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Scott Engel conducts a one-man fantasy football mock draft during the 2020 NFL preseason. Which players are higher and lower than ADP consensus?
This is my latest one-man mock exercise of 2020 as the new season inches closer. I put myself in the draft chairs and minds of every owner in an advance look at the 2020 season.
The four rounds of this early one-man mock are based on a 12-team, full PPR format. I have considered roster structure for each spot when I make the choices. The format is based on the standard four points for a TD pass and helps you build the shell of your starting lineup.
The picks and flow here are based on my own personal rankings and the flow of the draft itself. This is not how you will see many drafts play out, as it’s tied to my preferences and ratings. I will take some players earlier than the consensus, and some others later than what you might consistently see. If I am in any one of the 12 positions to leap earlier for a player I really like, I am going to be more aggressive on where he is taken. If I am lower than the herd on a player, I will let him slip further than he may go in many drafts. Either type of move is a signal to you who I may believe is underrated or overrated.
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Round One
- Christian McCaffrey: This would seem to be a surefire obvious pick, but it’s not. The player at No. 2 can outscore everyone if he stays healthy. But CMC is more durable than the next RB off the board.
- Saquon Barkley: He has more big-play upside than McCaffrey and we have yet to see him fully reach his incredible potential as both a fantasy and real-life player. Soon everyone will fully understand why the Giants spent a No. 2 overall pick on Barkley.
- Ezekiel Elliott: A very safe choice for reliability and versatility. Dallas has improved the passing game, but Zeke is still the real engine of the offense.
- Alvin Kamara: Good health should translate a big rebound year. The key is to get those TD numbers back up to be fully worthy of this lofty fantasy draft slot.
- Michael Thomas: No one can rival him for annual excellence at WR. If he slips any further than this slot, take him and grab an RB with your second pick.
- Derrick Henry: He is an unstoppable force who can roll up huge rushing and TD numbers to the point where you can cope with the lack of receptions. He could potentially lead the league in rushing yards and TDs.
- Joe Mixon: Admirably earned every yard on bad teams and now can flourish as the offense has improved around him. The 2020 campaign could be his best yet.
- Lamar Jackson: This is an Engel Special, as you know by now. You get RB production at QB. Even if he regresses you can still expect 900-plus rushing yards and approximately 28 TD passes.
- Davante Adams: The Packers did not bring in anyone else of significance in the passing game, so he will continue to be Green Bay’s dominant pass-catcher. Adams’ Hog Rate, according to playerprofiler.com, was 19.9%, fourth in the league.
- Tyreek Hill: The most dangerous receiver in the NFL in the league’s best passing game. When you are late in the first round you go for this great upside and then make sure you grab an RB a few picks later in the second round.
- Julio Jones: He was second to Thomas in receiving yardage last season and he is not done. If you tell me he is 31 years old, I will say give me one more year before I start being concerned about his age. I will not expect a drop-off in 2020.
- Dalvin Cook: You won’t see him slip this far in most drafts, but I just cannot spend a top-10 pick on Cook when he has yet to play a full season in three years.
Round Two
- Kenyan Drake: He is fully set to be the lead RB for the Cardinals after a superb second half in 2019. He will post RB1-type numbers now that he is on a team that embraces his skills and utilizes Drake as he should be.
- Miles Sanders: He is going in the first round in some drafts. The opportunity is there to be the unquestioned lead RB for Philadelphia, he just needs to be more consistent as an inside and short-yardage runner.
- Nick Chubb: Do not overrate the presence of Kareem Hunt. Chubb was second in the NFL in rushing last year and will still be the No. 1 ball carrier for Cleveland. Chubb registered four 100-yard games when Hunt was back with the Browns last year.
- Josh Jacobs: This should be the breakthrough year if he avoids injuries. Jacob has the look of a star and will be the crux of the Las Vegas offense.
- Melvin Gordon III: Another Engel Special. You should be able to get him later than this in many drafts, but RBs go so quickly and he is the best one left at this point. Look for him to recapture the form that made him a first-round fantasy pick just two years ago.
- Travis Kelce: Only eight WRs had better fantasy production than Kelce last year, so you are picking up top wide receiver output at TE, the thinnest position in the game.
- Austin Ekeler: He will be taken a few slots earlier in some drafts, but I don’t project him for more than a split rushing workload and a slight decline in receptions. I do like Ekeler, he's just a bit lower than many others have him ranked.
- Leonard Fournette: There will be an expected fall-off in receptions, but there should be positive regression in TD production. He will fall further than this in many drafts. I don’t think he should. Fournette stayed healthy last year and was sixth among RBs in rushing yards while displaying newfound versatility. Even if the receiving numbers drop he can still be good for 50 catches. If you are anti-Fournette, you can go for Aaron Jones or Clyde Edwards-Helaire here.
- DeAndre Hopkins: Letting him slide this far could be a mistake. Kyler Murray is capable of putting up passing numbers comparable or even better than Deshaun Watson has, and Hopkins could see his yardage and TD numbers remain at standout levels while still catching 100 passes. He is still the clear standout WR on his new team.
- Chris Godwin: The Buccaneers won’t throw as frequently as they did with Jameis Winston, but the offense should be better overall and Godwin will be his top target. Tampa Bay will play winning football and Godwin will be a premier contributor.
- Aaron Jones: The Packers now rely more on their running game, and Jones will continue to be their lead RB for at least one more season, even if he scores a bit less than he did last year.
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire: The sexy rookie pick, he still must beat out Damien Williams for the lead RB role. That may take some time, yet it should happen. You may have to be patient with him early in the schedule.
Round Three
- Kenny Golladay: Led the league in TD catches last year without his starting QB for half of the schedule.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster: He is in a contract year and Ben Roethlisberger will return to boost his numbers back up to expected levels.
- Cam Akers: You cannot let him slip further than the third round if RBs are going to fly off the board. It’s not going to look like a reach when we look back at the end of the season.
- Le’Veon Bell: This does not seem like an exciting pick, but it can be if Sam Darnold improves and opponents start to respect the passing game more. Bell had a year to get back into the flow of the game and is still very talented. The alternatives here are not outstanding if you need an RB, although you could opt for Chris Carson if you want to take on the risk.
- Chris Carson: He will play at an RB1 level when available, but make sure you get Carlos Hyde later as an essential backup to Carson.
- Amari Cooper: Bank on 75 catches, 1,100 yards, and seven TDs as his floor. There is a higher ceiling possible as he should have some big weeks as CeeDee Lamb takes away some defensive attention.
- James Conner: Can be a quality RB2 when he is on the field, and the Steelers offense should bounce back this year.
- David Johnson: I am not a big fan of this pick, but this is where you have to take Johnson if you want him when RB starters are becoming scarce so quickly.
- George Kittle: Do not let the quiet postseason scare you off at all.
- Adam Thielen: Free and clear to be the unquestioned WR1 in Minnesota, he will be very busy.
- Mike Evans: Should be the lesser WR of the top two in Tampa Bay with Brady, yet still capable of being a solid fantasy WR2.
- Cooper Kupp: He may be a bit underrated and is a terrific pick as a fantasy WR2.
Round Four
- Allen Robinson II: Was so impressive working for quality numbers while enduring erratic QB play that may continue.
- Odell Beckham Jr.: If Mayfield turns into a quality pro QB this can be a value pick.
- Raheem Mostert: Hungry for a new deal and very explosive, will prove he deserves a raise.
- D’Andre Swift: The Lions know they cannot count on Kerryon Johnson and want to establish a dependable ground game.
- DK Metcalf: The explanation of why he goes at this point fully detailed here.
- Keenan Allen: Yes, there is a QB downgrade, but Allen can still be a very good fantasy WR2.
- DeVante Parker: He has tough matchups in the division? Parker burned both the Patriots and Bills for 130-plus yards last year. He is for real.
- Tyler Lockett: The Seattle passing game will support two quality fantasy WR2 options.
- Calvin Ridley: The TD production is apparent, now it’s time for the other numbers to rise.
- Mark Andrews: The favorite target for Lamar Jackson since his rookie year.
- Patrick Mahomes: Will go earlier in many drafts, but I could not bring myself to go very early on anyone at QB other than Jackson. No one else has the rushing floor at the position.
- D.J. Moore: Hopefully we see more TD production from Moore with Teddy Bridgewater under center.
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