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ANALYSIS: Nick Pivetta posted ghastly ratios last season as a rookie (6.02 ERA, 1.51 WHIP), thanks in large part to allowing 25 home runs in just 133 innings. Look closer, though, and you can see reasons for optimism. Pivetta’s 18.2 HR/FB% isn’t likely to repeat itself in 2018, nor is his 67.1% strand rate. He also got rather unlucky with a league-worst .327 BABIP on ground balls, when his expected BABIP on those based on hard-hit rate would have come in at .249 – much closer to the .241 league average. The Phillies should boast a better infield defense this season, with Carlos Santana replacing slow, stone-handed Tommy Joseph at first and J.P. Crawford taking the reins at shortstop. Pivetta also struck out over a batter per inning despite his struggles last year, making him just one of 34 starters to accomplish that feat.
The 25-year-old off to a terrific start in 2018, with a 2.70 ERA and 0.96 WHIP through three appearances. He’s struck out 19 batters and walked only one. He’s locating his curveball better and throwing it more often, while essentially abandoning his lousy changeup. Fantasy owners are only just beginning to take notice of him, and chances are he's still available in your league.
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