RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey is one of my favorite sports to watch and play from a DFS perspective and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings for Thursday, August 27th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 8/27
- Philadelphia Flyers (-112) vs. New York Islanders (-104)
- Vegas Golden Knights (-186) vs. Vancouver Canucks (+160)
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
| Team | Rank GA | Rank SA | Rank GF | Rank SF | Total |
| Vegas | 12 | 24 | 24 | 7 | 19.5 |
| NY Islanders | 4 | 23 | 22 | 13 | 14.5 |
| Vancouver | 9 | 11 | 20 | 22 | 12.75 |
| Philadelphia | 3 | 21 | 13 | 18 | 14.75 |
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
| Matchup | PP% | Opp PK % |
| Philadelphia | 19 | 8 |
| New York | 10 | 6 |
| Vegas | 7 | 15 |
| Vancouver | 6 | 7 |
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank. The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents to ensure we get the correct data for each slate!
NHL DFS Core Four
The Core 4 picks are to help you construct your cash game lineups while also giving you plays that you can use and build around in GPPs. Stacking is critical in NHL DFS so you might want to pair these suggestions with a linemate or two, especially when building your tournament lineups.
1) DFS Center: William Karlsson ($5,900 DK/ $5,700 FD)
The center position is a tad tough today as all of the centers could be viable but they also offer somewhat low floors at times. Karlsson is arguably the safest choice since he will be skating on the best line of the night. He has recorded three points in his last four games played and has reached double-digit DK points in two of those contests.
Other Top Center Plays:
- Mathew Barzal ($6,900 DK/ $6,500 FD)
- Kevin Hayes ($5,400 DK/ $5,300 FD)
2) DFS Winger: Max Pacioretty ($7,000 DK/ $7,800 FD)
This is one of the easier decisions on the slate with how well Pacioretty has been playing. He has continued his hot streak of recording a point in three straight games and has now taken 20 shots over his last four games played. Even though he is the highest priced winger on the slate, he offers upside that is hard to match so he is as close to a lock button as there is on this slate.
Other Top Winger Plays:
- Tyler Toffoli ($5,500 DK/ $5,600 FD)
- Anders Lee ($6,200 DK/ $6,700 FD)
3) DFS Defenseman: Alexander Edler ($5,400 DK / $4,500 FD)
We have been on Edler the past few Vancouver slates and he has been as active as can be so there is no reason to stop rolling the dice on him now. He has now had three straight double-digit DK performances and is averaging over eight peripheral stats per game over that stretch which is ideal for your cash game lineups.
Other Defenseman Plays:
- Ryan Pulock ($5,700 DK/ $5,200 FD)
- Shea Theodore ($6,200 DK/ $6,400 FD)
4) DFS Goalie: Robin Lehner ($8,000 DK/ $8,200 FD)
You will need to check before roster lock but we will trust the Vegas odds and go with the largest favorite on the slate which is Vegas. Lehner was roughed up in his previous start as he allowed four goals on 26 shots which was the complete opposite performance that he had during the first game of this series. Fleury could be given a chance to start this game and the Golden Knights will need a big performance from whoever tends the net since they could be down 2-1 if they have another poor outing tonight.
Value Plays
DFS Value Plays: Center
- J.G. Pageau ($4,900 DK/ $4,800 FD)
- Paul Stastny ($4,400 DK/ $4,600 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Wing
- Tanner Pearson ($4,500 DK/ $4,400 FD)
- Alex Tuch ($4,200 DK/ $4,500 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Defensemen
- Alec Martinez ($4,200 DK/ $3,800 FD)
- Troy Stetcher ($3,200 DK/ $3,800 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Goalie
- Semyon Varlamov/ Thomas Greiss
Top Team and Line DFS Stacks
With this being a two-gamer, it makes it a tad tougher from a roster construction standpoint in tournaments. We can anticipate Vegas being the high-owned team with the Flyers and Islanders being somewhat split. Vancouver will be the least owned team based on the Vegas odds so if you are in a large tournament, getting some shares of Vancouver would not be a bad idea especially if they go off and score five goals as they did in their previous game.
The Flyers finally woke up from their offensive slump and was able to squeak out a 4-3 victory but the Islanders showed grit and determination as they fought back from a 3-0 deficit to force overtime. The Islanders' best line throughout the first two games has been their second line as they have posted positive corsi numbers in both games while leading the team with 16 total scoring chances. Since Philly had the line matching advantage, the Islanders should control the matchups which should give them the edge from a matchup standpoint.
From the game yesterday, Philly had their Hayes line match with the Barzal line of the Islanders while the Couturier line of Philly matched up with the Nelson line for New York. This looks as if it could be swapped for this game which means the top line of New York could be in a better spot from a line stacking standpoint. The Flyers top line has done a great job of controlling the puck but is allowing 15.2 high danger chances per 60 minutes of ice time so far in their series against the Islanders. This bodes well for Barzal and company as they have a rate of 17 high-danger opportunities per 60 minutes of ice time against the Flyers in the playoffs.
Vegas was really disappointing in game 2 of their series with the Canucks and with Vancouver gaining the line matching advantage, Vegas needs to have a strong performance to make up the fact that they lost a game where they were considered to be the home team. The top line for Vegas was extremely dominant as they posted a 72 corsi and generated 13 scoring chances in game 2 but the main difference between the first and second game was how Vancouver mixed their lines up and threw Pettersson down on the second line with Toffoli and Pearson. This group was matched with the Stastny line and shut them down which really hindered the depth of the Golden Knights. Stastny and company were only able to generate a 41 corsi and three scoring chances while they ended up allowing six scoring chances and four high-danger opportunities.
With Vancouver being the home team, it wouldn't surprise us to see them flip the line matching and have the Pettersson line stay with the Karlsson line and have the Horvat line match with the Statsny line. With that being said, the Stastny line looks to be a much better play than they were in the first two games but still doesn't carry as much upside as the Karlssson line does. From Vancouver, the Pettersson line deserves some looks just based on how well they were able to generate chances while the Horvat line gets an easier overall matchup against the Stastny line. If you are looking to take down a big field tournament, Vancouver could be the team that helps you win it all based on lower ownership.
Top Stacks:
- VGK1- Pacioretty, Karlsson, Stone
- VGK2- Marchessault, Stastny, Smith
- NYI1- Lee, Barzal, Eberle
- NYI2- Beauvillier, Nelson, Bailey
- VAN1- Miller-Horvat- Boeser
- VAN2- Pearson, Pettersson, Toffoli
Value Stacks:
- VGK3- Cousins, Roy, Tuch
- PHI2- Farabee, Hayes, Konecny
