RADIO
Eli analyzes disappointing players from last week to find potential Week 9 fantasy football buy-lows, sleepers and risers based on play-calling and historical data.
We now enter the eighth week of this series, where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on coaching in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.
In Week 8, we saw stat lines such as the Philadelphia Eagles running backs combining for 37 carries, the Atlanta Falcons tight ends combining for 17 receiving yards, and the San Francisco 49ers wide receivers combining for 275 receiving yards.
After these types of performances, it is important to look at each of these teams' coaches and their play-calling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.
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Fantasy Football Improvement Ahead?
This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement and which areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. Let's dive in! These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.
Green Bay Packers Wide Receivers
Matt LaFleur & Nathaniel Hackett
| WR Rec. | WR Tgts | WR Rec. Yds | WR Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Packers | 12.69 | 18.13 | 172.75 | 1.81 |
| Matt LaFleur Prior (64 games) | 11.59 | 18.31 | 150.98 | 1.06 |
| Nathaniel Hackett Prior (100 games) | 11.33 | 19.63 | 148.93 | 0.97 |
| Packers WRs vs Arizona Cardinals | 10 | 17 | 64 | 2 |
The Green Bay Packers wide receiver room was missing some key playmakers this past Thursday and totaled just 10 receptions on 17 targets for 64 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns. After this game, this group has totaled 102 receptions (12.75 per game) on 153 targets (19.13 per game) for 1294 receiving yards (161.75 per game) and ten receiving touchdowns (1.25 per game) on the season. Based on the data, it's clear that the Packers wide receivers will have better days than this past Thursday, particularly in the receiving yards department.
Fantasy players this impacts: Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Allen Lazard, Amari Rodgers
Atlanta Falcons Tight Ends
Arthur Smith
| TE Rec. | TE Tgts | TE Rec. Yds | TE Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Falcons | 4.13 | 6.5 | 41.19 | 0.38 |
| Arthur Smith Prior (32 games) | 5.31 | 7.66 | 59.84 | 0.59 |
| Falcons TEs vs. Carolina Panthers | 4 | 9 | 17 | 0 |
The Atlanta Falcons tight end room combined for four receptions, nine targets, 17 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns against the Carolina Panthers. On the season this group has now totaled 59 receptions (8.43 per game) on 82 targets (11.71 per game) for 679 receiving yards (97 per game) and three receiving touchdowns (0.43 per game). Sunday's numbers were a little disappointing for this group - particularly the 17 receiving yards. Having said this, the season per game numbers are very strong and are supported by Arthur Smith's previous usage and success with tight ends. There will certainly be better days ahead for the Falcons' tight ends.
Fantasy players this impacts: Kyle Pitts and Hayden Hurst
Carolina Panthers Wide Receivers
Matt Rhule & Joe Brady
| WR Rec. | WR Tgts | WR Rec. Yds | WR Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Carolina Panthers | 15.69 | 23.19 | 205.75 | 0.63 |
| Matt Rhule & Joe Brady Prior (16 games) | 15.69 | 23.19 | 205.75 | 0.63 |
| Panthers WRs vs. Atlanta Falcons | 5 | 11 | 57 | 0 |
The Carolina Panthers wide receiver room had a subpar day against the Atlanta Falcons where they combined for five receptions on 11 targets, 57 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. On the season they have totaled 98 receptions (12.25 per game) on 174 targets (21.75 per game) for 1181 receiving yards (147.63 per game) and six receiving touchdowns (0.75 per game). Going into the season, Matt Rhule and Joe Brady were expected to be among the better coaches for wide receivers, and thus far the 2021 Panthers wide receiver room has been fairly mediocre. There will be better performances from this group than this past Sunday, and there's even some possible room for growth on the season averages based on what we've previously seen from Rhule & Brady's offense.
Fantasy players this impacts: D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, Brandon Zylstra, and Terrace Marshall Jr.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Running Backs
Bruce Arians & Byron Leftwich
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Buccaneers | 20.31 | 92.81 | 0.81 | 5.25 | 7.38 | 33.31 | 0.13 |
| Bruce Arians Prior (256 games) | 23.62 | 93.63 | 0.66 | 4.11 | 5.91 | 34.46 | 0.13 |
| Byron Leftwich Prior (41 games) | 20.95 | 84.61 | 0.76 | 5.20 | 7.20 | 39.63 | 0.12 |
| Buccaneers RBs vs. New Orleans Saints | 13 | 69 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 30 | 1 |
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers running backs combined for just 13 carries, 69 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, five receptions, seven targets, 30 receiving yards, and one receiving touchdown. On the season this group has now totaled 156 carries (19.5 per game), 711 rushing yards (88.88 per game), five rushing touchdowns (0.63 per game), 54 receptions (6.75 per game), 68 targets (8.5 per game), 387 receiving yards (48.38 per game), and three receiving touchdowns (0.38 per game). Clearly, Sunday's performance was a subpar performance, but overall the per game season averages are right in line with what we should expect from a Bruce Arians & Byron Leftwich running back room.
Fantasy players this impacts: Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones II, Ke'Shawn Vaughn, and Giovani Bernard
Decline Ahead?
A mentioned above, this article also looks at which teams and areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. These are the areas and positions that will likely decline in the coming weeks based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.
Dallas Cowboys Wide Receivers
Mike McCarthy & Kellen Moore
| WR Rec. | WR Tgts | WR Rec. Yds | WR Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Cowboys | 16 | 24.88 | 202.19 | 1.06 |
| Mike McCarthy Prior (316 games) | 13.15 | 21.93 | 179.79 | 1.30 |
| Kellen Moore Prior (32 games) | 15 | 23.59 | 209.69 | 1.16 |
| Cowboys WRs vs Minnesota Vikings | 18 | 26 | 325 | 2 |
The Dallas Cowboys wide receiver room combined for 18 receptions, 26 targets, 325 receiving yards, and two receiving touchdowns against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday Night Football this past week. After this game, this group has totaled 105 receptions (15 per game) on 152 targets (21.71 per game) for 1491 receiving yards (213 per game) and 12 receiving touchdowns (1.71 per game). Mike McCarthy and Kellen Moore are two of the best coaches in the NFL for wide receiver usage & production, but even so, you shouldn't necessarily expect performances to the level of this past Sunday every week.
Fantasy players this impacts: CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, Noah Brown, Cedrick Wilson
Philadelphia Eagles Running Backs
Nick Sirianni & Shane Steichen
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Eagles | 17.38 | 84.38 | 0.5 | 3.75 | 6.06 | 27.25 | 0.06 |
| Nick Sirianni Prior (48 games) | 24.08 | 110.33 | 0.83 | 5.85 | 7.31 | 42.42 | 0.17 |
| Shane Steichen Prior (24 games) | 24.08 | 99.33 | 0.54 | 8.29 | 10.17 | 67.46 | 0.21 |
| Eagles RBs vs. Detroit Lions | 37 | 144 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
The Philadelphia Eagles running backs consistently landed on the improvement section of this list in the first six games of the year and finally this past Sunday they land on the other side of the list after they combined for 37 carries, 144 rushing yards, four rushing touchdowns, zero receptions, one target, zero receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. After this game, this group has totaled 133 carries (16.63 per game), 588 rushing yards (73.5 per game), seven rushing touchdowns (0.88 per game), 41 receptions (5.13 per game), 60 targets (7.5 per game), 292 receiving yards (36.5 per game), and a receiving touchdown (0.13 per game) on the season. Going forward, we shouldn't expect stat lines like this past Sunday for the Eagles running backs, but there is some room for growth on the season per game totals based on Sirianni & Steichen's previous usage of the position.
Fantasy players this impacts: Miles Sanders, Boston Scott, Jordan Howard, and Kenneth Gainwell
San Francisco 49ers Wide Receivers
Kyle Shanahan & Mike McDaniel
| WR Rec. | WR Tgts | WR Rec. Yds | WR Rec. TD | |
| 2020 49ers | 11.38 | 17.5 | 146 | 0.56 |
| Kyle Shanahan Prior (208 games) | 11.90 | 19.75 | 161.23 | 0.87 |
| 49ers WRs vs. Chicago Bears | 13 | 22 | 275 | 0 |
The San Francisco 49ers wide receivers went off against the Chicago Bears this past week as they combined for 13 receptions, 22 targets, 275 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. After this game, they have totaled 78 receptions (11.14 per game) on 136 targets (19.43 per game) for 1204 receiving yards (172 per game) and seven receiving touchdowns (one per game) on the season. Comparing this information with Kyle Shanahan's typical wide receiver room, the 2021 49ers wide receivers appear to be running on the higher side of what we'd expect and there could a dip in performance coming in future weeks.
Fantasy players this impacts: Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Mohamed Sanu, and Trent Sherfield
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