RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey is one of my favorite sports to watch and play from a DFS perspective and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings for Monday, August 31st, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 8/31
- Boston Bruins (+100) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-120)
- Dallas Stars () vs. Colorado Avalanche ()
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
| Team | Rank GA | Rank SA | Rank GF | Rank SF | Total |
| Colorado | 1 | 22 | 17 | 4 | 9.5 |
| Tampa Bay | 11 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| Boston | 14 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 9.75 |
| Dallas | 17 | 19 | 5 | 10 | 14.25 |
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
| Matchup | PP% | Opp PK % |
| Boston | 7 | 10 |
| Tampa Bay | 10 | 13 |
| Dallas | 9 | 7 |
| Colorado | 4 | 16 |
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank. The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents to ensure we get the correct data for each slate! The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
NHL DFS Core Four
The Core 4 picks are to help you construct your cash game lineups while also giving you plays that you can use and build around in GPPs. Stacking is critical in NHL DFS so you might want to pair these suggestions with a linemate or two, especially when building your tournament lineups.
1) DFS Center: Nathan MacKinnon ($8,500 DK/ $8,700 FD)
For the first time since the postseason began, MacKinnon was held limited to single-digit DK points in their loss to the Stars. He was limited to just two shots on goal but he was able to record an assist which helped make up for the lack of offensive involvement. The Avs are in a must-win scenario which means Mackinnon and the rest of his linemates will need to step up and have a big game if they want to keep their playoff dreams alive. MacKinnon will once again see high ownership in cash games but could see a drop in tournaments due to the other viable options at the center position.
Other Top Center Plays:
- Brayden Point ($5,700 DK/ $7,900 FD)
- Nazem Kadri ($5,3000 DK/ $6,000 FD)
2) DFS Winger: Nikita Kucherov ($7,400 DK/ $8,300 FD)
Kucherov has been a major problem for the Bruins this year. In nine games this season, Kuch has produced 11 total points while averaging over three shots on goal per game. In the postseason series against Boston, he has scored double-digit DK points in every game while also taking over three shots per game as well. Kucherov is viable in all formats and will be a popular target on this slate.
Other Top Winger Plays:
- Mikko Rantanen ($6,900 DK/ $7,700 FD)
- Jamie Benn ($5,300 DK/ $7,700 FD)
3) DFS Defenseman: Victor Hedman ($5,600 DK / $6,700 FD)
Another Lightning player that has really stepped it up this series has been Victor Hedman. He has scored four points in four games and has recorded over 20+ DK points in three of his last four games played. What has been really impressive is how active he has been on the offensive end. He has taken 17 shots on goal throughout this series and when a streaky shooter like Hedman gets going, he is hard to stop. When factoring in that he has 11 blocked shots in the series as well, Hedman makes for a great tournament target on this slate.
Other Defenseman Plays:
- Miro Heiskanen ($5,400 DK/ $5,800 FD)
- Cale Makar ($5,800 DK/ $5,600 FD)
4) DFS Goalie: Andrei Vasilevskiy ($8,000 DK/ $8,500 FD)
Vasilevskiy has played pretty well throughout the series against Boston so far. He is allowing two goals per game which is solid when taking into account that Boston has one of the best scoring lines in all of hockey in Marchand, Bergeron, and Pastrnak. He is making 27.5 saves per game which is a good amount of volume from a fantasy goalie perspective. With how well Tampa has been playing defensively and the shot volume that Vasilevskiy is seeing, it is hard to pass him up in all formats.
DFS Value Plays
DFS Value Plays: Center
- Joe Pavelski ($4,700 DK/ $5,600 FD)
- David Krejci ($4,300 DK/ $6,400 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Wing
- Denis Gurianov ($4,400 DK/ $5,200 FD)
- Blake Coleman ($4,300 DK/ $3,800 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Defensemen
- Mikhail Sergachev ($3,800 DK/ $4,700 FD)
- Charlie McAvoy ($4,300 DK/ $4,300 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Goalie
- Anton Khudobin ($7,400 DK/ $7,500 FD)
Top Team and Line DFS Stacks
We are back to seeing two-game slates with some really high-powered offenses facing off tonight. Tampa Bay is leading the series 3-1 and is looking to end the series with the home-ice advantage tonight. The top line for Tampa has performed really well throughout the postseason as they have generated a 64.53 corsi and 33 scoring chances per 60 minutes of ice-time in all games played while they were considered to be the home team. In the first two games of the series, the Point line had above an 80 corsi and generated 17 scoring chances. They looked to be matched with the top two lines for Boston which only benefited the Lightning. Boston will throw everything they have at the Lightning but with the line matching advantage, it is hard to ignore the numbers that the top line for the Lightning produced in their previous games this series.
The nightcap game on the slate features the Avs and Stars. This series has not disappointed from an offensive standpoint and Dallas has really shocked everyone by keeping up and outscoring a high powered offense like Colorado. With the Avs getting home-ice advantage for this game, the Avs top line will be put in a great spot to succeed. In the first two games of the series, they were matched up against the Stars fourth line and dominated the puck possession battle while generating 19 scoring chances in that two-game span. The Avs second line saw a good dose of the top two Stars lines and the Pavelski line looked to really stand out in that matchup. This once again is a great game to target from a game stack option and with it being a limited slate, mini stacks from this game are definitely an option.
Top Stacks (In order):
- COL1- Landeskog, MacKinnon, Rantanen
- TB1- Palat, Point, Kucherov
- DAL1- Benn, Seguin, Radulov
- BOS1- Marchand, Bergeron, Pastrnak
Value Stacks:
- DAL2- Janmark, Pavelski, Gurianov
- COL2- Burakovsky, Kadri, Nichushkin
- TB3- Goodrow, Gourde, Coleman
- BOS2- Debrusk, Krejci, Kase
