Outfield Waiver Wire Pickups For Week 5

Through four weeks of the 2020 MLB season, almost all teams have played more than one-quarter of their season. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have played only six games. Although a significant number of the remaining Cardinals games will last only seven innings, Cardinals hitters are set for an exceptionally high workload over the rest of the season.

That particular oddity of the 2020 season may not be especially relevant for outfield waiver pickups this week (it does make Tyler O'Neill and Brad Miller more valuable), but it does highlight some of the strange ways player values will fluctuate over the season. Fantasy players should keep those fluctuations in mind when approaching waivers each week.

Below are some outfielders worth picking up on waivers this week. Roster rates for waiver wire pickups are based on Yahoo leagues with standard 5x5 scoring, and the cutoff is 50% rostered.

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Shallow-League Pickups

Willie Calhoun, Texas Rangers

29% rostered

Injuries and a slow start prevented Calhoun from being a valuable fantasy option early this season, but that doesn’t mean that he should be dropped in two-thirds of the leagues that drafted him this season. Also working in Calhoun’s favor is that he’s been hot of late with a .368/.409/.526 slash line over his last six games.

As much as that graph demonstrates Calhoun’s recent hot streak, it also illustrates the absurdity of dropping Calhoun after eight bad games. The period between draft day and today featured spots when Calhoun’s fantasy value was lower than it was on draft day (particularly when he was injured and his readiness for Opening Day was unclear).

But I would argue that there is at most a minor difference between what fantasy players expected from Calhoun on draft day and what they should expect from him over the rest of the season. Calhoun should probably be rostered in more than 70% of leagues right now as a result, and fantasy players should take advantage of the impatience that has resulted in Calhoun’s 29% rostered rate.

Jesse Winker, Cincinnati Reds

33% rostered

Winker has been off to a red-hot start to the season with a 1.059 OPS over his first 19 games, and it’s easy to buy into the 26-year-old’s strong early-season performance. Winker appears to have reworked his approach to maximize his power so far this season, cutting down his o-swing rate to a career-low 18% (without a meaningful decrease in his z-swing rate) while posting career-bests in his hard-hit (50%), sweet-spot (44.7%), and barrel (15.8%) rates. 

With plate discipline related metrics and ISO tending to stabilize quickly, Winker’s breakout should stick over the rest of the season. To put Winker’s current performance into perspective, take a look at the players who posted an ISO above .240 (.245 for Winker so far this year) with better-than-average strikeout (21.7% for Winker) and walk (11.7% for Winker) rates last season:

Also encouraging is that Winker’s .600 xwOBA on contact and 0.005 wOBA - xwOBA suggest that his results have largely been well-deserved so far this season. That’s not to say that Winker won’t cool off over the rest of the season -- his .424 BABIP is unsustainable, and no qualified posted an xwOBAcon above .545 (Mike Trout) last season -- but he should post an OPS above .830 with a chance to top .900 for the rest of the season.

Nick Senzel, Cincinnati Reds

46% rostered

The logic behind Senzel (94% draft rate) is similar to that of Willie Calhoun, except Senzel hasn’t had a particularly bad this season with a .816 OPS over his first 14 games. Senzel boasts an elite 55.4% z-swing - o-swing rate so far this season, building off of last season’s strong 42.4% mark. Contact quality hasn’t been an issue for Senzel either, as he’s posted a 44.4% hard-hit rate and a .422 xwOBAcon so far this year.

In addition to a groin injury that kept Senzel sidelined for three games, the primary depressor of Senzel’s fantasy value this season appears to be bad luck. Senzel’s .288 xBA is 44 points higher than his current .244 mark, and his .265 BABIP should rise towards .300 over the rest of the season. As a result, fantasy players should expect Senzel to post an OPS above .800 with the potential to top .850 for the season. Combined with his impressive speed and potential for more than five stolen bases in 60 games, that level of production makes Senzel worth rostering in most leagues.

Deeper-League Pickups

Kole Calhoun, Arizona Diamondbacks

13% rostered

Calhoun’s 33 home runs from last season may not have been the most impressive feat after a whopping 58 players clubbed more than 30 homers, but the 32-year-old should be rostered in more than 13% of leagues. Of the 58 players to hit 30 or more home runs last season, only Daniel Vogelbach (2% rostered) and Randal Grichuk (12% rostered) are rostered in fewer than 13% of leagues, and Calhoun is likely to be significantly more valuable than both of those players this season.

Calhoun already has five home runs so far this season, and he’s posted a .888 OPS over his first 18 games. Encouragingly, Calhoun’s hard-hit (41.2%) and barrel (11.8%) rates are in line with last season’s numbers, and given that his performance from last season did not seem to be built on unsustainable good luck, Calhoun should at least match last season’s .792 OPS this year. Add in that Calhoun has cut his strikeout rate down to 20% this season with a slightly better plate approach and is hitting more fly-balls, and Calhoun should post an OPS above .800 for the season. That makes Calhoun an attractive option for fantasy players looking for cheap power and worth picking up in deeper leagues. 

Robbie Grossman, Oakland Athletics

13% rostered

Grossman has always been an elite contact hitter with a career 6.8% swinging-strike rate, and his added power this season makes him worth picking up in deeper leagues. Grossman’s 35% and 10% hard-hit and barrel rates, respectively, shatter his previous career highs and have helped fuel a .445 xwOBAcon that sits 83 points above his career average. Encouragingly, Grossman’s power surge has come without a sacrifice in his contact skills, as the 30-year-old boasts a 5.8% swinging-strike rate so far this season. 

All of that has led to a ridiculous 200 OPS+ from Grossman over his first 16 games, the highest mark in the American League. Grossman’s power bump probably won’t be so significant over the rest of the season, but Grossman should see his much of his elevated power stick through the year. As a result, Grossman is likely to post an OPS above .800 with a strikeout rate below 20% and a walk rate above 12% over the rest of the season, making him worth rostering in deeper leagues.

Nick Solak, Texas Rangers

27% rostered

Solak came into the season with playing time and positional eligibility questions, but those concerns have been alleviated with Solak starting in each of the Rangers’ last 13 games and picking up eligibility at three positions. Solak has been hitting well, too, with a .311 batting average and .825 OPS over his first 17 games. 

With a career 8.2% swinging-strike rate and .391 xwOBAcon, Solak combines excellent contact skills with above-average contact quality, making an OPS above .800 likely for the season. Home runs have been tough to come by so far this season for Solak, but his 3.6% HR:FB should more than double over the rest of the season, and he should hit more than five home runs this year. Combined with his positional versatility, Solak’s solid expected production makes him worth rostered in more than 27% of leagues.

Quick Hits

Clint Frazier (OF - NYY) - 15% rostered
Aaron Hicks (OF - NYY) - 11% rostered
Mike Tauchman (OF - NYY) - 9% rostered

The trio of Yankee outfielders are all good pickups with Aaron Judge (calf) and Giancarlo Stanton (hamstring) sidelined. Given the uncertainty surrounding Tauchman’s and Frazier’s long-term playing time, I’d rank them in the following order for the rest of the season: (1) Hicks, (2) Tauchman, (3) Frazier. That being said, with playing time easier to come by for the next week or so at least Tachman is probably the best option of the bunch this week, with none of the three outranking any of the others by a wide margin.

Jo Adell (OF - LAA) - 36% rostered

Fantasy players were quick to lose confidence in Adell, with the 21-year-old’s rostered rate dropping from 53% last week to 36% this week. Granted, Adell has had an awful start to his MLB career with a .367 OPS and 13 strikeouts to one walk over his first seven games, but Adell has tremendous upside and could reward more patient fantasy players.

Victor Reyes (OF - DET) - 4% rostered

Reyes made his case for consistent playing time even with Cameron Maybin returning from the IL, slashing .333/.400/.481 with a pair of stolen bases over seven games. Playing time may still be uncertain for Reyes, but he’s worth a look in deeper leagues after being primed for a breakout season this year and playing well in Maybin’s absence.

Shin-Soo Choo (OF - TEX) - 43% rostered

Choo is going to keep showing up here while he remains rostered in fewer than 50% of leagues. Choo has gradually been heating up, and his .265 batting average /15 stolen base/24 home run 2019 season should be mostly replicable this year (on a per-game basis).

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