RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~94 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~108
ANALYSIS: The entire Denver offense was put through the wringer last season. Nothing was easy. Quarterback Russell Wilson was playing on a new team, in a new city, with a new coach for the first time in his NFL career. That new coach, Nathaniel Hackett, did so poorly that he was canned after one season. There have been just 23 head coaches fired after one season in the history of the NFL. You’ve got to be very, very bad and the Denver front office believed Hackett was that bad.
That’d be enough to doom most teams, but there’s more. Injuries, injuries, and more injuries. Wilson missed one game and played through a partly torn hamstring. Starting running back Javonte Williams played just 12% of the snaps. Pass-catchers, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, and Greg Dulcich played just 77%, 62%, 0%, and 43% of the snaps, respectively.
The offensive line was also hit hard. Starting tackles Garrett Boles and Billy Turner played just 28% and 42% of the snaps. Interior starters, Quinn Meinerz, Lloyd Cushenberry III, and Dalton Risner played 66%, 44%, and 85% of the snaps, respectively.
That is a whole heck of a lot to overcome when your head coach and quarterback are in their first year working together. It led to the Broncos finishing 32nd in points and 21st in yards. Despite all of that, Sutton was more productive than a lot of fantasy managers would like to admit.
| Courtland Sutton 2023 Per Game Stats Sans Week 13 (Under 50% Snap Share and Left Injured) | |||||
| Target Share | TPG | RPG | RYPG | TD PG | Half-PPR PPG |
| 23.6% | 7.7 | 4.6 | 59.2 | 0.14 | 9.1 |
Over 17 games, Sutton was on pace for 131 targets, 78 receptions, 1,006 yards, and two touchdowns. Considering everything this team went through, that’s pretty good. His 9.1 half-PPR PPG would’ve ranked as the WR39, but he’s routinely drafted much closer to WR50. This is despite scoring just two touchdowns.
He was identified as one receiver who should be expected to experience touchdown progression in 2023 in a recent series of articles here at RotoBaller. It should be noted, that DK Metcalf and Brandon Johnson also are included.
With the expected improvement from Wilson, the positive effect from the hire of Sean Payton, and some better touchdown luck, Sutton could very well be one of the better values in fantasy football drafts. He’s in a great position for a strong bounce-back season.
Editor's Note: Since this analysis was first written, fellow Broncos wideout Tim Patrick suffered a season-ending injury.
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