Stop That Hype Train! Kenyan Drake

Arizona Cardinals running back Kenyan Drake is an overhyped sleeper and potential ADP bust for 2020 fantasy football leagues. Bruce Matson evaluates Drake's profile and explains why other RB options might be better values.

The Miami Dolphins traded Kenyan Drake to the Arizona Cardinals during the midway point of the 2019 season. From there, he took the bull by the horns, rushing for 643 yards and eight touchdowns while also catching 28 passes for 171 yards. He finished in the top-25 in PPR scoring at his position in six of the eight games that he played for the Cardinals. On top of that, he managed to score in the top-five three times last year.

The Cardinals have an up and coming offense. Head coach Kliff Kingsbury has implanted an innovative offense by adapting his version of the air raid to the team’s offensive game plan. The franchise was able to add DeAndre Hopkins who is one of the best wide receivers in the league. Kyler Murray is entering his second season as the team’s franchise quarterback and is expecting to take a leap forward in his development this year.

Drake is a receiving back who is very electric in space. He has an 85th percentile size-adjusted speed score. The marriage between him and the Cardinals’ offense is a match made in heaven. As long as he’s on the field, he has the potential to churn out big numbers in the box score. All signs point to Drake being an elite fantasy option in 2020 and his rising draft position reflects that optimism. He should easily finish as an RB1 in fantasy but this may not be a picture-perfect situation. Just because he blew up during the last few weeks of last season, doesn’t mean he will be able to replicate those results during a full 16-game season.

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Red Flags

One of the major issues that stand out is the lack of production throughout his career which stems back all the way to his days at Alabama. During his collegiate career, he could only muster 1,495 yards and 18 touchdowns on the ground with just two 100-yard performances during his four-year tenure with the Crimson Tide.

During his time at Miami, Drake was unable to breakout. He rushed for just 1,532 yards and nine touchdowns during his three and a half years with the Dolphins. As we all know, the team is one of the worst franchises in the league and the team’s inability to put together a roster with functional talent is one of the reasons why Drake was unable to excel with his previous team.

Injuries have plagued him throughout his career. He started the 2019 season with a foot injury. Drake also endured shoulder and abdomen injuries during the previous season. He was primarily healthy in 2017, and even with Jay Ajayi and Damien Williams lobbying for touches, Drake still finished as the team’s leading rusher with 644 yards. Ajayi prevented him from breaking out during his rookie season in 2016 by boasting the fourth-most rushing yards in the league.

We haven’t seen him hold it down as the alpha for any of his teams. Can he play a full 16-game season without seeing any setbacks? Will he be able to maintain his efficiency and keep the rest of the running backs on the team at bay?

These are questions we don’t have the answer for and unfortunately, we have to pay a 16.3 ADP, a late second-round price tag to find out if the sauce is worth the squeeze. This is a very high price to pay for a player that has a huge question mark which could derail his fantasy outlook.

If Drake falls off mid-way through the year, then his fantasy owners are going to suffer. It’s costly to lose one of your top options early in the season. Not only to injury but not performing to expectations could be a death knell to his fantasy prowess. We can argue against it until we are blue in the face, but we only have a nine-week period where he was a supreme fantasy producer. The sample size of him not being productive is much larger compared to him being a fantasy-relevant asset.

Cost Analysis

ADP data courtesy of RotoBaller

The opportunity cost of being able to draft a known commodity that can be just as productive in your lineup is always the better option. George Kittle and Travis Kelce are the top tight ends in the league and deliver consistent production while playing the most malleable position in football. Kenny Golladay led all wide receivers with 36 targets of 20 yards or more and 11 touchdowns. Mike Evans is one of the best wide receivers in the league and will get the opportunity to play with Tom Brady.

Let’s compare him to the running backs who are being drafted behind him. Josh Jacobs has first-round draft capital and the Raiders want to get him more involved in the offensive game plan. Even though Nick Chubb shares the backfield with Kareem Hunt, he has been a productive fantasy asset throughout his fantasy career and was a top-shelf devy asset during his days in Georgia. Aaron Jones is a very talented running back who is tethered to Aaron Rodgers and is on an offense that will continuously move the ball downfield.

Drafting quarterback early might not always be the best strategy, but Lamar Jackson is one of the most polarizing players in fantasy. His rushing production provides some extra leverage for his fantasy owners.

There’s no reason to take on the added risk when there are other options available that are projected to score just as much and have been much more stable throughout their careers. Taking risks is cool, but being risk-averse during the early rounds is the best practice.

Drake is a very polarizing player. He has RB1 potential, but the drop off to his floor is rather steep. Just take into account there’s a lot of risk involved in when it comes to drafting him in fantasy this year.

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