RADIO
It really is remarkable each week in the NFL that more quarterbacks and other high-profile players are not injured on a weekly basis due to poor offensive line play. There are currently seven teams with a sack rate of over 10% after the conclusion of Week 3 including the Texans and Bengals, two of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Imagine a quarterback being sacked on one of every 10 pass attempts and that quarterback actually making it through the entire NFL season. It simply will not happen.
There are stark differences between offensive lines near the bottom of the league and ones that fare much better. Top offensive lines like the Titans and Cowboys are only giving up a sack on 2% or 3.7% of dropbacks respectively. That is just one way to protect a young quarterback to help to assure health throughout the season.
There were a couple offensive lines that surprised this past week in particular. Both the Bears and Panthers performed very well despite very different results. The Bears shockingly defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers at home in overtime, while the Panthers were blown out at home by the Saints. Let’s check out how these offensive lines fared in Week 3 and see their potential impact on fantasy worthy players going forward.
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Offensive Lines to Watch
Chicago Bears
While it hasn’t been all smiles and rainbows so far this season in Chicago, the Bears were able to stay on script and run over the Pittsburgh Steelers on their way to a 23-17 victory in Week 3. What was so impressive was the fact that the Bears were able to total over 200 rushing yards without former Pro Bowl guard Josh Sitton. Sitton did not get off the greatest of starts this season grading out as 51.7 according to Pro Football Focus, but is a rock in the middle of the offensive line along with Kyle Long and Cody Whitehair. Long came back in Week 3 and delivered, grading out as a 79.1 according to PFF. Long provided a much needed boost to the interior of the Bears offensive line. If Sitton can return to sure things in the middle, they could get back to their true road-grating ways of 2016.Specifically against the Steelers, the Bears ran outside zone and stretch rushing concepts extremely well. You will see on both of these plays, the left side of the offensive line and tight end is able to create a seam for Jordan Howard to run through and get to the second level. Howard is then able to get north and south for quality gains.
Another dominant performance by the offensive line came on Howard’s first touchdown run. Notice the crease that is created on the left side of the offensive line by Charles Leno Jr. (left tackle) and Sitton’s replacement at left guard, Bradley Sowell. This provided the running back, Howard in this case an easy read and walk-in touchdown.
Even though the Bears were dominating on the ground throughout the game, there were numerous mental errors, including one false start by Sowell and another miscommunication along the entire offensive line that helped lead to a punt in a crucial time in the 4th quarter. Mental errors like this simply cannot happen for a team that is looking to dominate on the ground and have deficiencies in the passing game.
Fantasy Impact
Stock Up: Jordan Howard / Tarik Cohen
Not only will both of these players be leaned on in the passing game (Howard and Cohen caught nine of Mike Glennon’s 15 completions), but if the team can continue to stay in positive game scripts and get healthy, expect both to be able to be factors on the ground as well. Howard in particular, who needs room to run and a lane to gain momentum going, should be the beneficiary if the team continues to be able to effectively run outside zone and stretch plays. Once there is separation in the level of the defensive line and linebackers, Howard should be able to pick out a lane to get downhill. This past week is exactly how the Bears would like to play the remainder of their games throughout the season, run near 40 times and limit the potential for mistakes from their quarterback. This should be the tipping point for more success for Jordan Howard. Howard should be a sold RB2 in matchups against teams without great offensive firepower.
Tarik Cohen not only was an effective receiver, but was incredible in the running game in Week 3. Cohen consistently makes defenders miss and is able to weave in and out of traffic like on his near game-winning score. He is truly an issue in space even for top defenders like Ryan Shazier. Look for him to still receive around 12-16 touches per game as Howard’s compliment. Cohen is an every-week start in PPR leagues.
Stock Down: Kendall Wright
Wright was the clearly playing second-fiddle to the now healthy Markus Wheaton. Wheaton and Deonte Thompson both played at least 60% of the total snaps Sunday, with Wright playing 54% of the snaps. The Bears will look to favor the run if possible going forward when game scripts allow. Wright did not even have a target in Week 3 and can be safely dropped except in the deepest of leagues.
Carolina Panthers
It’s quite amazing how this offense has spun its wheels throughout the first three games of this season. Generally, the Panthers’ offensive line has played well this season; especially their guards (Trai Turner and Andrew Norwell) and combination of centers (Ryan Kalil and Tyler Larsen). They stand stout in pass protection and are consistently picking up blitzes and keeping Cam clean in the pocket. Turner, Norwell and Larsen are all graded over 80.0 in pass blocking according to Pro Football Focus, with Ryan Kalil serviceably at a 71.6. These two clips demonstrate just how stout the line has been in the middle. The first is a three-step drop from Cam where he misreads the coverage and the corner is able to break up the slant. The line holds their ground firmly to enable Cam to throw to his intended receiver. In the second clip, Cam has a totally clean pocket, but on a deep ball, Cam Newton throws off his back foot leading to an incompletion out of bounds. There are numerous occasions due to poor mechanics; Newton is inaccurate even though he has a totally clean pocket around him.
The Panthers running game this season has been outperforming the passing game from an output perspective, even if the offensive line hasn’t graded out as well. Right tackle Daryl Williams and left guard Andrew Norwell each are grading poorly in the run game versus the passing game (Norwell a 40.9 vs 87.3 and Williams a 47.7 vs. 73.5),but have produced significantly better results. While running around the left end of the line and in the middle between each guard position, the Panthers are 13th and 18th respectively in the NFL according to Football Outsiders in adjusted line yards with 3.19 around the left and 3.8 yards in the middle. Here is an example of the line generating some horizontal and vertical push in the middle of the line against the Saints on an inside zone. Andrew Norwell washes down the defensive lineman down the line to create a lane for Jonathan Stewart to get to the second level where left tackle Ryan Kalil is able to impact the linebacker leading to a first down from Stewart.
Fantasy Impact
Stock Up: Jonathan Stewart
There has certainly been a commitment to the running game in Carolina when the Panthers are close in games and that should occur more often than not going forward. Stewart was only in for 44 percent of snaps in Week 3 due to a completely negative game script, but saw a ton of usage when he was on the field seeing 13 touches in those 26 snaps. Expect Stewart to see continued volume going forward if the defense can hold opposing offenses down. He has been a solid inside runner grading out at a 78.8 according to PFF so far as a runner through three weeks. Expect Stewart to be at least an every week flex going forward with high-end RB2 upside in good matchups.
Stock Down: Cam Newton
No, this downgrade isn’t due to the offensive line play in front of him, but the fact that Newton is not taking advantage of his protection. Newton has been wildly inaccurate throughout the season so far and just not looked comfortable in this new offense. Is Cam still favoring his shoulder after surgery? Is it just his poor mechanics and footwork? Fantasy owners in single QB leagues can drop Newton besides the deepest of leagues. Cam does have some rushing upside weekly; he scored in Week 3 after all, but let him prove his worth as a fantasy commodity.
Top Five Offensive Lines
1) Tennessee Titans
2) Oakland Raiders
3) Dallas Cowboys
4) Pittsburgh Steelers
5) Atlanta Falcons
Bottom Five Offensive Lines
32) New York Giants
31) Houston Texans
30) Arizona Cardinals
29) Cincinnati Bengals
28) Seattle Seahawks
For any questions about offensive line play in the NFL, feel free to contact me @TheRealHalupka on Twitter.
