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Bold predictions for the 2022 fantasy baseball season by Nick Mariano. These are his most confident calls on players to trust or bust in fantasy.
We press on with the hit series where your favorite RotoBallers get a chance to flex their convictions. I know Opening Day is right around the corner but I couldn't let the year begin without firing this bad boy off. Yes, it is time to run wild with some 2022 Bold Predictions.
Bold doesn’t mean wildly outlandish with no basis in reality! This is still above “hot taek” status that Twitter empires are built upon. I promise there are at least decent reasons behind the thoughts to follow.
As always, if you disagree or have your own bold predictions to shout out then come by on Twitter to get it on record. Time is of the essence, so let's dive in.
Tyler O'Neill is a first-round pick in 2023 drafts
Typing 2023 doesn’t feel right, but I digress. TON can smash the ball with the best of them and finally has a steady job in his sails. He can also dash on the basepaths and is capable of carrying entire fantasy teams when hot. You know his Savant profile page is painted in red as a beast with exit velocities, barrels, and expected stats all in the top 10 percent of baseball.
I don’t care if he hits .250 and strikes out a TON, because a 40/20 campaign is well within reach. His sprint speed has held steady within 29.6-30 ft/sec, always ranking within the majors’ top 16 qualified runners. From Sept. 1 on, O’Neill bashed 13 home runs with seven doubles and a triple in 32 games. He also went a perfect 5-for-5 on the basepaths. That ceiling is worth chasing.
Eduardo Rodriguez is a top-20 SP
E-Rod goes from fickle Fenway to Comerica, yet he’s being drafted as an SP40-50ish type on Yahoo and most platforms. Derek Carty’s EVAnalytics park factors have Fenway as second-most friendly to hitters, sitting at 5% above average in wOBA and 4% above in home runs. Meanwhile, Comerica Park is 1% below the average for wOBA and 15% below in homers.
But Rodriguez is also being punished for last season’s 4.74 ERA/1.39 WHIP despite the 3.32 FIP, 3.43 xFIP, and 3.65 SIERA underneath it. He posted a career-best 27.4% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate but got punished by a lofty .363 BABIP (.311 career) and lowly 68.9% strand rate (74%). I expect his nasty five-pitch arsenal to play well with a much-improved Detroit roster.
Eduardo Rodriguez
5.0 IP
2 H
1 ER
8 K
1 BB
66.6 GB%Down to a 3.18 ERA on the spring with 19 K and 2 BB in 17 innings.
Elite
— BogaertsTo2B (0-162) (@PowerHourSam) April 2, 2022
Luke Voit Slugs 50 Home Runs
There are so many reasons to love Voit going into 2022, it’s crazy. Here I was, worrying he’d be stuck in a pseudo-platoon on the Yankees, and now he can be unleashed in Slam Diego. You know, the place where they embrace having fun and allow for facial hair if you’d like it. You may recall Voit was dynamite in the shortened 2020 season, clobbering 22 home runs in just 56 games. So maybe the 50 mark here is selling him short?
Aside from his moving from an uptight organization to a fun one, Voit will also be a huge beneficiary of Petco Park getting a humidor. Yes, all 30 parks will now sport one and that means Petco’s top-of-the-charts relative humidity metric (gathered thanks to Derek Carty and Eno Sarris) will come down to league average for the balls. Sarris noted the physicists who got close in predicting how far Coors and Chase Field HR rates would fall yield a possible increase of 13.2% in longballs at Petco. In short, power boys go boom. Just need the lower half to keep up with the power stroke!
#Padres roster review:
A balky knee barred Luke Voit from successfully defending his 2020 home run title with the #Yankees. With the DH now in the NL, the Padres hope he's able to supply power to the lineup. https://t.co/po3cNMfNYb pic.twitter.com/y0qocmNyRd
— Jeff Sanders (@sdutSanders) April 1, 2022
Joan Adon and Cade Cavalli combine for an ERA below 3.80, notch 300 K’s in MLB
Adon opens the year as Washington’s No. 5 while Cavalli begins in the minors, which is understandable given his short ramp-up from being drafted to now. Neither had flashy springs, combining to allow 20 ER in 17 ⅓ IP, but we did get a 21/4 K/BB between them! I try not to sweat runs surrendered for blossoming arms, focusing instead on how they’re attacking the zone.
As a 22-year-old, Adon started 2021 at High-A and quickly progressed through the system to make his MLB debut on Oct. 3. The rookie would suffer a .500 BABIP but still struck out nine Red Sox in 5 ⅓ IP. He’d had trouble with control at turns in his development, but his swinging-strike rate was always in the double-digits thanks to a sweet slider. He can toss in a changeup next to his 95-mph heat and I’m here for confidence to bump that command up.
And then there’s Cavalli, the 22nd overall pick in the 2020 draft, who manager Davey Martinez said needs to build up innings after his first pro year yielded 175 strikeouts in 123 ⅓ IP. That tally led the minors! If he can rein in his fastball location then that four-pitch arsenal can really eat hitters up. But if he can’t then you get the 11-run catastrophe seen against the Cardinals on March 30. Bumps occur, that’s fine, I’m here for the ceiling and a strong first month will have Washington throwing in the towel on Anibal Sanchez/Erick Fedde. Get ready.
Reiver Sanmartin punishes you all for your insolence, is a top-50 SP
I’ll tell you all to cry me a Reiver when you realize you missed out on an electrifying southpaw in Cincinnati not named Nick Lodolo. Sanmartin turns 26 on April 15 but has a strong history of control and home-run suppression in the minors, going back to his days in rookie ball with Texas. He went to the Yankees and then came to Cincy in the Sonny Gray trade, didn’t dazzle in ‘19 following that deal, and then missed 2020 thanks to no minor-league action.
But 2021 saw him rightfully do well as a 25-year-old at Double- and Triple-A before making a pair of starts against the Pirates in September. The lefty held PIT to one run in each contest, posting an 11/2 K/BB in 11 ⅔ IP with no homers allowed. Across nearly 500 innings of pro ball, Sanmartin has only given up 24 round-trippers (~0.4 HR/9). If anything will test that, it’s GABP, but he’s also free in drafts so let’s ride.
Quick Hitters
- Alex Cobb stays healthy, is a top-5 NL Cy Young arm.
- Seiya Suzuki is an incredible buy-low in late April, hitting 32 HRs from May 1 on.
- Kyle Isbel forces KC’s hand, goes 15/20.
- Jeremy Pena wins AL Rookie of the Year in the face of a stacked field
- Jo Adell breaks out, slugging 34 homers with 13 steals and a K rate below 20%.
(I sold a 1/1 rookie card of his recently, which greatly increases his odds of going off).
That wraps up my preseason banter. It's been a pleasure and I look forward to entering my seventh year of MLB here at RotoBaller with some big swings. Love you all for the support and deeply appreciate the opportunity to connect over our little game. Cheers, everyone!
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