RADIO
We're in the final stretch of fantasy football preseason, with a few precious days remaining to draft your teams. It's been a long offseason, but Week 1 is finally pulling into the station. With nearly all of my teams ready for battle, it's time for an entertaining final piece with my bold predictions.
You've seen many articles from me, so most of these won't be surprising to avid Big Pick Nick readers, but we still have to formalize these things. And there's always more room on the train! With hundreds of best ball teams in the bag and enough managed leagues to eat up an entire Tuesday evening, there are just a few more things on the checklist.
We've had plenty of calculated articles across the offseason, but this piece gives me a chance to spread my wings. Let me kick off my 10th season at RotoBaller with some bold predictions for the 2024 Fantasy Football season! Let's get to it, RotoBallers.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
- Running back fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
- Tight end fantasy football rankings
- Kicker fantasy football rankings
- FLEX fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- Superflex fantasy football rankings
- IDP fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
Will Levis takes the Jordan Love leap toward top-12 QB status
Few teams have undergone as seismic an identity shift as the 2024 Tennessee Titans. The Mike Vrabel-Derrick Henry era was an entertaining ride if you like gritty, hard-nosed, smashmouth football. But the jukebox has moved on to the next tune from DJ Brian Callahan.
Only four NFL teams attempted fewer passes in the red zone last season than the Titans. You don’t want to be on lists with the 2023 Steelers, Panthers, Giants, and Patriots passing offenses. Levis sporting a poor 3.1% touchdown rate makes more sense.
While I think Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears are strong runners, they’re not King Henry and are also great pass-catching options. The mold of RB change alone signals a philosophical shift, but now upgrade Treylon Burks to Calvin Ridley and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine/Chris Moore/Kyle Philips to Tyler Boyd.
The defense still isn’t winning games on its own here. The WR corps has undergone a massive upgrade, while both Pollard and Spears caught over 50 passes last year out of the backfield.
They are molding this team around Levis for a sink-or-swim season. If he stinks it up then fine, QB replacement value is robust in most leagues, which is why we are aiming for the stars. Let’s see if that guy who slung four passing TDs in his debut game can become the norm.
Will Levis finds Calvin Ridley WIDE OPEN for a 33-yard gain! Another explosive play off play-action. Levis is 6/6 for 112 yards after 1 quarter in New Orleans #TENvsNO pic.twitter.com/QY7L0UN5Ng
— Justin Graver (@titansfilmroom) August 25, 2024
Kenneth Walker III is a top-five running back (half-PPR)
The passing game is (rightfully) absorbing ample spotlight, but KW3 cannot be overlooked. You can believe in Zach Charbonnet as a strong spellback/handcuff, but he and Walker are both 23 years old going into the season.
Not only was Walker one of eight running backs with over 70% of his team’s inside-the-five carry share in 2023, but he tied with Christian McCaffrey for the most missed tackles forced per the FantasyPoints Data Suite. His MTF per attempt was 0.31 compared to CMC’s 0.25 figure as well.
The man can make magic happen, and if Geno Smith enjoys some positive regression with Ryan Grubb at the helm, then perhaps a rising tide lifts all ships. More red-zone trips and ripping off big runs with shaken-off defenders in his dust could yield a beautiful result.
Catch him if you KEN!!! pic.twitter.com/upoqW8ils0
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) November 12, 2023
Greg Dortch is a top-25 WR in PPR
Time to trot this fun section out one last time. Kyler Murray and Dortch were on fire to kick off 2022. In Weeks 1-3, when Rondale Moore was out, Dortch was the WR19 (15.3 PPG).
Then he was benched until popping up as the WR10 in Week 11 with Brown out. His snap count wouldn’t top 60% again until Weeks 16-18, when he was the WR25 (12.1 PPG).
I understand that Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride will command sizeable target shares, and Michael Wilson is currently healthy. I'm not asking for you to buy into that older top-20 glimpse, but top-25 will boil down to those touchdowns. Don't sleep on The Human Dortch!
"If he was 6' 3", he'd be a top 5 pick."
--Kyler Murray on #AZCardinals WR Greg Dortch
"I feel like Dortch is unguardable as far as 1-on-1, knowing where to be in the zones. He's got that nuance and savvy to him you want in a WR...it's not very common." pic.twitter.com/0QO8XKpyTN
— Paul Calvisi (@PaulCalvisi) June 6, 2024
Dylan Laube and Tre Tucker become waiver-wire heroes
This is not to say Zamir White is dust, as some might think. But I do not believe he will hold up throughout the season. Alexander Mattison, much like his predecessor Dalvin Cook, is dead to me from a fantasy perspective.
Laube has an incredibly versatile skill set and did everything he possibly could to stand out at a smaller collegiate program (University of New Hampshire). His UNH player page spells out how he led the nation with 209.5 yards per game of all-purpose yards last year, his second year in a row doing so.
He had 118 receptions over his last two collegiate seasons, with a school-record 295 receiving yards in one game at Central Michigan. Laube also averaged over 30 yards per kick return and 10 per punt return. He has every avenue possible to build momentum and earn additional work on a team that shouldn’t run away with games.
Meanwhile, Tucker was a third-round pick last year and turned 19 catches into 331 yards and two scores, averaging 7.7 yards per carry on 10 totes. Hunter Renfrow is no longer clogging the slot. Any issues Brock Bowers has with his foot out of the gate only help these others supply early information for us. Let’s see what Minshew Mania has in store for 2024.
Las Vegas Raiders 2023 Round 3 WR Tre Tucker has been balling out this preseason.
- 10 targets
- 228 air yards (only player 200+)
- 139 receiving yards (also 1st)Speed💨💨💨 pic.twitter.com/V0VhxbkUHq
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 21, 2024
Jonnu Smith is a top-10 TE
It’s quite simple, and folks who have read my offseason columns know the deal. Smith is incredibly overlooked as an athlete due to poor team environments in the past. He had an eight-touchdown season in 2020 for the Titans before taking a two-year deal with New England, who had no idea how to utilize his skills.
Fast forward to 2023, when he enjoyed career-high marks in targets (70), receptions (50), and yards (582) for a Falcons squad with poor coaching and quarterback play. We don’t need to harp on that anymore.
Now, he joins a creative Miami team that has assembled speed across the board with a proven concept for getting them into space. We don’t need 8-10 targets per game here as Smith getting five chances will do just fine.
Then it is up to the TD variance gods, but have fun catching him when the train leaves the station, especially on a squad that emphasizes pre-snap motion to get a running start. Just look at this freight train go!
Jonnu Smith goes 60 yards!
📺: #MINvsATL on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/d4RDZpcMkc pic.twitter.com/Jnm39mX0GI— NFL (@NFL) November 5, 2023
No defense can afford to shadow him in any fashion with the other playmakers in Miami. Enjoy! (Malik Washington is a must-stash flier in drafts as well, beyond the obvious Jaylen Wright play.)
Quick Bold Thoughts:
-Bo Nix is a top-14 QB, while Courtland Sutton is a top-18 WR.
-Darnell Mooney turns 69 receptions into 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns as a discount Jameson Williams.
-Taysom Hill has at least six top-five half-PPR TE weeks.
-2025 ADP has Terry McLaurin and Michael Pittman Jr. swapped, plus a little extra.
-Dawson Knox annoys Dalton Kincaid backers with 7 TDs.
-Will Shipley is this year’s Chase Brown with splash plays, except we don’t have to wait until Week 13 to see it!
-Antonio Gibson outscores Rhamondre Stevenson in PPR.
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