Overrated and Underrated NFL Teams: AFC Contenders and Pretenders For Wild Card Weekend

Unfortunately, the NFL regular season is over, meaning 18 franchises won't play again until September. However, arguably the most exciting week in sports, featuring six playoff games, is ahead. Even though the postseason is set to begin, we're still critical of a few teams that qualified.

When the NFL expanded the playoffs to allow seven teams from each conference to get in the dance, it opened up the possibility of weaker and potentially undeserving teams to play on Super Wild Card Weekend. That feels like the case this year in the AFC.

Without further ado, let's dive into overrated and underrated AFC teams ahead of the start of the road to Super Bowl 58.

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Most Overrated AFC Wild Card Team

Pittsburgh Steelers

• Record: 10-7
• Seed In NFC Playoffs: No. 7
• Wild Card Matchup: at Bills

While most fans recognize that the Steelers are pretenders, they belong on the top of this list simply because they qualified for the playoffs. Pittsburgh is 21st in the NFL in scoring margin per game (-1.2) and is heading into Wild Card Weekend with T.J. Watt (knee) likely out of action and Mason Rudolph leading the offense.

Mike Tomlin has done another fantastic job getting the historic franchise to the playoffs, but the Steelers are a double-digit underdog in the first round, so there's no reason to expect a magical run. Running into a red-hot Buffalo Bills team is far from ideal, and this AFC contest on Sunday morning could be the biggest blowout of the weekend.

Najee Harris TOUCHDOWN 🔥
pic.twitter.com/DU4wckv4ap

— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) January 6, 2024

Other AFC Pretender(s)

• Houston Texans (10-7)
• Miami Dolphins (11-6)

Houston, led by rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud and rookie head coach DeMeco Ryans, was expected to be one of the worst teams in football. Instead, the franchise won ten games and the AFC South, meaning they'll host the Cleveland Browns in the Wild Card Round.

This accomplishment is nothing short of special, and the future is bright, but the magical run should come to an end on Saturday. Stroud will face the No. 2 defense in DVOA this week, and the Texans' secondary is at risk of being shredded by Joe Flacco and company. A first-round exit is likely.

Miami has been arguably the most fun team to watch during the 2023-24 campaign. Speedsters Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, and De'Von Achane in Mike McDaniel's creative offense are a sight to see, but the offensive fireworks haven't shown up against great teams.

The Dolphins scored just 17.7 points per game against playoff teams compared to 35.5 in all other games. A matchup with a strong Kansas City defense in Arrowhead Stadium is likely to be problematic. To make matters worse, Waddle, Mostert, and a chunk of Miami's defensive starters are dealing with injuries. Unfortunately, this Miami team is looking like a clear pretender, and they may not even make it past round one.

Throwing a breaking route to Chase Claypool in double coverage is an absolutely horrible decision.
pic.twitter.com/88QIstZmAs

— Alfredo Brown (@ThePretendGM) January 8, 2024

Most Underrated AFC Wild Card Team

Kansas City Chiefs

• Record: 11-6
• Seed In NFC Playoffs: No. 3
• Wild Card Matchup: vs. Dolphins

The Chiefs have "disappointed" this season, despite winning 11 games and clinching the AFC West for the eighth consecutive year. Kansas City has rightfully been doubted, but has the criticism gone too far? I think so. Andy Reid's offense still finished eighth in DVOA and Steve Spagnuolo's defense finished seventh in DVOA. The Cowboys, Ravens, and 49ers are the only other three teams to have two top-ten units in DVOA, and those teams are considered top contenders.

The Chiefs will take on a hobbled Miami Dolphins squad to begin postseason action, and then a potential rematch with the Buffalo Bills lies ahead. Kansas City is a fantastic value to win the Super Bowl at +1000 on DraftKings given they have the best player in the world and have won playoff games time and time again. Although the pass-catching group is a concern behind Travis Kelce, it's foolish to completely doubt Reid and Mahomes when it matters most.

MAHOMES TO RICE ‼️

First career touchdown for Rashee Rice.

🎥: @NFL pic.twitter.com/QMFYPkCL4g

— The Sporting News (@sportingnews) September 8, 2023

Other AFC Contender(s)

• Buffalo Bills (11-6)
• Cleveland Browns (11-6)

Buffalo, winners of five straight games, looks as dangerous as any team in the NFL. While teams like the Dolphins and Eagles are stumbling into the postseason, the Bills and Josh Allen are playing their best football of the year. Buffalo will likely have to get by its arch-nemesis Kansas City Chiefs, but for the first time in the Allen vs. Mahomes era, the Bills will be the home team in the playoffs.

The Browns are going to be doubted due to a 38-year-old Joe Flacco leading the franchise, but the team's stop unit led by Jim Schwartz might just be special enough to make them legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Cleveland is favored to beat the Texans on the road, and then a potential matchup with the Baltimore Ravens awaits. Cleveland defeated Baltimore on the road during the regular season, so we can't count them out in that AFC North matchup.

Browns vs. Texans

Saturday, January 13 -- 4:30pm ET on NBC#SuperWildCard #NFLPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/hnY3KW9jhM

— NFL (@NFL) January 8, 2024

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