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Bell-cow running backs in the NFL have become about as rare as having a positive interaction on social media. As a result, it's getting extremely difficult to find a workhorse back in fantasy football drafts. That makes our job as fantasy players trickier.
While we typically want to target backfields with bell-cow rushers, there are times we should proceed with caution. Fantasy gamers learned this lesson with Alexander Mattison last year. Just because a player is poised to lead the backfield, it doesn’t mean he will continue to do so once the season begins.
Make sure you follow RotoBaller on X and check out RotoBaller.com for all your fantasy football needs. With that said, here are five one-man backfields to avoid in your 2024 fantasy football draft.
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Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers
While Jacobs enjoyed a career year in 2022, his 2023 season was a disappointment. He finished as the RB28 one year removed from an RB3 finish. Even more troubling were some of Jacobs’ advanced metrics. He finished 45th in Next Gen Stats' Rush Yards Over Expectation (RYOE), 41st in Rush Yards Over Expectation Per Attempt (RYOE/ATT), and 81st in Fantasy Points Data Suite’s Missed Tackles Forced Per Attempt (MTF/ATT). These are concerning marks, and outside of his 2022 season, Jacobs has never been a very efficient player.
The team also drafted rookie MarShawn Lloyd in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Lloyd was one of the best backs in the class on pure talent, but he has a major fumbling problem. The Packers have stated they see “shades of Aaron Jones” in Lloyd’s film. If that statement is true, it makes you wonder how the team views Jacobs.
Green Bay does have an out in Jacobs’ contract after this season. It can get out of the deal for only a $9 million dead cap hit. If he continues to struggle, Green Bay might give Lloyd an extended run with more touches. There’s just a little too much risk to recommend investing in Jacobs.
D’Andre Swift, Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears began their offseason by signing Swift to a three-year, $24 million contract. The 2023 season was a career year for him. He accumulated over 1,200 scrimmage yards and eclipsed the 1,000 rushing-yard mark for the first time in his career.
D’ANDRE SWIFT TOUCHDOWN #FlyEaglesFly
pic.twitter.com/DjUFTGBSaJ— Barstool Philly (@BarstoolPhilly) October 1, 2023
While Swift’s surface-level stats look good, the underlying metrics paint a different picture. He finished only 40th in RYOE. Among running backs with at least 90 carries, Swift finished 32nd in Elusive Rating, 36th in PFF’s Rushing Grade, and 30th in Fantasy Points Data Suite’s Missed Tackles Forced Per Attempt (MTF/ATT). Looking at this data, it’s unclear that Swift is even the best running back on the Bears roster.
Teammate Khalil Herbert graded higher than Swift in every one of the above metrics. Herbert finished ninth in Elusive Rating, 20th in RYOE, ninth in MTF/ATT, and was PFF’s 14th-highest-graded rusher. It’s not unreasonable to suggest he could eventually emerge as the preferred back. Now, there have been rumors that Herbert could be on the roster bubble. Should he be released, it would obviously remove some major competition. However, it still doesn’t mean Swift is completely safe if his play remains subpar.
There is precedent for a team turning away from a back after signing him to a big contract. Just last year, we saw the Carolina Panthers bench starter Miles Sanders in favor of Chuba Hubbard after they inked Sanders to a four-year, $25.4 million deal. If Swift struggles or injuries plague him, don’t be surprised if Herbert or someone else can wrestle the starting job away.
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
Kamara enters his age-29 season fully entrenched as the team's starting running back. He had another strong season as he finished as the overall RB12 in PPR leagues and was the RB3 in fantasy points per game (PPG).
#Saints RB Alvin Kamara catches and runs for a 18-Yard Touchdown. The Saints even the game in Indy#Saints- 7
1Q#Colts- 7
— SportsCastProductions (@SportsCastProd) October 29, 2023
Despite the strong showing, he seems to be a player in decline. Kamara posted career lows in rushing yards, yards per reception (Y/R), and yards per target (Y/TGT). His advanced metrics don’t inspire a ton of confidence, either.
Reminder- out of 49 RBs with 90+ carries Alvin Kamara ranked:
40th in @FantasyPtsData MTF/ATT
46th in @NextGenStats RYOE
47th in @PFF Elusive RatingHe seems to be a player in decline and is an easy fade in fantasy football drafts.
— Dave Ventresca (@FF_Stallion) June 26, 2024
Kamara still holds value in PPR leagues thanks to his work as a pass-catcher. Another strong fantasy finish is possible, but he appears to be on his last legs. Running backs can fall off the age cliff very fast and take their value with them. It's best to avoid Kamara this year.
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The 2023 season was a true breakout season for White as he finished as the PPR RB4.
Rachaad White 31-Yard Touchdown!
pic.twitter.com/2QopotDLFW— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) December 10, 2023
Even though White delivered the goods for fantasy managers, things get a little concerning when we look under the hood. Among 49 rushers with at least 90 carries, White finished:
42nd in MTF/ATT
49th in RYOE
44th in PFF’s Rushing Grade
28th in PFF’s Elusive Rating
40th in Fantasy Points Data Suite’s Explosive Run Percentage (EXP RUN %)
Here is how White finished in these same metrics as a rookie in 2022 (Among 48 rushers with 90+ carries):
46th in MTF/ATT
39th RYOE
46th in PFF Rushing Grade
41st in Elusive Rating
38th in Exp Run %
Two years in, we have enough data to say White is a below-average back at the NFL level. It may only be a matter of time until his inefficiency catches up with him.
Joe Mixon, Houston Texans
Mixon was traded from the Cincinnati Bengals to the Houston Texans in the opening days of NFL free agency. He now plays alongside C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Stefon Diggs. While many think this is great news for Mixon's 2024 season, we may want to pump the brakes a bit.
Despite seeing many light boxes the last two years with the Bengals, Mixon hasn't been able to take advantage. Per Next Gen Stats, Mixon saw 8+ defenders in the box at the 15th-lowest rate last season. Despite this advantage, he only finished 27th in RYOE and couldn't muster more than 4.0 yards per carry. He didn't fare much better against light boxes in 2022, either. According to Sharp Football, Mixon had the highest percentage of his runs come against light boxes in 2022. Among backs with 100+ carries, he was 39th in yards after contact per carry, 34th in runs of 10+ yards, and 36th in yards per carry.
It's also worth questioning whether Mixon is a good fit for offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik's system.
My concern here is the same as it was with Dameon Pierce.
"He's a good runner, but he might not be a great fit for Slowik's Shanahan-influenced outside zone running scheme."
Man / Gap Concept Runs [2022-2023]
Dameon Pierce: 4.05 YPC
Joe Mixon: 4.45 YPCZone Concept Runs… https://t.co/b1XPhuajdJ
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) March 12, 2024
Mixon failed to capitalize when seeing light boxes in Cincinnati playing with Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins. There isn't anything to suggest Mixon will take advantage of a similarly favorable situation in Houston. He also turns 28 this summer. We can't completely rule out his play falling off a cliff. If that happens, given his career 4.1 YPC, we could be looking at a disaster season in the worst-case scenario. It's better to pass and let someone more bullish take Mixon.
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