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Read our best NRFI betting picks today - Major League Baseball NRFI predictions for 5/27/2025. No Runs First Inning (NRFI) betting tips, expert MLB predictions, odds, and trends.
Tuesdays always deliver with a huge slate of evening games that are ripe for betting purposes, and today is no different as we have 15 games that all start at 6:10 pm EST or later.
It is a bit of a challenging NRFI slate as it isn't a very strong group of pitchers today, however, there are still four spots for NRFI bets that stand out to me tonight.
In this piece, I'll provide my best NRFI bets today for MLB games on Tuesday, May 27, 2025. Monitor the weather and lineups for each team before placing your wagers. Odds for these bets today are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbook.
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What Are MLB NRFI/YRFI Bets?
NRFI bets are picks where you determine whether or not two MLB teams will score one run in the first inning. YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning," while NRFI means "No Run First Inning."
These are popular bets because bettors only have to sweat out the first inning and not the entire game's outcome. The most common outcome for the first inning is an NRFI, so the odds usually reflect that, with NRFI bets carrying shorter odds than YRFIs.
Even the best offenses in baseball are still only scoring a run in roughly 50% of their first innings. Every day, I'll weigh the Vegas odds against what I calculate to be the expected probability of an NRFI/YRFI in each MLB game and provide my top NRFI picks and/or YRFI picks for your consideration.
Best First Inning Bets Today (May 27, 2025)
- St. Louis Cardinals at Baltimore Orioles (6:35 pm)
- San Francisco Giants at Detroit Tigers (6:40 pm)
- Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers (8:05 pm)
- Athletics at Houston Astros (8:10 pm)
St. Louis Cardinals at Baltimore Orioles NRFI (-1115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers (NRFI record)
- STL: Andre Pallante (9-1)
- BAL: Tomoyuki Sugano (7-3)
At first glance, you might not think of this as an elite pitchers' duel, but both right-handers are quietly having very effective seasons in 2025. They just aren't very flashy, as both pitchers have very low strikeout rates; however, they both come into this game in good form and with strong NRFI results.
Pallante has reeled off nine straight NRFIs after giving up a run in his first start of the season. He has one of the best ground ball rates in the majors at 62%, which is how he manages to be so effective without overpowering stuff.
Sugano's first handful of MLB starts were rocky, but he's settled in nicely and has a NRFI streak of five games while lowering his ERA lately to just 3.07 on the season.
The Orioles' offense has disappointed as their nightmare season continues. They have scored in the first just twice in their last ten games while hitting just .190 in the first frame. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are sporting a 70% NRFI rate of their own over the last ten games, too.
There's a good chance we see a baserunner or two in the first inning, but both pitchers have been so successful in navigating trouble early that this bet looks pretty darn good to me at these odds.
San Francisco Giants at Detroit Tigers NRFI (-150 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers (NRFI record)
- SFG: Logan Webb (7-4)
- DET: Jack Flaherty (9-1)
Speaking of elite ground ball pitchers, Logan Webb takes the hill for the Giants today on the road in Detroit. Sometimes, those ground balls can go for hits and bite you when they find the holes in the defense, which happened to Webb in his last outing. But Webb still has a strong 2025 season and some solid NRFI results, so I am comfortable returning to him here.
Meanwhile, his opponent, Jack Flaherty, has a fantastic matchup against a Giants offense with just a 1-9 YRFI record over their last 10 games. Flaherty has been super solid early in games and should make quick work of the Giants (who are hitting just .143 in the first inning over their last ten games) today.
Career strikeout No. 1️⃣0️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ for Jack Flaherty! 👏 pic.twitter.com/ERwpVI6qEq
— MLB (@MLB) May 22, 2025
The price here is less than ideal, but you'll have that when you get two outstanding pitchers and a couple of mediocre offenses like we have in this game. I am okay paying the juice here, but if you want to parlay this bet with another one with short odds, I certainly don't blame you either.
Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers NRFI (-135 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers (NRFI record)
- TOR: Bowden Francis (9-1)
- TEX: Nathan Eovaldi (10-1)
We have our best overall combined record here with these two pitchers having a combined 19-2 NRFI record this season. Eovaldi's record reflects his elite full-game stats as he's enjoying a career year so far in 2025.
The same can not be said for Francis, who, despite his early inning success, has limped to a 5.54 ERA through his first 10 starts. Francis has had a major issue with the long ball, especially against lefties, as he's allowed 12 bombs this season in just 50 innings - YIKES.
A home run-prone pitcher always makes me nervous, but Francis has allowed only two of those home runs in the first inning this season, and both were in the same game. He still has a 0.60 WHIP in the first inning and has limited hitters to a .152 average.
If we look at the Rangers' projected lineup, Francis has to navigate past Sam Haggerty and Josh Smith as lefties in the first inning - neither of whom is a major home run threat. He would then see right-handers Wyatt Langford, Josh Jung, and Jake Burger if he gets that far. With Texas slumping on offense lately, I will take my shot on Francis keeping his run of strong early starts intact.
As far as NRFI success, the Rangers have scored just once in the first inning over their last ten innings. So I think we can bank on Eovaldi continuing his dominant season, while saying a few silent prayers that Francis can navigate a scoreless first and keep the ball in the yard.
Athletics at Houston Astros NRFI (-135 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers (NRFI record)
- HOU: Hunter Brown (7-3)
- ATH: JP Sears (10-0)
Hunter Brown finally looked human in his last start, but he is still enjoying the best season of his young career and is an AL Cy Young contender. He has a neutral matchup here against the Athletics, who have a bevy of good young hitters, but at least he gets them at home in a more pitcher-friendly park.
Hunter Brown's 9th K thru 7. pic.twitter.com/zwK2udUcjc
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 16, 2025
Meanwhile, Sears has a perfect 10-0 record in the first frame this season and gets the worst first-inning offense in baseball, as the Astros have an 83% offensive NRFI hit rate this year.
Sears will face almost all righties in this game, but he's been so strong early in games that I have to give him the edge anyway. He's allowed just one baserunner across his last five first innings.
These aren't our best odds, but this is easily my favorite bet on the slate today. I think these odds should be -150 or shorter with how good these pitchers have been this season. If I had to pick two NRFIs to parlay today, it would be this game and the Detroit-San Francisco game.
Notable NRFI/YRFI MLB Trends: Last 10 Games
- Longest NRFI Streak: Mets, Rangers, Giants (9-1)
- Best YRFI hit rate: Nationals (40%)
- Most First Inning Home Runs: Braves (5)
- Best First Inning Batting Average: Nationals (.413)
- Best First Inning On Base Percentage: Reds (.451)
While Tuesday's MLB schedule is packed with action, finding the right NRFI bets today requires sharp analysis and careful consideration of pitcher performance, offensive trends, and matchup context. Even on a slate where elite pitching is scarce, there are still prime opportunities to cash in with well-researched MLB NRFI betting plays.
From the sneaky value in the Cardinals-Orioles matchup to the dominant trends in the Athletics-Astros game, each of the four featured NRFI picks carries a compelling case based on current form and historical first-inning data. Whether you’re backing the reliable early-inning dominance of Flaherty or riding the perfect 10-0 NRFI streak of Sears, there’s plenty of reason to be optimistic about this evening’s board.
As always, be sure to monitor weather and lineup changes before locking in your MLB NRFI bets.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and thanks for reading!
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