam Jones in 2019. Both Dyson and Jones posted a .313 OBP last season, while Starling Marte had a .342 OBP.

Adalberto Mondesi (SS, KC) - 36 ADP

ATC Projections: 199 PA - 6 HR - 25 R - 23 RBI - 17 SB - .250 AVG

Perhaps speed doesn't kill? Even though Mondesi's 17 stolen bases lead the projections, they're not enough to make up for his failings everywhere else. His projected line certainly doesn't look bad, just mediocre. The .250 AVG seems low seeing that he's hit .276 and .263 the past two seasons but Mondesi also had a paltry .237 xBA in 2019 and was back up to a 29.8% K-rate. And to steal bases, you actually have to get on base; Mondesi posted just a .291 OBP in 2019 and is projected by ATC for a .287 OBP in 2020.

While his average exit velocity was up slightly, both Mondesi's barrel and hard-hit rates fell, so expecting much more than his projected six home runs is probably unwise. Of the top 100 players, only Whit Merrifield (five) is projected for fewer. If you're looking for Mondesi to be a good source for RBI and runs scored while hitting out of the two-hole, do keep in mind that the Royals are projected to be one of the league's worst offenses even with the blossoming Jorge Soler and a returning Salvador Perez.

I'll admit that I thought that his speed would be a bigger weapon in a shortened season than it appears to be. But maybe I shouldn't have been after my work on pitcher values for the first 50 games of 2019. Just like strikeouts for pitchers, and many of the other counting stats, a short season doesn't give Mondesi's stolen base advantage enough time to compound its fantasy value and really separate from his peers. Like a pitcher who gets by with just his extreme whiffery, speed alone won't be enough to carry players in fantasy in this 60-game sprint.

Best-Case Scenario

While more home runs or a higher batting average would obviously jump Mondesi's value, his best chance for earning back his draft price may lie with his teammates being better. A better offense around him would lead to more runs and RBI but also to more plate appearances. More trips to the plate mean more chances to get on base and then steal one. Out of the current projected number-two hitters in baseball, Mondesi's projected 199 PA trails everyone but Evan Longoria, Niko Goodrum, and Matt Carpenter.

Bo Bichette (SS, TOR) - 50 ADP

ATC Projections: 230 PA - 8 HR - 31 R - 25 RBI - 7 SB - .275 AVG

I hate to throw cold water on the generational party going on in Toronto but a 50 ADP is getting a little out of control for the progeny of Dante. Bichette lit Canada on fire in his 212 PA debut, with a .311 AVG, 11 HR, 32 runs scored, and a record-setting doubles streak. But while he doesn't hurt you anywhere, Bichette also isn't projected to have any standout fantasy traits, with z-scores that are around average in every category except for stolen bases.

Bichette's projected line isn't the problem, it's his price. Shortstop is incredibly deep in 2020 and using a fourth or fifth-round pick on someone with just over 200 PA in the big leagues is a risky move.

Best-Case Scenario

ATC's projections for 60 games in 2020 look a lot like Bichette's 46 games in 2019. The key differences are less power and less average. If Bichette hits 11 HR in 60 games like he did in 46 games last year and has a .299 AVG (five more hits) after hitting .311 in 2019, then his value would jump to the #21 hitter and #5 shortstop.

Yoan Moncada (3B, CHW) - 62 ADP

ATC Projections: 233 PA - 9 HR - 32 R - 29 RBI - 4 SB - .268 AVG

After two ho-hum years in 2017-18, Moncada broke out for real in 2019, slashing .315/.367/.548 with 25 HR and 10 SB. Moncada hit 8 more home runs in 90 fewer plate-appearances and his .315 AVG was a fa-ar cry from a .235 and .231 AVG in the previous two seasons.

He didn't just show up on the fantasy stats, as his Statcast profile in 2019 basically got a Maury Povich-level makeover:

Moncada's 92.8 mph EV was in the top-3% of baseball, his xSLG and xwOBAcon were both in the top-8%, and his .291 xBA was in the top-10% after his .219 xBA the year prior was in the bottom-6%.

However, even with a career-best season, Moncada still only finished as the ninth-best third baseman in 12-team leagues, according to the Fangraphs auction calculator. But it wasn't his performance that kept Moncada from returning top-level value, it was also a strained hamstring that caused him to miss three weeks in August.

However, even prorating his fantasy earnings according to the 650 PA he had in 2018 wouldn't have moved him into the top tier. At 650 PA, Moncada would've gone from $19.7 in earnings to $22.9 but would've only moved up to the #7 third baseman, leapfrogging Yuli Gurriel but still behind Eduardo Escobar. And that's the issue with Moncada; after earning so relatively little in a breakout season, how much would his profile need to improve to earn a fifth-round draft price?

Best-Case Scenario

ATC believes in the power, projecting Moncada to hit home runs at basically the same rate as in 2019, and I'm apt to agree given his fancy new Statcast profile. And ditto on his stolen base rates and totals; 4-5 SB seems about right.

However, ATC projects him for lower rates in terms of his RBI and runs scored and on that point, I disagree. Plugging last year's rates into this year's plate-appearances would give Moncada four more RBI and three more runs scored than what is being projected. These categories are heavily dependant on lineup spot and supporting cast; Moncado is batting second in a lineup that is balanced and looks quite dangerous:

Moncada is in a cushy spot for racking up runs scored with a slew of dangerous bats coming after him. Even if Tim Anderson falls back to earth and drops in the order, Moncada should still have plenty of RBI opportunities as Luis Robert would be Anderson's logical replacement. Robert is an on-base machine, posting over a .350 OBP in Double- and Triple-A in 2019. And Leury Garcia is certainly the weak link in the nine-hole but he's essentially a placeholder for Nick Madrigal, another on-base savant, and who posted a .400 OBP at the two highest levels of the minors last season.

If you instead give Moncada the RBI and run rates he posted in 2019 (adding four RBI and three R), he moves from the projected #57 hitter to the #39 hitter. I don't necessarily love Moncada but I do love that lineup and am more apt to grant him those extra stats. The real question, however, is do you believe the batting average?

It's hard to trust a .315 AVG that followed a .235 and .231 AVG the previous two seasons. Especially when it comes with a .400 BABIP. While his .299 xBA is very encouraging, it's the across the board increase in performance against every pitch type that leaves me most hopeful that Moncada can outhit the .268 AVG that ATC is projecting. Not only did his numbers go up against fastballs, breaking, and offspeed pitches but the increases were backed up by his x-stats:

Let's not get carried away and give him a repeat of the .315 AVG from 2019 but five more hits are reasonable, giving him a projected .292 AVG. Along with the counting stat bumps from above, this batting average increase would push Moncada to the projected #19 hitter and #5 third baseman, only trailing Arenado, Devers, Ramirez, and Rendon.

With 17 eligible players being drafted in the top-100, I think third base is sneakily tricky. The position is top-heavy and if you don't get one of the top four listed above, then you'll be faced with a lot of guys who all have question marks. Uncertainty is fine but becomes more dangerous when you talking about top-100 picks. I don't love Moncada and wish his draft price was about a round later but I could see my way towards him if I don't get one of the top guys. Hitting in the middle of a lineup I absolutely love, Moncada could return elite value if he keeps his upgrades from 2019.

Now that we've gotten our veggies out of the way, we'll head over to dessert next time out and take a deeper look at some of the biggest values that ATC sees in the top-100. Thank you for reading.

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