Outfield Waiver Wire Pickups For Week 10

The abbreviated  2020 season has gone by quickly, and this week represents the last week of regular season baseball this year. Like last week's article, my recommendations will be largely short-term focused as a result.

Many of these players have been recommended before, and some (like Clint Frazier) were recommended as recently as last week. With fantasy seasons on the line this week, the recency of past recommendations was not taken into consideration for this week's recommendations, although the reasons for rostering players may have become stronger week-to-week based on schedules.

With that in mind, below are some outfielders worth picking up on waivers this week. Roster rates for waiver wire pickups are based on Yahoo leagues with standard 5x5 scoring, and the cutoff is 50% rostered.

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Shallow-League Pickups

Clint Frazier, New York Yankees

39% rostered

The Yankees have confirmed that Frazier will receive everyday playing time even as the team approaches full health with Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton returning from the injured list, making him a must-roster outfielder in most leagues. Frazier has been excellent since claiming regular playing time in mid-August, posting a 1.017 through 33 games. 

Beyond his strong performance at the plate, Frazier gets a relatively soft schedule this week that starts with a four-game series in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league against the Blue Jays in Buffalo. The three games against the Marlins later in the week are slightly less favorable given that the Yankees will likely face talented rookie Sixto Sanchez for one of those games, but the series comes at Yankee Stadium rather than the hitter-suppressing Marlins Park. Add in that the Yankee lineup is finally healthy and as hot as anyone, and Frazier is a very appealing option on waivers this week.

Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants

35% rostered

Brandon Belt and his (finally) healthy knees have been mashing since he joined the team on July 30, and the 32-year-old has posted a .981 through 42 games so far this season. Belt recently said that his knees are fully healthy for the first time since 2017, and that’s reflected in his numbers with his hard-hit rate back up over 40% and his xwOBAcon back up over .430. In that same vein, the 100 PA rolling average of Belt’s xwOBA is now at its highest mark since 2016 at .471.

Now that he’s fully healthy, it’s reasonable to expect Belt to post an OPS near the .845 mark that he posted between 2015 and 2017 over a full season. But with only eight Giants games left this season, matchups (and luck) will play a significant role in Belt’s performance. To that end, Belt gets a four-game slate against the league’s fourth-worst pitching staff (by ERA) in the Rockies to start off his week, and although he faces a considerably tougher opponent in the Padres later this week, Belt is still well worth rostering in most leagues this week.

Nick Senzel, Cincinnati Reds

33% rostered

Senzel missed a month with what was likely a positive coronavirus test, and the Reds have eased him back into the lineup since his return on September 14. Senzel now played in 2 of the last 3 games for the Reds and is worth rostering in most leagues as a result. Senzel picked up 12 home runs and 14 stolen bases over 104 games as a rookie last season, and his production on the basepaths makes him especially valuable.

Senzel’s schedule isn’t anything special this week, but with three games at home and three against a Twins team that has been worse than average at defending against stolen bases, it’s unlikely to damage his fantasy value too much. As a result, fantasy managers in need of stolen bases should consider targeting Senzel this week.

Deeper-League Pickups

Aaron Hicks, New York Yankees

9% rostered

Hicks has underwhelmed slightly this season with a .221/.388/.400 slash line through 46 games, but that’s enough to make him worth rostering in deeper leagues given that he’s been heating up lately and has a favorable schedule this week. The Yankees get four games against the Blue Jays in Buffalo to start the week, where Hicks should enjoy a series in the second-most homer-friendly MLB park.

Hicks will then get a three-game set against the Marlins at home, where he’s posted a .449 slugging percentage and a .843 OPS so far this season. Hicks has been hot lately with a .919 OPS through his last 12 games, and he’s got a good chance to keep that hot streak going through the rest of the season based on his schedule. All of that makes Hicks an attractive option on waivers this week and worth rostering in well over nine percent of leagues.

Kole Calhoun, Arizona Diamondbacks

28% rostered

Calhoun hasn’t missed a beat since clubbing a career-high 33 home runs last season, posting a .875 OPS with 14 home runs through 47 games so far this season. Encouragingly, Calhoun’s .399 xwOBA and .565 xSLG suggest that his performance has largely been well-deserved this season. In addition to his impressive production, Calhoun’s’ reasonably soft schedule this week makes him an even more desirable target on waivers. 

Calhoun starts the week with a pair of games against a struggling Rangers pitching staff before four games against a Rockies pitching staff that owns the league’s third-worst ERA. It’s worth noting that the Colorado pitchers have fared far better on the road this season (as expected) and all four of Calhoun’s games against the Rockies this week come in Arizona, but he should still manage to hit well and is worth rostering in deeper leagues as a result.

Cedric Mullins, Baltimore Orioles

2% rostered

The Orioles may well have the softest (hitting) schedule in baseball over the last week of the season, facing the Red Sox (in Boston) three times and the Blue Jays (in Buffalo) three times. Those two teams have combined for a 5.51 ERA at their home ballparks this season, giving Mullins and the other Baltimore hitters a solid chance to contribute for fantasy managers. 

Mullins should further benefit from the fact that both the Blue Jays and Red Sox have been well below-average at limiting stolen bases this season, ranking 21st and 22nd in the league at limiting opposing stolen bases, respectively. Stolen-base hungry fantasy managers in deeper leagues should find Mullins to be an ideal option on waivers this week as a result.

Quick Hits

Brad Miller (OF - STL) - 41% rostered

Miller has continued to play well after a hot start to the season with a .862 OPS through 39 games, and the Cardinals get an eight-game slate this week that should allow Miller to outproduce similarly productive hitters with fewer games this week.

Mickey Moniak (OF - PHI) - 1% rostered

Moniak made his MLB debut on September 16, and the former top-100 prospect is still worth staying on the radar of fantasy managers even if his minor league performance has been less than stellar so far.

Ryan Braun (OF - MIL) - 29% rostered

Braun’s power appears to be back to normal after injuries affected his earlier-season performance, but a nagging back injury has kept him in and out of the lineup over the past couple of days, making him a less than ideal but potentially decent option for fantasy managers this week.

DJ Stewart (OF - BAL) - 28% rostered

Stewart should enjoy the same desirable schedule that Cedric Mullins gets this week, and Stewart has claimed everyday playing time with a .932 OPS through 24 games this season. That’s enough to have him on the radar of fantasy managers this week, and he’s worth a look on waivers. 

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