Nick Mariano's "My Guys" For The 2024 Fantasy Football Season

The preseason has started, and fantasy football drafts are firing on all cylinders. Perhaps you've been with me in the best ball streets, but now big seasonal home leagues are revving up. It is time to finalize your prep and get those draft boards ready for action. Fantasy managers often identify which players to target and avoid at their current ADP, but we'll crank it up a notch.

This article will highlight "My Guys," who I keep queueing up and building around. These are players I'm willing to reach for and lock onto. I believe they'll exceed expectations and provide fantasy managers with league-winning upside. Who is joining me?

Avid RotoBaller readers won't be caught off-guard by many of these, but it's fun and helpful to get my faves all placed into one piece. We've got guys going in early rounds as well as the final ones, covering all positions for you, the faithful reader. Let's get to it!

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Kyler Murray, QB - Arizona Cardinals

Murray, another year removed from his torn ACL, is circled in several pretty colors on my draft boards. He was tied as the QB9 from Weeks 10-18 last week after making his return from the significant knee injury and came out firing in the second half. That’s what a knocking-off-the-cobwebs Murray did!

And now his ADP sits as the QB10? This man gets an offseason to vibe with Trey McBride, and they draft Marvin Harrison Jr. for him, and we’re still getting him this low? This is 2024 not-rusty Murray with improved weapons at the 2023 rusty price. He (unsurprisingly) averaged a career-low 5.5 rush attempts per game and still had a 44-244-3 rushing line in eight games.

Pacing for over 500 yards and six TDs while getting comfortable scrambling again is cushy. Safeties can’t cheat down with MHJ on the perimeter and McBride a threat to bust up the seam. Kyler's rushing expectations should be higher, as should the 3.7% passing TD rate that ranked 23rd with the next generation of Cardinal pass-catchers. We’ll get to another one in a bit!

Bijan Robinson, RB - Atlanta Falcons

You have to let me live with a first-round pick! Robinson battled with Arthur Smith’s shenanigans as a rookie but illustrated the Christian McCaffrey-style versatility on the ground and in the air. And now we’ve got new head coach Raheem Morris saying Robinson is going to be their CMC. Mix in that Atlanta draws a beautiful fantasy playoff schedule against the Raiders, Giants, and Commanders in Weeks 15-17, and you’ve got a stew going.

#Falcons OC Zac Robinson on Bijan Robinson being used like CMC:

“Bijan’s such a talented player. He’s gonna play running back, first and foremost — and then any way we can find creative ways to get him the ball like the Niners do with Christian McCaffrey is exactly right.” pic.twitter.com/6x01Gwp3Cv

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) June 5, 2024

I would also be content with Breece Hall as my hero RB. If I can’t land these guys in Round 1, then I’m hoping for A.J. Brown and De'Von Achane in Round 2.

Jaylen Warren, RB - Pittsburgh Steelers

Warren and Najee Harris are going into another season as Pittsburgh’s one-two backfield punch, with Warren’s versatility going against Harris being the bigger back.  Warren is eight months younger than Harris but only has about 300 career touches to nearly 1,000 for Harris, who has a career 3.9 yards per carry and 6.0 yards per catch after three years.

Warren had a nifty 4.9 YPC as a rookie in 2022, but many assumed that would go down with more volume. Nope! He doubled his attempts in ‘23 alongside a 5.3 YPC and averages 6.6 yards per catch, edging Harris’ catch rate by six percentage points. He’ll need to improve his pass blocking to leap (PFF PBLK Grade: 25.1!), but he was a top-10 runner with an 84.4 PFF Grade and a top-10 receiving RB (72.2) as well.

Whether the Steelers choose to go with Russell Wilson or Justin Fields, the running backs should get plenty of work with Arthur Smith as offensive coordinator. We’re sweating the whole Brandon Aiyuk trade drama for George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth, but Warren (and Harris) are insulated from this.

Update: Warren's hamstring injury doesn't frighten me, though soft-tissue injuries are certainly not ideal. The short-term dip in his ADP bakes in the risk and doesn't change the outlook.

Mike Tomlin on Jaylen Warren: "He is out probably out for this week, but not anything that's a long-term concern."

— Brooke Pryor (@bepryor) August 20, 2024

Ray Davis, RB - Buffalo Bills

We saw Buffalo ride an age-33 Latavius Murray for 79 carries and four touchdowns as a short-yardage, goal-line specialist while James Cook largely watched the action (perhaps after a fumble?). That dynamic was accompanied by Josh Allen being a tank with 15 rushing touchdowns.

The Bills can’t envision Allen jamming into heavy-set goal-line defenses as a long-term solution so they drafted Davis, who just thumped 14 touchdowns with 1,129 yards on 199 carries for Kentucky last year. Consider that Allen had never rushed for double-digit scores before so some TD% regression mixed with Murray’s ceded snaps present an opportunity for Davis to pop.

Braelon Allen, RB - New York Jets

If you have room for handcuffs then Allen is the one for me. His preseason showing went well with 54 yards on nine carries as the clear No. 2 over Israel Abanikanda and the rest behind Breece Hall. The Jets should provide ample positive gamescripts with Aaron Rodgers being a noted protector of the football and that vaunted defense. If something happens to Hall at any point then Allen is a league-winning, empty-the-wallet free-agent pickup.

Braelon Allen had the #1 explosive run rate of any RB so far this preseason

EVERY CARRY went for at least 5 yards except when he was hit behind the line of scrimmage

in total:

54 rushing yards
9.0 YPC
+0.30 EPA/rushpic.twitter.com/UBcQfyWeTe

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) August 11, 2024

Rashid Shaheed, WR - New Orleans Saints

Shaheed has very little competition as the No. 2 WR behind Chris Olave. The Saints are in trouble as an organization and can’t afford to build out depth thanks to salary cap issues. Alvin Kamara is aging, Derek Carr is inconsistent at best, Juwan Johnson is returning after offseason foot surgery, and even Olave has battled back tightness during training camp.

Shaheed turned 46 catches into 719 yards and five scores in 15 games. PFF charted Shaheed with 21 deep (20+ yard) targets in ‘23, which led to 12 catches for 474 yards and all five of those TDs. The resulting 99.9 Deep Grade is beautiful. He caught 4-of-5 contested deep targets as well. Whether they unlock more versatility in the short/intermediate game for Shaheed will be the difference between a good and great season here.

Update: Less enthused about Shaheed's toe/foot injury but I'm still excited about his prospects for 2024 assuming they allow him to get up to full health. If you want to pivot away here that's fine -- read on for two other WRs!

Dennis Allen said toe OR foot with Rashid Shaheed by the way. He wasn’t sure. That’s why it was written like that.

— Katherine Terrell (@Kat_Terrell) August 16, 2024

Jalen McMillan, WR - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs tried Trey Palmer as a viable No. 3 WR behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin,  but he posted just one week with more than nine PPR points. Deven Thompkins mostly contributed on special teams. Cade Otton is fine but doesn’t command a hefty target share. Rachaad White was very involved in the passing game, but there’s room for a third WR to emerge here.

And that’s where McMillan enters the picture. Tampa selected the 6-foot-1 wideout with the 92nd overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft after a down season at Washington, where he was largely affected by a Grade 2 MCL sprain in his left knee. Even so, he put up a 45-559-5 receiving line after a 79-1098-9 line as a redshirt sophomore.

That’s the man who Tampa envisions earning a perimeter role alongside Evans as Godwin moves back into the slot. Now, McMillan was largely a slot man in his last two years at Washington but lined up outside over 80% of the time in 2021.

While it might be an uphill climb to get standalone value as the No. 3 WR on this team, his versatility means he could explode if anything happens to Evans OR Godwin. We’ll see how he operates with an improved Baker Mayfield, who is coming off of his first career 4,000-yard season and career bests in completion rate (64.3%) and touchdowns (28).

Jalen McMillan lined up out wide on 7 of his 10 snaps on Sunday — good news for his potential to start early in three-WR sets with Chris Godwin expected to be back in a full-time slot role this season.

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) August 12, 2024

Greg Dortch, WR - Arizona Cardinals

Dortch was invisible on the bench for much of the 2023 season, but injuries to Michael Wilson (shoulder) and Marquise Brown (heel) led to snap counts above 75% down the stretch after Kyler Murray returned from his ACL injury. Dortch would eclipse 11 PPR points in four games between Weeks 11-17, checking in as the PPR WR45 within that window.

Murray and Dortch had also lit it up early in 2022. In Weeks 1-3, when Rondale Moore was out, Dortch was the WR19 (15.3 PPG). Then he was benched until popping up as the WR10 in Week 11 with Brown out. His snap count wouldn’t top 60% again until Weeks 16-18, when he was the WR25 (12.1 PPG).

Dortch has performed well when given starting reps and has a leg up on the slot role entering this season. We’ve seen him perform well in the windows when a clear avenue to reps is there. Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride will demand volume but the cost to acquire Dortch in drafts is nil, so the risk-reward ratio is tantalizing.

Jonnu Smith, TE - Miami Dolphins

Just as we discussed Burton’s role in Cincinnati being undervalued due to past performances in the role, so too is Smith’s potential as Miami’s receiving TE. This is a player who managed to produce highlights in 2023 despite being buried on an Arthur Smith offense in a TE room with Kyle Pitts. The one that sticks out is a 60-yard touchdown that was entirely Smith’s afterburners taking a bubble screen to the house.

Jonnu Smith reached a top speed of 21.15 mph on his 60-yard touchdown, the 3rd-fastest speed by a tight end as a ball carrier in the NGS era (since 2016).

Smith is the only TE to reach 20+ mph as a ball carrier since the start of last season.#MINvsATL | #DirtyBirds pic.twitter.com/PO2nRfir4b

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 5, 2023

This is a guy who can outrun defensive backs in pursuit and who now joins a Mike McDaniel offense that knows how to scheme players into space. We’ve seen the flashes as recently as last year, but there’s a buying opportunity here. Not only did Arthur Smith suppress all ceilings, but the Dolphins didn’t have a notable TE last season.

Smith enters an exciting Miami offense, having just posted career-high marks in catches (50), targets (70), and yards (582) on a run-oriented Atlanta offense. He boasted a 71.4% catch rate despite playing with Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke, topping 60 yards in four games.

Perhaps those in PPR leagues won’t love the spot with Miami being so hyperefficient at chasing big plays rather than cobbling together via volume. But we’ve seen enough out of Smith to see potential and enough out of McDaniel’s Dolphins to respect their ability to match a player to their scheme. There’s also smoke around an Odell Beckham Jr. injury, which would throw the No. 3 WR role into further murkiness next to Smith.

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