RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey is one of my favorite sports to watch and play from a DFS perspective and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and Fanduel for Monday, September 21st, 2020 at 8:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 9/21
- Dallas Stars (+123) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-143)
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
| Team | Rank GA | Rank SA | Rank GF | Rank SF | Total |
| Tampa Bay | 11 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 7.25 |
| Dallas | 17 | 19 | 5 | 10 | 10.75 |
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
Power Play Matrix
| Matchup | PP% | Opp PK % |
| Dallas Stars | 5 | 8 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 13 | 9 |
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank. The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents to ensure we get the correct data for each slate! The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
NHL DFS Core Plays- Stanley Cup Finals Showdown Edition
Captain Picks
- Nikita Kucherov ($16,500 DK/ $15,500 FD) - Kuch has the highest upside of any skater on the slate. While he carries the highest salary on the slate, he is worth spending up for since he also provides the best floor. Kuch is coming off a five-shot performance in game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals and the Lightning will need his offensive firepower to come through if they want to win Game 2. On the season, Kucherov has notched three assists in three games played against Dallas while taking 13 total shots so he has found success against them in limited action.
- Tyler Seguin ($12,900 DK/ $ FD) - Seguin has been very quiet offensively over the last 10 games played as he has only produced one point during that stretch. He is taking 2.5 shots per game and seeing plenty of ice-time but is just not able to find the net. As the cold streak goes on, people will hop off of the Seguin bandwagon which means lower ownership could be seen over the next few games. The Lightning looks like they matched the top Dallas line with their third line which has been one of the better defensive lines on the team (posted a 56% corsi and limiting opponents to just 20 scoring chances per 60 minutes of ice time). Seguin stands to be more of a tournament play as of right now but once they gain home-ice advantage, the line matching could work in his favor.
- Anton Khudobin ($15,300 DK/ $) - The Stars have gone 3-0 against Tampa so far this year so with knowing this, it might be best to consider looking at Khudobin. On the season, the Lightning are scoring on average two goals per game and was only able to muster up one goal in the opening game of the series. Khudobin has been on quite a hot streak from a fantasy scoring perspective as he has produced 20+ DK points in six of his last seven games played.
Value Picks
- Alexander Radulov ($7,600 DK/ $ FD) - Radulov has found success against the Lightning as he has notched three points in three games played against them this year (1 goal, 2 assists). He is in a little bit of a point streak as he has notched a point in each of his last four games played. While his shot volume is a tad bit worrisome, he has shown that he can find ways of scoring with his linemates.
- Barclay Goodrow ($4,600 DK/ $ FD) - The Lightning's third line was the lone Tampa Bay line that was able to score a goal in the opening game of the series. Goodrow had an assist which actually makes it back to back games where he has produced a point. While he doesn't offer a high shot volume, he isn't afraid to block shots which are a nice way to rack up some peripheral stats. Goodrow is best used in tournament formats just because of the low floor that he has when it comes to fantasy scoring.
- Joel Kiviranta ($5,200 DK/ $ FD) - Kiviranta is down in the Stars bottom six for forwards which means he won't see much ice-time but he has truly made the most of his opportunity throughout the playoffs. In nine postseason games, Kiviranta has produced six points and is averaging two shots per game. He could provide some salary relief for your dfs lineups if you're looking to spend up at the captain spot.
Stacks
- DAL1- Benn, Seguin, Radulov
- TB1- Palat, Point, Kucherov
- TB3- Goodrow, Gourde, Coleman
- TB2- Janmark, Pavelski, Gurianov
Player Pool
C- Seguin, Point, Pavelski, Gourde
W- Kucherov, Radulov, Benn, Coleman, Palat, Gurianov, Kiviranta, Janmark
D- Heiskanen, Hedman, Sergachev, Klingberg, Lindell, Shattenkirk
G- Khudobin
