X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Finding Over/Undervalued Third Basemen Using Expected Draft Values

Rafael Devers - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB DFS Picks, Betting Picks

Nick Mariano uses RotoBaller's Expected Draft Values, which analyzes data from the last 5 fantasy baseball seasons, to identify overvalued and undervalued third basemen (3B) for fantasy baseball drafts in 2022.

We push on with our Expected Draft Values series, which utilizes historical data and projections to help us identify both over and undervalued players of all types. Power, speed, power+speed, batting average+power, and so on, with pitchers as well.

Today, we'll look at a trio of third basemen and compare their projected statline via my Cutter Projections against their ADP's expected return. Stay tuned over the next couple of weeks as we bring you a deeper look at undervalued and overvalued players from each position using Expected Draft Values.

Generally, what we'll do in this series is identify players who will return positive or negative value, based on their NFBC ADP in Draft Champions Contests spanning February into March (94 drafts), their Expected Draft Value (i.e. the average stat line typically produced at that ADP), and the player's projection.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

How Expected Draft Values Help You Win Your League

It may be clear by this point already, but if you know the expected break-even stat-line of every draft slot, you can identify which of your draft picks are projected to return positive or negative value. Below, we look at four players at the hot corner that are either over or undervalued based on their recent NFBC Online ADP, our RotoBaller projections, and Expected Draft Values.

Without further ado, here are some players that stand out at their current cost in 2022 drafts.

 

Rafael Devers - 3B, BOS

NFBC DC ADP: 18
Expected Return for a Power Hitter Drafted 18th: .273-41-98-109-4
2022 RotoBaller Projection: .280-40-100-109-6

Analysis: Now 25 years old, Devers is hitting his stride after a beautiful 2021 that saw him blast 38 home runs next to 214 R+RBI and a .279 average. While he’s still improving on the basepaths (5-of-10 in ‘21), at least he got the green light again after zero steal attempts in the shortened 2020 season. He’s also built up a durable body of work, playing in 156 games in both 2019 and ‘21 alongside 57 of the 60 contests in ‘20.

Mind you, it is difficult for a projection to beat the expectation at all this high up in drafts. Top-end results routinely exceed the higher end of projections because what you see from the algorithms rarely cover outcomes from the 90th percentiles. So for our projection to have 46 HR+SB to the expected 45, 209 R+RBI to 207, and seven points of batting average on top is meaningful. Especially at the hot corner, where elite talent quickly gives way to a minefield.

It’s easy to forget Devers is only 25 as he enters his sixth MLB campaign, but consider his exit velocity, barrel, and HR/FB rates have climbed throughout his career. After an average launch angle between 10.5-11.2 degrees in 2018-20, that rose to 13.1 degrees in ‘21 as his barrel rate climbed from 12.1% to 15%. This isn't to say there is an automatic growth pattern to lean on, but there's no reason to believe we've seen Devers' peak either. Even if he doesn't climb much higher, you're still coming out slightly ahead per projections against EDV. That's a great foundation to lay in the early rounds at a position that turns bleak rather quickly.

I'll leave you with this fun tweet from Mike Kurland that highlights Devers' strong coverage of the zone with excellent slugging against the shadow zone (the zone's edge on both sides):

Verdict: Target, Devers is undervalued at his current draft slot

 

Kris Bryant - 3B/OF, COL**

NFBC DC ADP: 63 -- I used a recent, post-Rockies slice of ADP. And his Main Event ADP from this past weekend was 59th.
Expected Return for a Power Hitter Drafted 63rd: .260-34-81-94-3
2022 RotoBaller Projection: .279-29-90-83-7

Analysis: Bryant was a 30-year-old free agent who rebounded with a .265 average and a .835 OPS in 586 PAs for the Cubs and Giants in 2021, thwacking 25 home runs with 10 steals. He hadn’t hit double-digit swipes since his rookie season in 2015, so we loved to see that. The Giants loved running him as he went a perfect 6-for-6 in just 51 games, but spacious San Fran also saw Bryant hit just seven HRs with a .788 OPS.

I'd originally written this before he signed with the Rockies, so his projections have gone up. Have they outpaced the price tag boost as well? Earlier, he was being overvalued around pick 100 given his median projections. And now, he's roughly at breakeven thanks in large part to his batting average jumping thanks to Coors. It helps mitigate needing 34 HRs out of this power slot, but perhaps COL allows him to run more as SF did. We also can't automatically assume he handles the Coors hangover well. This is increased volatility to his profile.

Unfortunately, the higher draft slot means his checkered medical record and playing in under 150 games the past four seasons (including just 34 of 60 in 2020) weighs more heavily. Bryant played through a wrist injury that wound up being an impact fracture in 2020. We saw his 2019 ruined by a knee injury where he got caught on a turf mat during batting practice. Bryant’s 2018 was going well until he jammed his left shoulder on a headfirst slide in mid-May. He’s not injury-prone but a long list of injuries will hinder progress.

The good news is 2021 left him largely unscathed outside of some hamstring woes, and his 10.3% barrel rate was his best mark since 2016. Bryant is still a guy whose fly-ball rate steadies around 30% (per Savant) and it seems people are attached to his name rather than the performance of late.

Verdict: Pass, Bryant is slightly overvalued at his current draft slot

 

Eugenio Suarez - 3B, SEA

NFBC DC ADP: 205
Expected Return for a Power Hitter Drafted 205th: .248-29-69-73-2
2022 RotoBaller Projection: .229-31-80-88-1

Analysis: This writer had high hopes for Suárez after a short 2020 that was ostensibly ruined by shoulder surgery had driven down his ADP. The slugger had offseason shoulder surgery in January 2020 and still gave us a .268 ISO and 15 home runs in 57 games, but a .202 average and .214 BABIP killed many dreams. He’d never posted a BABIP below .304 before that, so we expected some positive regression here.

That wouldn’t happen, as 2021 yielded a slump-infested .198 average with a lowly .224 BABIP. He still cracked 31 home runs, but is he basically Adam Dunn now? Well, hold on now. Just as the book closed on 2021, we saw a glimmer of hope. Suárez began September with a pinch-hit double to kick off a 27-for-73 (.370) end to the season with 16 extra-base hits (eight doubles, eight HRs).

A hot end to someone with his track record is enough for me to buy in. It was enough for Seattle to buy in as well, even if it feels more like a salary buyout. It’s worth noting that 2021 saw his first-pitch swing rate climb to a career-high 33.1%, a likely sign of pressing through the prolonged slump. I’d also wager playing horrid defense at shortstop didn’t help him focus on plate adjustments. Manager David Bell gave both Joey Votto and Suárez mini-benchings when they needed a reset and we saw Votto respond well, but maybe Suárez needed more time.  Votto is not the norm!

I understand the cases for both optimism and pessimism for a 30-year-old slugger coming off of two harsh seasons who is leaving GABP. You'll need to calculate whether you can absorb the likely hit to batting average as a tradeoff for late R+RBI opportunities that come with his sort of power. Several spring training lineups with regulars have seen him bat fifth, which I will happily take. And if he needs some DH time to breathe then that should be an option. Please, no more shortstop shenanigans.

Verdict: Target, Suarez is undervalued at his current draft slot



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Aaron Nola

Pitches Seven Strong Innings
Tylor Megill

Strikes Out Nine In No-Decision
Hunter Brown

Strikes Out Nine In Win
Agustín Ramírez

Agustin Ramirez Homers Twice
Andy Pages

Homers In Four-Hit Game
Ketel Marte

Expected To Return Next Weekend
Joe Ryan

Posts Stellar Outing
Noelvi Marte

Has Big Game On Sunday
Jaylen Brown

Available For Game 4
Nick Lodolo

Throws Seven Scoreless Innings
Brandon Marsh

Removed Early During Rehab Game
Ranger Suárez

Ranger Suarez Looks Sharp In Rehab Start
Josh Jung

Makes Early Exit On Sunday
Tyler Glasnow

Removed Early On Sunday
Darius Garland

Questionable For Game 4
Jaden Ivey

Making Progress
Frederik Andersen

Exits Game 4 With Injury
Jake Neighbours

Shines On Sunday With Three Points
Jordan Binnington

Makes 30 Saves In Game 4 Victory
Patrik Laine

Not Expected To Play In Game 4
Sam Montembeault

Labeled Day-To-Day
Jarren Duran

Collects Four Hits On Sunday
Tarik Skubal

Racks Up 11 Strikeouts
Aliaksei Protas

Considered A Game-Time Decision Sunday
Logan Thompson

A Game-Time Call Sunday
Clayton Kershaw

To Make Two Rehab Starts This Week
Jackson Merrill

Takes Batting Practice On Sunday
Sean Murphy

Taking A Seat On Sunday
Will Smith

Resting On Sunday
Max Brosmer

Minnesota Adds Insurance With Max Brosmer

Donovan Edwards Inks Deal With Jets
Tyler Fitzgerald

To Miss Second Straight Game
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

No Longer Facing One-Game Suspension

Nick Nash Signs With The Falcons
Cam Ward

Xavier Restrepo Reunites With Cam Ward In Tennessee
Chase Elliott

Is One OF The Top Overall DFS Picks Of The Week
Joey Logano

Could Joey Logano Finish A Race With A Top Finish At Talladega?
NASCAR

DFS Players Should Like Bubba Wallace For Talladega This Week
Christopher Bell

Should DFS Players Roster Christopher Bell At Talladega?
Austin Cindric

Is Austin Cindric Worth Rostering For Talladega DFS Lineups?
Shane Van Gisbergen

Is A Solid, Safe, DFS Choice For Talladega Lineups
Austin Dillon

Is Austin Dillon A Viable DFS Play At Talladega This Week?
Josh Berry

Qualifies Too High At Talladega To Be Worth Rostering In DFS
Michael McDowell

Should DFS Players Take A Shot On Michael McDowell At Talladega?
Noah Gragson

Could Be A Sneaky DFS Play For Talladega
William Nylander

Posts Two Assists In Losing Effort
Denny Hamlin

Probably Qualified Too Well for DFS Consideration
Kyle Larson

Increasingly Undervalued Due to His Crashing, but Still a Great DFS Option
Kyle Busch

Nearly Always Leads at Talladega, but Rarely Leads Much
Tyler Reddick

Drafting Track Record Worse Than It Looks
Daniel Suarez

Likely Motivated at Talladega Since Trackhouse Cars Likely Too Slow for Him to Win On Regular Tracks
Ryan Preece

Qualifies Fourth Due to Ford Dominance, but Don't Expect Him to Finish There
Justin Haley

Qualifies 37th in First Race After Rodney Childers's Departure
Chase Briscoe

Post-Daytona 500 Penalty Results in Much Worse Talladega Qualifying for Chase Briscoe
Alex Bowman

Starting Too Well for Place Differential Points, but Not Well Enough for Leader Points
Chris Buescher

Qualifies Sixth Thanks to Ford Dominance, but Probably Won't Lead Enough to Be Valuable in DFS
Ty Gibbs

Despite Current Momentum, Ty Gibbs Qualified Too Well for DFS Consideration
Jake Sanderson

Keeps Senators Alive With Overtime Winner
Mackenzie Blackwood

Records First Postseason Shutout
Gabriel Landeskog

Scores First Goal In Nearly Three Years
Ivan Barbashev

Gives Vegas Vital Win
Nikita Kucherov

Records Three Assists In Game 3 Win
Troy Stecher

Cleared For Sunday
Jimmy Butler III

Ruled Out On Saturday
Isaiah Stewart

Questionable For Sunday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 4
Jrue Holiday

Won't Play On Sunday
Quinn Ewers

Dolphins Select Quinn Ewers In Seventh Round
Brenden Dillon

Out On Sunday
Mitchell Robinson

Questionable For Game 4 Versus Detroit
Luke Hughes

To Remain Out On Sunday
Michael Porter Jr.

Available On Saturday Night
Aliaksei Protas

Practices Fully On Saturday
Russell Westbrook

Won't Suit Up For Game 4
Gabriel Vilardi

A Game-Time Decision For Sunday
Oskar Bäck

Oskar Back A Game-Time Call On Saturday
Ross Colton

Unavailable Saturday
Miro Heiskanen

Remains Out Saturday
Riley Leonard

Drafted By Colts Saturday
Will Howard

Steelers Select Will Howard In Sixth Round Of NFL Draft
Kyle McCord

Eagles Add Kyle McCord To Quarterback Room
Ollie Gordon II

Miami Adds Ollie Gordon II To Backfield
Oronde Gadsden II

Chargers Add KeAndre Lambert-Smith, Oronde Gadsden II To Offense
DJ Giddens

Colts Add DJ Giddens To Backfield
Jaydon Blue

Dallas Cowboys Draft Jaydon Blue In Fifth Round
Jordan Watkins

49ers Add Jordan Watkins To Offense
Shedeur Sanders

Browns Trade Up To Select Shedeur Sanders In The Fifth Round
Sam Howell

Seahawks Trade Sam Howell To Vikings
Elic Ayomanor

Titans Continue To Address Offense, Select Elic Ayomanor
Jalen Royals

Chiefs Bolster Receiver Room With Jalen Royals
Jaylin Lane

Commanders Add Jaylin Lane To Wide Receiver Room
Dylan Sampson

Browns Select Dylan Sampson With 126th Pick
Gunnar Helm

Titans Use Fourth-Round Pick On Gunnar Helm
Jarquez Hunter

Rams Select Jarquez Hunter In Fourth Round
Darius Garland

Won't Suit Up For Game 3
Darius Garland

Unavailable For Pregame Warmup
Jrue Holiday

Classified As "Day-To-Day"
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF