RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey is one of my favorite sports to watch and play from a DFS perspective and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and Fanduel for Thursday, September 10th, 2020 at 8:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 9/10
- Vegas Golden Knights (-155) vs. Dallas Stars (+141)
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
| Team | Rank GA | Rank SA | Rank GF | Rank SF | Total |
| Vegas | 12 | 24 | 24 | 7 | 12.75 |
| Dallas | 17 | 19 | 5 | 10 | 16.75 |
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
Power Play Matrix
| Matchup | PP% | Opp PK % |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 11 | 8 |
| Dallas Stars | 5 | 5 |
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank. The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents to ensure we get the correct data for each slate! The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
NHL DFS Core Plays- Showdown Edition
Captain Picks
- Robin Lehner ($16,500 DK) - Lehner was sharp in game 2 of the series against Dallas as he recorded a 24 save shutout and generated a 26.8 DK point performance. He has now posted back-to-back shutouts in his last two games played and if he draws the start, he could carry his recent form into game 3. Lehner has gone 2-0 against Dallas throughout the season and in those two starts only allowed three total goals while averaging 19.6 DK points per game. Dallas has only been able to muster up one goal scored in the first two games so the Golden Knights are really grinding it out on the defensive end which makes Lehner (or Fleury) a great option for the captain spot.
- Max Pacioretty ($15,300 DK/ $15,500 FD ) - The top offensive choice for Vegas is always in consideration, especially on a showdown slate. Pacioretty has found success against the Stars this year as he has recorded four points in four games played against Dallas this season. He has been active on the offensive end in the early portion of this series as he is averaging four shots on goal in the first two games played. If he can keep up the volume shooting and generate a few points, Pacioretty could easily be one of the highest-scoring players in this game.
- Anton Khudobin ($15,900 DK) - If you are wanting a lower owned play on this slate, look no further than Khudobin for the Stars. Khudobin has done really well in the net for the Stars throughout the postseason as he has filled in for Ben Bishop. He has gone 9-6 and carries a .912 save percentage which shows the good form he has been in throughout the playoffs. With Vegas being the favorite, it should lower the ownership on Kudobin for tournaments and factoring how low scoring this series has been so far, it wouldn't surprise me if Khudbin and Dallas were able to squeak out a win while they have the home-ice advantage.
Value Picks
- Paul Stastny ($5,400 DK/ $9,000 FD) - It looks like the Knights switched up their lines a bit last game and Stastny was bumped down to the third line but was joined by their top point-getter in Pacioretty. Stastny definitely gets a bump with skating alongside a winger like that and he still seems valuable minutes on their 2nd team power-play unit. While he doesn't offer the most upside in the world, he is a great stacking piece especially at the price point he is at,
- Nicolas Roy ($3,000 DK/ $7,000 FD) - Another beneficiary of Pacioretty getting bumped down to the third line for Vegas is Nicolas Roy. While the 3rd line for Vegas was solid last series, there is no denying that Roy gets a boost skating with Stastny and Pacioretty over Tuch and Cousins. As a line, they posted a 56.25 corsi and generated eight scoring chances throughout game 2. Roy was able to register a shot on goal and record a point so I wouldn't be surprised if this third line for Vegas is able to generate good puck possession numbers and scoring chances again if they are skating together.
- John Klingberg ($6,400 DK/ $9,500 FD) - One of the better offensive defensemen in the league is John Klingberg. Klingberg sees plenty of ice time as he skates with both the top line and the top power-play line for the Stars. While the matchup against Vegas is tough, he has notched a goal already in this series, and at just $6,400, he is great value when considering the offensive upside and ice time.
Stacks
- VGK1- Marchessault, Karlsson, Smith
- DAL2- Janmark, Pavelski, Radulov
- VGK3- Pacioretty, Stastny, Roy
Player Pool
C- Karlsson, Pavelski, Stastny
W- Pacioretty, Stone, Radulov, Benn, Smith, Roy, Janmark, Kiviranta
D- Theodore, Heiskanen, Klingberg, McNabb
G- Lehner, Khudobin
