RADIO
Well, ladies and gentlemen, it's finally here. March has arrived and with it comes the first smattering of conference tournaments. The ASUN, Big South, CAA, Horizon League, Missouri Valley, NEC, Ohio Valley, Patriot League, SOCON, Summit League, and the Sun Belt all tip off this week and will give us our first taste of what the NCAA Tournament field will look like soon enough.
IT'S MARCH 🗣
Let the Madness begin, @JonRothstein pic.twitter.com/3Nwq40Axzi
— FanDuel (@FanDuel) March 1, 2024
Before we get into high-major conferences, there's still a tad bit of the regular season to finish. UConn is only the Power 6 team that has already locked up their league, but teams like UNC, Duke, Houston, Iowa State, Purdue, Illinois, Tennessee, Alabama, South Carolina, Arizona, and Washington State (to name more than a few) are fighting like hell to bring home some early hardware before the real festivities begin.
It's time for the next article of a year-long series: Overrated and Underrated College Basketball Teams after the release of the weekly Associated Press Poll. All rankings listed are based on the Week 18 AP Poll.
Overrated College Basketball Teams For Week 18
Iowa State Cyclones: No. 8 to No. 6
I had the Cyclones on the better side of this analysis when they were a pesky up-and-coming squad that was just entering the Top 25, but now the voters have gotten a little ahead of themselves. I don't blame them at all. Iowa State deserves to be a borderline top-five squad with their resume, currently sitting one game back of first-place Houston in the Big 12. They've only lost four games in conference play, and have won at home vs. No. 2 Houston, No. 7 Kansas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma, while also grabbing wins on the road at Texas, Cincinnati, and No. 19 TCU.
The reason why the Cyclones have been able to hold down a top-10 position for quite some time now is because they have had zero disappointments. At least every other team -- especially in this grueling conference -- has dropped a few stinkers. Not Iowa State.
T.J. Otzelberger and Co. have handled business, going 7-1 against the bottom half of the conference, with that one loss coming in their first Big 12 game at Oklahoma where they were +2.5 underdogs. They were just able to avoid a scare at UCF last week, pulling away late to secure an eight-point victory. The victory put them in striking distance of the elusive Big 12 regular-season title, which may be the toughest piece of hardware to obtain in the sport.
Defense has been Otzelberger's calling card and the Cyclones are phenomenal at creating absolute mayhem on that end of the floor. No. 2 in the country at turnover percentage, Iowa State pressures the ball at an alarming rate that can blow up any team's game plan. However, only having an elite defense rarely wins in March, and the Cyclones just don't have enough firepower to hang with the big dogs. While this team is No. 6 in the country currently, I would bet that zero college basketball media figures have them in their final four.
That, of course, doesn't mean they can't get there. It might even fuel this bunch, who have zero household names in the sport. What worries me is if they run into a team that has an elite, steady hand at the point that can break pressure and not be forced into playing the Cyclones game.
It almost reminds me of the 2013 tournament when VCU and their patented havoc defense were set to be the ultimate giant slayer until they ran into Michigan and National Player of the Year Trey Burke, who were exceptional at taking care of the basketball. That did not end well for the Rams.
In this scenario, Iowa State is the Goliath, but I could see a mid-major David (Vermont/Drake/New Mexico) or lower-tier high-major (Northwestern/Villanova/Michigan State) that is just a horrible matchup for the Cyclones and pulls the upset.
“22 Turnovers are not representative of who we are”#UCF Head Coach Johnny Dawkins speaks on his takeaways from the loss against Iowa State 🏀⚔️ pic.twitter.com/WdxqtMpVcC
— Andrew Cherico (@Andrew_Cherico) March 4, 2024
Underrated College Basketball Teams For Week 18
Indiana State Sycamores: Unranked (No. 6 in Others' Receiving Votes)
It's about time we mentioned one of college basketball's best-kept secrets this season. Robbie Avila, a sophomore forward from Oak Forest, Illinois, is one of the most versatile and savvy players in the country.
He's led the Sycamores to a 26-5 (17-3 MVC) record, good for first in the conference with 17.6 points, 6.9 boards, and 3.9 assists per night. Avila slows the game down to his pace and operates as a sort of point-forward for third-year head coach Josh Schertz.
His play has shades of Cameron Krutwig from Loyola Chicago a few years ago, another matchup nightmare big who helped lead his team to a massive upset of No. 1 seed Illinois to earn a spot in the Sweet 16.
X, of course, took over and coined some fun nicknames for Avila such as "Cream Abdul-Jabbar" and "Larry Blurred" given his pale complexion and affinity for rocking the rec-specs. This also made for a pretty hilarious exchange between him, Schertz, and a student reporter after ISU locked up the MVC regular season crown.
ISU Student Media asked Robbie what it was like to see his face on social media/national outlets. After he gave his response, I joked if Schertz has reached out to him to be his marketing rep. The two had some fun with the question @Robbie_Avila30 @CoachSchertzISU #Sports10 pic.twitter.com/LRJcTDMSKZ
— Marty Ledbetter (@MartySports10) March 4, 2024
Avila isn't the only great player on this roster, though. ISU also boasts four other guys averaging at least 10 points per game, including two sharpshooting guards -- Isaiah Swope & Ryan Conwell -- who both put up more than 16 per night and have hit a combined 181 threes.
The Sycamores are also top 50 in KenPom (No. 45 overall), with a No. 25 adjusted offensive efficiency. Besides Drake, who is the biggest threat from depriving us of an NCAA Tournament with Avila, the next closest MVC member in AdjO is Bradley all the way down at No. 76.
Indiana State is also No. 1 nationwide in effective field-goal percentage (59.8%) -- which includes a No. 2 ranking in two-point percentage (62.1%) and No. 12 from three (38.4%). A high-volume, efficient shooting team with three elite playmakers? This team is made for March. I will be closely following the MVC tournament in the hopes that the Sycamores emerge victorious. That tips off on Thursday.
Robbie Avila went off for a huge game against Evansville. He finished with
35 Points
8 Rebounds
5 Assists
1 Steal
58% FGIndiana State also got the win pic.twitter.com/CmIZ9bY2Ye
— KJ (@Kjpistons) February 29, 2024
Kansas Jayhawks: No. 7 to No. 14
Putting Kansas here feels a bit like a cop-out because of course they are better than the No. 14 team in the country. When you actually sit down with their resume and metrics, you really start to question that.
The Jayhawks had a great non-con with wins over No. 4 UConn at home (though the Huskies were without Stephon Castle), No. 7 Tennessee, and No. 17 Kentucky, but conference play has hit them like a ton of bricks. Currently tied for fourth in the Big 12, Kansas has dropped two straight, including one at home to unranked BYU, which broke a 65-game winning streak at Allen Fieldhouse against unranked opponents. You have to go back to 2005 for a loss like this. Nineteen years. Star guard Kevin McCullar Jr. was out, but truly great teams still win even when hampered.
With that said, this is just setting up for Kansas to slip to the four-seed line, and that is an absolute nightmare for whoever is in that region. This team needs McCullar to be fully healthy for them to be as dangerous as they can be -- he scored 20 in his first game back -- but Kansas can easily make another Final Four fun with this roster.
Again, if they are healthy. Their offensive efficiency has really fallen over the past few weeks (current No. 42), but if Johnny Furphy and Nick Timberlake can provide consistent production from long-range, this is still a scary team that can compete with anyone.
I appreciate Johnny Furphy's consistently high motor crashing the boards. Understanding how to leverage his size and athleticism at 6-8, rather than being passive which is a much easier option, is one of his best skills.
He's in the lottery on my big board. 🇦🇺 pic.twitter.com/2FYaXG5RZi
— Wilko (@wilkomcv) February 27, 2024
