Outfield Waiver Wire Pickups For Week 2

Baseball is back, and with it came room for fantasy managers to gain edges in their leagues through the waiver wire. Playing the waiver wire well can take a poorly drafted team into championship contention or help shore up an already strong team, and waivers generally represent one of the best ways for fantasy managers to get ahead.

Some quick notes before diving in this week: I’ve made some changes to the article’s format this year to provide more thorough coverage of the state of outfield waivers. Most significantly, I’ve added a weekly summary section at the start of the article. The weekly summary section includes the following information: the hottest outfielders rostered in fewer than 50% of leagues of the past week by xwOBA, the top rest of season wOBA projections from FGDC for outfielders rostered in fewer than 50% of leagues, teams with favorable hitter schedules in the upcoming week, and any miscellaneous roster or lineup notes (like a player getting called up or gaining outfield eligibility). 

With that in mind, below are six outfielders worth considering on waivers this week. As always, roster rates for waiver wire pickups are based on Yahoo leagues with standard 5x5 scoring, and an outfielder must be rostered in fewer than 50% of leagues to be considered for this article. 

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Weekly Summary

Who’s Hot?

With only two games of data making up this week’s leaderboard, this leaderboard doesn’t have a ton of use. Still, I’ve included it for reference.

Rest of Season Projections

This leaderboard is especially valuable early in the season when fantasy managers may overreact to slow starts.

Schedule Notes

No teams have particularly hitter-friendly schedules this week, but there are a few worth calling out:

• Toronto plays every day this week against a pair of hittable pitching staffs in the Rangers and Angels. Randal Grichuk could be worth a short-term add for fantasy managers looking for counting stats off of waivers this week as a result.
• The Diamondbacks get a three-game set in Coors Field this week (as do the Rockies), so Josh Rojas, David Peralta, and Garrett Hampson should see their value boosted slightly.
• The Orioles have a series at the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium before returning home to face the weak Red Sox rotation. Lefty Cedric Mullins should benefit from Yankee Stadium’s short porch.

Lineup Notes

Andrew Vaughn doesn’t have outfield eligibility yet, but that should come soon and fantasy managers should have the 23-year-old on their radars going forward. Vaughn is currently rostered in 54% of leagues.

Shallow League Pickups

Brandon Nimmo, New York Mets

27% rostered

Injury-prone hitters who are highly productive when healthy are ideal waiver targets; they’re effectively free in terms of draft capital, and their low cost mitigates their injury risk. Essentially, fantasy managers get all of the valuable production with only a very small fraction of the risk. Nimmo fits that profile nicely, having played in only 333 games over the past four seasons while missing time with neck and hamstring injuries (among others) but owning a .850 OPS with solid home run and stolen base production during that time.

It’s no surprise that Fangraphs projects Nimmo for the second-best wOBA for the rest of this season among outfielders currently rostered in fewer than 50% of leagues, and his projected .348 wOBA puts him on par with Paul Goldschmidt and Matt Chapman. It’s admittedly not a perfect comparison because wOBA isn’t a perfect measure of fantasy value, but imagine if Paul Goldschmidt was available on waivers in your league -- you’d be all over him. Nimmo is a no-brainer add while he’s healthy, and fantasy managers should target him this week.

Aaron Hicks, New York Yankees

46% rostered

Hicks showed up in this column more than anyone last season, but he underwhelmed with a decent but unspectacular .225 batting average and .793 OPS. Health was likely a significant factor in Hicks’ relatively poor 2020 performance, though. Hicks was still dealing with the after-effects of Tommy John surgery last season, noting this offseason that he was uncomfortable taking big swings for fear of re-injuring his elbow.

Even with that discomfort lurking in the background, Hicks’ under the hood performance was remarkably strong last season. Hicks’ .372 xwOBA was his best mark since Statcast began tracking the metric in 2015, and even his power numbers (including his dynamic hard-hit rate and average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives) were generally in line with or better than his numbers from recent seasons. 

Hicks should be counted on to bounce back in 2021 as a result, and that means he’s likely to post an OPS between .800 and .850 with around 25 home runs while hitting third in a loaded Yankees lineup. That production is well worth rostering in most leagues, and Hicks is a worthwhile waiver target this week as a result.

Myles Straw, Houston Astros

25% rostered

Straw shot up draft boards after being named a leadoff candidate during spring training, but he’s been buried in the eighth spot in the Astros lineup so far this season. Despite his dive in lineup position, Straw remains an extremely attractive waiver add for one reason: stolen bases. Fangraphs projects only two hitters for more rest of season stolen bases than Straw’s 33, and every other hitter projected for at least 25 stolen bases is rostered in at least 75% of leagues.

Straw probably isn’t going to be great in any other categories in 2020, but he doesn’t have to be. Fantasy managers in need of stolen bases should strongly consider adding Straw this week, and he should be a target of fantasy managers who recently lost Adalberto Mondesi for the next few weeks.

Deeper League Pickups

Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants

14% rostered

I can understand some of the hesitancy around rostering Belt considering that the Giants are easing him into everyday action after a rough offseason that saw him get heel surgery and fight off coronavirus and mononucleosis, but Belt is simply too productive to be rostered in only 14% of leagues. Belt’s knees were finally back to full strength in 2020, helping him post an impressive .598 xSLG.

It’s important to note that Belt was no slouch before injuring his knees -- between 2015 and 2017, Belt’s .512 xSLG ranked 21st among hitters with at least 1000 PA, and his .845 OPS was more than serviceable. Fantasy managers should expect Belt to produce at that level again this season as long as he stays (relatively) healthy, and he’s worth a look on waivers as a result.

Jay Bruce, New York Yankees

3% rostered

Fantasy managers in deep leagues who need home runs would do well to look to Bruce, at least until Luke Voit returns from his knee injury (likely in mid-to-late May). Bruce’s left-handed power was tailor-made for Yankee Stadium’s short porch as he pulled over 50% of his batted balls last season, and his still above-average power (38.9% hard-hit rate in 2020) should allow him to rack up home runs when playing at home this year. Visually, Bruce’s fit is clear -- consider what his hard-hit balls from the past three seasons look like overlaid on Yankee Stadium.

Although Bruce probably won’t provide much in the way of batting average and his spot near the bottom of the team’s lineup isn’t ideal, Bruce should be a solid three-category contributor (home runs, runs, RBI) when he plays this season. That’s enough to make Bruce worth considering on waivers, and fantasy managers should keep him in mind this weekend.

Luis Arraez, Minnesota Twins

19% rostered

Arraez has a legitimate chance to lead the league in batting average and hits at the top of a solid Minnesota lineup. He’s also projected for the highest wOBA of outfielders available in more than 80% of leagues at .338 (putting him just below Alex Verdugo’s projection), and he’s likely to steal a handful of bases this season as well.

There’s a little bit of a platoon risk for Arraez this season, but he should receive more than enough playing time to keep him fantasy relevant. Fantasy managers who need to shore up their team’s batting average couldn’t do any better on waivers, and Arraez is worth consideration from other fantasy managers as well.

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