X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

AL Starting Pitchers: Overvalued and Undervalued

In my pitching strategy article, I laid out my case for drafting three high-floor, high-ceiling starters and then waiting until late for lottery ticket pitchers. I also advised against paying for the pitchers in between, who either lack the ceiling or the floor to justify the price.

In this piece, I'll lay out some top end and lottery ticket pitchers in the American League who are undervalued, and then some overvalued arms to avoid.

Keep in mind, however, that you may not always be able to get the pitchers you need at a discount; sometimes you must pay full price to abide by my strategy. Nonetheless, keep an eye out for these values:

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Undervalued AL Starting Pitchers

High End

Justin Verlander

ADP: 43, SP11
MY RANK: 38, SP7

Browsing the ADP charts, I realized it is hard to find value on top starting pitchers. So, Verlander going later than my valuation of him makes him a good target as one of your top three pitchers. I laid out the case for him last year as a pitcher who had been dominant when not affected by his 2014 core surgery and his 2015 triceps injury. In 2016 he was healthy and proved dominant as a top five starter: 16 wins, 3.04 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 254 strikeouts. Who knows how long he can keep performing, but he’s worth riding for at least one more year.

 

Borderline High End

Lance McCullers  

ADP: 171, SP42
MY RANK: 137, SP29

If you have two strong top pitchers and a strong closer or two, you can stomach the risk of McCullers as your third high-floor, high-ceiling pitcher. If you don’t, his elbow injury that ended his 2016 and his control/WHIP issues could make him too risky. However, last year he posted a whopping 13.0% swinging strike rate. In 36 career starts, he has a 3.22 ERA (3.16 FIP and 3.32xFIP), 10.23K/9, and a 1.33 WHIP. Only 23 years old and in front of a great offense, McCullers will perform if healthy and could easily be a top 10 pitcher if he controls the WHIP.

 

The Lottery Tickets

Dylan Bundy    

ADP: 271, SP72
MY RANK: 167, SP42

You can read my full opinion of Bundy here, https://www.rotoballer.com/dylan-bundy-fantasy-baseball-breakout-candidate/364618. Since that piece, Bundy has begun throwing his cutter/slider in games. While he has noted issues controlling the pitch, and it has not been the plus pitch it used to be, it is still a fourth pitch batters have to look for. Whether it improves, stays the same, or he scraps it altogether, his other three pitches give him a shot a top-25 first half performer, before likely wearing down as the season progresses.

 

Eduardo Rodriguez

ADP: 300, SP81
MY RANK: 195, SP48

Eduardo Rodriguez is another former Orioles’ top prospect ready to shine. After being traded to the Red Sox, he excelled with the change of scenery and had Orioles’ fans screaming “Jake Arrieta” again. But after his hot start, he faced some struggles and injuries. In the second half of last year, the 23 year-old posted a 3.24 ERA, 9.2K/9, a 1.13 WHIP and a 3.48 FIP. This upside and his age make him a perfect late flier.

 

Francisco Liriano

ADP: 315, SP85
MY RANK: 243, SP60

Say what you want about the importance of pitch-framing and catcher ERA, but make no mistake that Liriano has done well pitching to Russell Martin. In 248 career innings pitching to Martin, he has a 2.94 ERA, 9.2k/9 and an OPS against of .621. Last year, he pitched more than two innings to five catchers. He had a 3.04 ERA and 9.3k/9 with Martin; he had ERAs of 5.97, 5.52, 5.02, and 4.58 with the other catchers. Reunited with Martin in Toronto, Liriano has the upside to strike out a batter per inning with an ERA around 3.00, making him a great lottery ticket.

 

Daniel Norris

ADP: 288, SP77
MY RANK: 245, SP61

Daniel Norris is a former top prospect who has battled through a lot the past couple seasons. Nevertheless, here are selected MLB stats from his last three MLB seasons:

IP ERA K/9 BB/9 SWINGING STRIKE %
2014 6.2 5.40 5.40 6.75 7.3
2015 60.0 3.75 6.75 2.85 9.2
2016 69.1 3.38 9.22 2.86 10.5

 

He is trending upward, has shown the ability to get strikeouts, and has prospect pedigree. As a pitcher who is going undrafted in most standard leagues, he is exactly the type of lottery ticket we want to bet on in the last round or two as a breakout candidate.

 

Overvalued AL Starting Picthers

Corey Kluber      

ADP: 24, SP6
MY RANK: 44, SP8

Corey Kluber is great. However, he has enough red flags that he should not be a second-round pick when similar players can be had two rounds later (Verlander) or one round later (Darvish). The red flags? Kluber’s K/9 has declined each of the past three years: (10.27, 9.93, 9.50). His 2016 walk rate was the highest since 2012. Not surprisingly, his FIP and xFIP both rose for the second straight year. His average fastball went from 93.2 in 2014, to 92.6 in 2015, to 92.1 last year. Most likely he will have another great season; but these risks make him less valuable than similar players going later.

 

Rick Porcello     

ADP: 111, SP26
MY RANK: 146, SP32

Porcello falls outside the range of my top three pitchers I target, but he still costs you a high pick. Is that justified? He did win the “Cy Young”, although Kate Upton was none too pleased about that. However, that he ate innings isn’t necessarily a good thing in standard formats. That he won a lot of games reflected a lot of luck, and his offense now lacks last season’s OPS leader (David Ortiz). While his ERA was lower than 2015, he struck out fewer batters (7.63K/9), did not improve his swinging strike rate (8.2%), and induced a career low 43.1% groundballs. Nothing in his 2016 batted ball profile screams that he was a meaningfully different pitcher, and his FIP and xFIP didn’t view him much differently than 2012-2014. Thus, Porcello is likely to be a middle of the road fantasy pitcher, the type of which I like to avoid.

 

Felix Hernandez

ADP: 139, SP31
MY RANK: 266, SP69

King Felix is a good example of a player that someone who has not followed baseball closely for the past couple years will take far too high. Sure, there are some reasons for hope; Hernandez was battling injuries last year, and this year he has added muscle to try to avoid that. But, even his 2015 was a major disappointment by his standards: his K/9 fell significantly, his BB/9 rose significantly, and his ERA shot up almost a point and a half: 3.53 ERA, 8.52K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 1.18WHIP. Last year, he posted a 3.82ERA, 7.16 K/9, 3.82 BB/9, 1.32 WHIP. Remove the name, and this is the profile of a lottery ticket bounceback candidate who should go at the end of drafts, not someone to be drafted in the middle.

Check back tomorrow for my overvalued/undervalued NL pitchers, and follow @rotonails to be alerted of future articles.

 

More Undervalued & Overvalued Picks




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Tom Hoge7 mins ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Zebby Matthews12 mins ago

Twirls Five Shutout Innings At Triple-A
Daniel Jones16 mins ago

Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones To Split First-Team Reps This Offseason
Terry McLaurin25 mins ago

Commanders Interested In Extending Terry McLaurin
Rashee Rice33 mins ago

Expected To Be Ready For Training Camp
Hurston Waldrep35 mins ago

Fans Seven In Win At Triple-A
Garrett Wilson43 mins ago

Jets Plan To Get Garrett Wilson The Ball "As Much As Possible"
Keaton Mitchell49 mins ago

Ravens Have High Hopes For Keaton Mitchell
Angel Genao57 mins ago

Dealing With Shoulder Injury
Derrick Henry59 mins ago

John Harbaugh Wants Ravens To Extend Derrick Henry
Christian McCaffrey1 hour ago

Is Healthy
Clarke Schmidt1 hour ago

To Return April 15 Or 16
Shane Baz2 hours ago

Strikes Out 10
Mike Tauchman2 hours ago

Begins Rehab Assignment
Wyatt Langford2 hours ago

Launches Another Homer
Nathan Eovaldi2 hours ago

Throws Complete Game Shutout
Michael Petersen3 hours ago

Traded To Atlanta
Matt Fitzpatrick3 hours ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners3 hours ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay3 hours ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Reynaldo López3 hours ago

Reynaldo Lopez To Undergo Right-Shoulder Surgery
Gary Woodland3 hours ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia3 hours ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti4 hours ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
NFL4 hours ago

Tush Push Unlikely To Be Banned For 2025 Season
Xavier Legette4 hours ago

Dave Canales Compares Xavier Legette To DK Metcalf
Brett de Geus4 hours ago

Phillies Claim Brett de Geus Off Waivers From Marlins
New York Giants4 hours ago

Ty Summers Re-Signs With New York
Nick Mears4 hours ago

Beginning Rehab Assignment At Triple-A
Aaron Civale4 hours ago

Plays Catch On Tuesday
Masataka Yoshida4 hours ago

Resumes Swinging
Sam Ehlinger4 hours ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Denver
Liam Hendriks4 hours ago

Resumes Throwing
Guerschon Yabusele5 hours ago

Out Against Knicks
Kutter Crawford5 hours ago

Hasn't Faced Hitters
Karl-Anthony Towns5 hours ago

Sits Out Tuesday's Game
Arizona Cardinals5 hours ago

Calais Campbell Returns To Arizona
Lucas Giolito5 hours ago

To Make A Rehab Start On Wednesday
Jevon Carter5 hours ago

Ruled Out Tuesday
Dalen Terry5 hours ago

Unavailable Against Raptors
Brayan Bello5 hours ago

To Make Rehab Start On Tuesday
Julian Phillips5 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Alexis Díaz5 hours ago

Alexis Diaz Throws Live BP On Tuesday
Jalen Smith5 hours ago

Available Against Raptors
Max Scherzer5 hours ago

Day-To-Day After Getting Cortisone Shot
Lonzo Ball5 hours ago

Still Out On Tuesday
Freddie Freeman5 hours ago

Likely Out Until Friday
Kevin Huerter5 hours ago

Cleared For Tuesday's Matchup
Josh Giddey5 hours ago

Will Play On Tuesday
Dalano Banton5 hours ago

Starting Against The Hawks
Royce O'Neale5 hours ago

Unavailable Against Bucks
Jerami Grant5 hours ago

Out Again On Tuesday
Bradley Beal6 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Ron Holland II6 hours ago

Tagged With A One-Game Suspension Tuesday
Anfernee Simons6 hours ago

Ruled Out Versus The Hawks
Trae Young6 hours ago

Officially Available Tuesday
Marcus Sasser6 hours ago

Suspended For One Game On Tuesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo6 hours ago

Will Play On Tuesday
Jimmy Snuggerud6 hours ago

Ready For NHL Debut Tuesday
Isaiah Stewart6 hours ago

Suspended For Two Games On Tuesday
Jacob Trouba6 hours ago

Set To Rejoin Ducks Lineup Tuesday
Jonathan Kuminga6 hours ago

Ruled Out On Tuesday
Troy Terry6 hours ago

On Track To Play Tuesday
Jaylen Brown6 hours ago

Questionable Versus Miami
Jonathan Marchessault6 hours ago

Remains Out Against Blue Jackets
Alex Laferriere6 hours ago

Expected To Return On Tuesday
Luke Schenn7 hours ago

A Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Dante Fabbro7 hours ago

Returns Against Predators
Detroit Lions9 hours ago

Alim McNeill Could Miss Start Of Regular Season
Tennessee Titans9 hours ago

Justin Hardee Sr. Returning To Titans
Washington Commanders9 hours ago

Brandon Coleman Moving To Right Tackle For Commanders
Raheem Blackshear9 hours ago

Returning To Carolina
Kirk Cousins10 hours ago

Not Expected To Attend Voluntary Offseason Training
NFL10 hours ago

NFL Ownership Votes To Move Kickoff Touchbacks To 35-Yard Line
Olli Määttä10 hours ago

Olli Maatta A Game-Time Call On Tuesday
Jordan Greenway10 hours ago

Remains Sidelined On Tuesday
Dallas Cowboys10 hours ago

Cowboys Willing To Make Micah Parsons The Highest-Paid Non-QB
Jordan Staal10 hours ago

Doubtful For Wednesday
Matt Roy10 hours ago

Not Traveling With Team
Geno Smith10 hours ago

Raiders Working On Extension With Geno Smith
Chris Godwin10 hours ago

Buccaneers Optimistic Chris Godwin Will Be Ready For Week 1
Josh Norris10 hours ago

Not Traveling With The Team On Tuesday
Brady Tkachuk10 hours ago

Not Playing On Tuesday
Jordan Spieth12 hours ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp12 hours ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim12 hours ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood13 hours ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau13 hours ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole13 hours ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Casey DeSmith17 hours ago

Sharp In Monday's Victory
Mason Marchment17 hours ago

Tallies Two Helpers On Monday
Adam Klapka17 hours ago

Tallies Two Points In Shootout Victory
Ivan Fedotov17 hours ago

Sharp Against Nashville
Matvei Michkov17 hours ago

Continues Hot Stretch On Monday
Luke Hughes17 hours ago

Scores Goal, Adds Assist In Victory
Sam Stevens1 day ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA1 day ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy1 day ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman1 day ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ilya Samsonov1 day ago

Nursing An Upper-Body Injury
Tomas Hertl1 day ago

To Sit Out At Least One More Week
Ryan Preece1 day ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR1 day ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland1 day ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno1 day ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg1 day ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober1 day ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres1 day ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall1 day ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara1 day ago

Gets Submitted
Ryan Fox1 day ago

Showing Improvement Heading Into The Valero Texas Open
Édgar Cháirez1 day ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales1 day ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.1 day ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira1 day ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez1 day ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas1 day ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez1 day ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Joel Dahmen1 day ago

Scores Top-20 Finish At Texas Children's Houston Open
Jacob Bridgeman1 day ago

Had Some Rest Heading Into The Valero
Christopher Bell2 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott2 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson2 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron2 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano2 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs2 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain2 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe2 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones2 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry3 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano3 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece3 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney3 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Steve Erceg4 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno4 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres4 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober4 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
Joe Pyfer4 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum4 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales4 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.4 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Saimon Oliveira4 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Tyreek Hill - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Three Aging Fantasy Football Players To Sell In Dynasty Leagues

It's hard to always know when to sell off your aging fantasy football players. Often, it's also difficult to accept that it's better to move on from a player when he's coming off a productive season and still has a lot left in the tank. But I believe it's better to be a year early […]


J.J. McCarthy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Draft Sleepers

Five Fantasy Football Superflex Quarterback Breakouts, Draft Targets (2025)

If you’ve ever played in a Superflex fantasy football league, then you know how important quarterbacks are in this format. The ability to start multiple stud quarterbacks can carry you to a Superflex title. Unfortunately, finding two such players isn’t so easy. All the top signal-callers come off draft boards first, and that makes it […]


Omarion Hampton - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks - NFL Draft

Ideal Landing Spots For The Top 12 Fantasy Football Rookies - 2025 NFL Draft

Then, the NFL Draft continues to inch closer and closer. This is a very interesting class, with a handful of players who could be stars in the NFL and reshape fantasy football leagues going forward. Here are the ideal landing spots for the top 12 fantasy football rookies. These picks exist in conversation with each […]


Jalen Coker - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Eight Best Ball Late Round Value Fantasy Football Players To Target For 2025

Fantasy football is the most popular game in all of sports. It has gone from a paper-and-pen game to a multi-million dollar-a-year one. While redraft leagues are the most popular form of fantasy football, best ball leagues are quickly gaining steam. The best part of best ball leagues is the ability to draft thousands of […]


Abdul Carter - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Draft Rankings: Top 10 Fantasy Football Edge Rusher Prospects

Edge rusher is the most important, most coveted, and most highly-paid position on defense in the NFL. It stands to reason that the most important position in the entire game being quarterback, and by a wide margin, means the most important position on defense are the players that are tasked with disrupting opposing QBs as […]


Brock Purdy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Picks

Brock Purdy Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook and Trade Value

Despite becoming the all-time leading passer for the Iowa State Cyclones, Brock Purdy wasn't a highly touted prospect due to his perceived lack of athleticism. The 49ers picked him with the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, but Mr. Irrelevant quickly proved everyone wrong. In his first two years, he started in back-to-back NFC […]


Michael Florio's Football Show - Podcast RotoBaller Network

Florio's Football Show: Scouting NFL Draft Prospects!

Michael F Florio goes over some of the top prospects from this years NFL Draft. Florio talks about what he looks for when watching prospect tape and explains what traits translate best to the NFL level. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (SiriusXM channel 87) on Sundays from 6-7 am. You can […]


Najee Harris - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Dynasty Fantasy Football Buy or Sell: Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, Jordan Mason

One year ago, we discussed the futures of Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Aaron Jones as those free agents found new homes. This year's headliners are Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, and Jordan Mason. Not quite the same. Still, with every transaction come implications for dynasty fantasy football rosters across the globe. Below, we […]


Romeo Doubs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Early 2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Undervalued NFC Draft Targets

While the 2025 fantasy football redraft season is still several months away, there is no such thing as being too prepared for your fantasy draft. Fantasy football is year-round, even for those who only play in redraft leagues. The landscape of fantasy football will change between today and the start of redraft season, with the […]


Detroit Lions Defense, Aidan Hutchinson - Fantasy Football DST Rankings, Streamers, IDP Sleepers

2025 Fantasy Football IDP Sleepers: Five Draft Targets

It's notably difficult to identify sleepers in fantasy football IDP leagues. The skill of the players in question is very important, but situation also plays a large factor, as does a recent history of injuries. Rather than bucketing them into groups, it's better to analyze each one individually, look at where they are in terms […]


Ashton Jeanty - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

Ashton Jeanty's Top Potential Landing Spots For 2025: Fantasy Football NFL Draft Outlook

Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty will enter the 2025 NFL Draft as one of the best prospects in the class. Jeanty just ran for 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns across 14 games this past college season. Those 2,601 rush yards were the second-most of all-time in FBS history, only behind Barry Sanders's 2,628 rush yards […]


Bhaysul Tuten - NFL Draft Prospects, Rookie Rankings

2025 Fantasy Football Rookie Mock Draft: 12-Team, Single QB

The 2025 NFL Combine has now been completed, so it's worth doing another mock draft to see where everyone stands after the league's pre-draft testing event. Overall, there were a few surprises, but the order of many players will remain the same. The mental domain of the original rankings, which have been fairly set in […]


Rashid Shaheed - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Later-Career Breakout Candidates

Typically, most NFL players break out in the early parts of their careers. Between the ages of 20 and 25 is when you expect to see the majority of players have their first big season. Some waste no time and put together excellent years while they're rookies, while some need more time to develop. These […]