Overrated and Underrated NFL Teams - Post NFL Draft Edition

Every season, there will be unexpected NFL teams that make the playoffs. Last year, no one expected the Houston Texans to make the playoffs with a rookie quarterback or the Green Bay Packers to make it with Jordan Love. Even seeing the Los Angeles Rams make the playoffs was a bit of a surprise after a rough 2022 campaign. 

On the flip side of that, we can also expect some teams to miss out on the playoffs -- teams that we thought would easily make it. The Cincinnati Bengals, New York Jets, and Minnesota Vikings all had high playoff odds entering the 2023 season, but due to quarterback injuries, they all missed out.

So, with the 2024 NFL Draft now officially complete, let's look at some of the most overrated and underrated teams heading into training camp. Some of these have been hyped up after a strong draft, while others will enter the season as an underrated unit. So, let's dive in and find out. 

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Overrated NFL Teams 

Seattle Seahawks 

It's been a successful couple of seasons for the Seattle Seahawks. After naming Geno Smith the starting quarterback before the 2022 season, he has led them to back-to-back nine-win seasons. The veteran also led Seattle to the playoffs two years ago before losing to the San Francisco 49ers in the Wild Card round.

While many people believe that the Seahawks can see another 9-8 season or better in 2024, there's a strong chance that they can finish much worse than that. Smith's stats regressed last season and were significantly worse than the prior year. His completion percentage dropped 5.1% (from 69.8% to 64.7%), and he threw for just 3,624 yards and 20 touchdowns. The veteran's quarterback rating also fell from 100.9 to 92.1. As a result, we could see him regress even more this upcoming season. 

Set the standard. pic.twitter.com/O2t1d5jNzU

— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) June 5, 2024

On top of that, Pete Carroll is no longer the head coach of the Seahawks after the team hired Mike Macdonald this offseason. Seattle is also set to face six playoff teams from last year (49ers, Los Angeles Rams, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Green Bay Packers, and Detroit Lions) and three more games on the road that could present some challenges (Jets, Chicago Bears, and Atlanta Falcons). 

Chicago Bears 

The Chicago Bears might have the brightest future in the NFL following their selections of Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze in the first round. The team also went out and acquired veteran wideout Keenan Allen this offseason. But people should pump the brakes on Chicago in 2024. 

Rookie quarterbacks tend to struggle immensely in Year 1 -- unless you are C.J. Stroud. Still, Williams is surely expected to go through some ups and downs as a rookie. The Bears also have some holes on both the offensive and defensive lines that could cause them some trouble. Their offensive line allowed the seventh-most sacks in 2023 (50), and the team didn't really address that problem in free agency or the draft. 

Caleb Williams had some struggles again in both 7 on 7 and full team 11 on 11. Matt Eberflus in Caleb maybe holding the ball too long: “Sometimes it’s really good coverage.” @cbschicago

— Matt Zahn (@mattzahnsports) June 5, 2024

Chicago's defense has some weaknesses as well, especially on the line. Montez Sweat was a great addition for it during the 2023 season, but it doesn't have a second guy to complement him. Right now, the defensive line consists of Sweat, DeMarcus Walker -- who had 3.5 sacks in 2023 -- Andrew Billings, and Gervon Dexter Sr.

The Bears are surely on the way up and should be back in the playoffs in no time. However, they are the clear third-best team in the NFC North behind the Detroit Lions and Packers. 

Pittsburgh Steelers

There are a lot of people who believe that the Pittsburgh Steelers solved their quarterback issues this offseason, and that's all they were missing to compete. Russell Wilson or Justin Fields, though, might not be the right answer for the organization. Wilson hasn't looked the same since leaving Seattle, while Fields has struggled as a passer since entering the league in 2021. 

Of course, whichever quarterback starts for Pittsburgh will be an upgrade over Kenny Pickett. But don't forget, they play in arguably the toughest division in football. With six games against the Bengals, Baltimore Ravens, and Cleveland Browns -- all elite defenses -- Wilson or Fields will need to almost be perfect. 

Both quarterbacks also won't have a solid receiving corps since Diontae Johnson was traded this offseason. That leaves just George Pickens, Van Jefferson, and rookie Roman Wilson as the team's top three wide receivers entering the year. The defense will be great once again with T.J. Watt and newly acquired linebacker Patrick Queen leading that unit, but leaning on Wilson or Fields to lead the offense feels like trouble waiting to happen. 

Underrated NFL Teams

Jacksonville Jaguars 

All the talk this offseason has been about the Texans and their new weapons on offense. Even the Indianapolis Colts, who are welcoming back Anthony Richardson from injury, have been hyped up this offseason. But, there has been very little talk about another team in the AFC South in the Jacksonville Jaguars. 

After finishing with a 9-8 record in 2022 and winning the division, the Jaguars couldn't build on that season in 2023. They finished with a 9-8 record again and couldn't repeat as AFC South champions. However, people often forget that Jacksonville was one of the best teams in the first half of the season. It had an 8-3 record before losing five of the final six games of the season. 

“I think our chemistry is growing every day.”@Trevorlawrencee on @BrianThomas_11 🗣️

— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) June 3, 2024

That poor end-of-season finish likely has it trending down heading into the season, especially after losing WR1 Calvin Ridley in free agency. Nonetheless, don't sleep on the Jaguars this year. They have a Pro Bowl quarterback in Trevor Lawrence and replaced Ridley with an exciting new rookie in Brian Thomas Jr. With an offensive-minded head coach in Doug Pederson, look for Lawrence to get back on track in 2024. 

Los Angeles Chargers 

The Los Angeles Chargers have gone through a lot of changes this offseason. They fired Brandon Staley as their head coach and got rid of both Allen and Mike Williams. The Chargers also chose not to re-sign Austin Ekeler in free agency. But, sometimes, all it takes is the right person in charge to get the team back on the right path. 

Hiring Jim Harbaugh could turn out to be a fantastic hire for the organization, a coach who has had success in both the NFL and college. Now, there's a chance that it takes a couple of years before Los Angeles actually makes the playoffs. However, it is surely underrated entering the 2024-2025 season. 

Los Angeles has a fantastic offensive line led by Rashawn Slater and fifth overall pick Joe Alt, and has one of the best passers in the league in Justin Herbert. The team will need some wideouts to step up, like Quentin Johnston or rookie Ladd McConkey. With a quarterback of Herbert's talent, though, it's possible they can crack the nine-win mark with a last-place schedule in 2024. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The talk all offseason in the NFC South has been the Atlanta Falcons. They signed veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins to a four-year deal and even took Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth overall pick. As a result, Atlanta has been buzzing in the news for most of the spring. Most people have also come out and said that it's the Falcons' division to lose in 2024 -- hence their -115 odds on FanDuel to win the NFC South. 

However, don't forget what the Buccaneers did last season. They finished with a 9-8 record and won the NFC South for the third straight year. Baker Mayfield looked like a new quarterback, and the offense started to click down the stretch. That helped Tampa Bay advance to the Divisional Round in 2023. 

M1️⃣K3️⃣

😍 pic.twitter.com/zluKaQexBz

— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) May 30, 2024

Since then, not much has changed for the Buccaneers, either. Mayfield signed an extension this offseason, Mike Evans got paid, and Antoine Winfield Jr. is locked up for the next four years. With almost the same team coming back, Tampa Bay is being slept on heading into the year. It shouldn't, though, because there's a lot pointing in the right direction for it, including Mayfield, who is coming off a career campaign in 2023. 

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