RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey is one of my favorite sports to watch and play from a DFS perspective and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings for Monday, August 24th, 2020 at 8:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 8/24
- New York Islanders (+104) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (-117)
- Dallas Stars (+143) vs. Colorado Avalanche (-167)
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
| Team | Rank GA | Rank SA | Rank GF | Rank SF | Total |
| NY Islanders | 4 | 23 | 22 | 13 | 14.5 |
| Colorado | 1 | 22 | 17 | 4 | 9.5 |
| Philadelphia | 3 | 21 | 13 | 18 | 14.75 |
| Dallas | 17 | 19 | 5 | 10 | 14.25 |
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
| Matchup | PP% | Opp PK % |
| New York | 10 | 6 |
| Philadelphia | 19 | 8 |
| Dallas | 7 | 14 |
| Colorado | 6 | 7 |
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank. The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents to ensure we get the correct data for each slate!
NHL DFS Core Four
The Core 4 picks are to help you construct your cash game lineups while also giving you plays that you can use and build around in GPPs. Stacking is critical in NHL DFS so you might want to pair these suggestions with a linemate or two, especially when building your tournament lineups.
1) DFS Center: Nathan MacKinnon ($8,500 DK/ $8,800 FD)
While the Stars have had the AValanche's number all season long, MacKinnon is still a top fantasy producer on this slate. In the opening game against Dallas, he generated three points as he scored two goals on six shots while also recording an assist. From a personal standpoint, he has done well against Dallas as he has recorded seven points in six total games played this year while averaging 22 DK points per game against the Stars. Even if you do decide to roll with a Stars stack, you could always run it back with a MacKinnon share just because of how well he has and is currently playing.
Other Top Center Plays:
- Mathew Barzal ($6,700 DK/ $6,400 FD)
- Nazem Kadri ($5,800 DK/ $6,100 FD)
2) DFS Winger: Mikko Rantanen ($7,200 DK/ $7,800 FD)
Another Avs player that has been performing well has been Mikko Rantanen. He has had four straight games where he has hit the double-digit mark on DK while racking up 15 total shots in that four-game span. In addition, he has generated six total points in his four most recent games played with three of those points coming on the powerplay. While it might be tough to get both him and MacKinnon into your lines, he would be a great piece to add if you are unable to squeeze MacKinnon in.
Other Top Winger Plays:
- Alexander Radulov ($5,500 DK/ $5,600 FD)
- Anders Lee ($6,000 DK/ $6,800 FD)
3) DFS Defenseman: John Klingberg ($5,400 DK / $6,200 FD)
The Stars are really benefiting from the offensive output of Klingberg over the past several games. He has had five points over his last four games played and is seeing over 22 minutes of ice-time per game. Klingberg has found really good success against the Avalanche as he has had five points in five games played against Dallas with three of those points coming on the powerplay.
Other Defenseman Plays:
- Ryan Pulock ($5,600 DK/ $5,100 FD)
- Ivan provorov ($5,200 DK/ $4,900 FD)
4) DFS Goalie: Semyon Varlamov ($7,800 DK/ $8,300 FD)
Even though the Flyers are the favorite in this series, the Islanders are riding a nice wave of momentum as they dominated the Washington Capitals in five games. Varlamov has won five out of his last six games and has generated double-digit DK performances over that same time span but the one interesting thing to note is that the three times that the Flyers and Islanders faced in the regular season, they generated 23 total goals scored with the Islanders sweeping the Flyers.
Value Plays
DFS Value Plays: Center
- Radek Faksa ($3,500 DK/ $3,300 FD)
- J.G. Pageau ($4,700 DK/ $4,600 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Wing
- Joonas Donskoi ($3,600 DK/ $3,800 FD)
- Roope Hintz ($3,700 DK/ $4,500 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Defensemen
- Matt Niskanen ($4,000 DK/ $4,100 FD)
- Samuel Girard ($3,200 DK/ $4,600 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Goalie
- Anton Khudobin ($7,400 DK/ $7,500 FD)
Top Team and Line DFS Stacks
This slate sets up to be an interesting one for several reasons. Both underdogs dominated the regular-season matchups against their opponents with the Islanders taking all three games against the Flyers while the Stars took five our of six against Colorado. In the Philly and New York series, all three games hit the over which means that both teams are able to generate chances and opportunities against one another. The top two lines for the Islanders have been playing great throughout the postseason and have done a great job limiting opponents on the offensive end which is where the Flyers have been struggling. If the Islanders are able to generate offensive production as they did against the Capitals, they should be able to take care of business against the Flyers.
The Stars have been able to suppress the offensive attack of the Avalanche throughout the regular season and early portions of the postseason. The Stars play a tough defensive style and while the top line for the Avs has been able to generate scoring chances and even convert those chances into points, the Avs have struggled to generate scoring chances throughout the rest of their lineup. Dallas is very deep from a depth standpoint and their offensive production is coming from their top two lines as they both post strong corsi numbers at even strength and average over 30+ scoring chances per 60 minutes of ice-time.
Stacks:
- COL 1- Rantanen, MacKinnon, Landeskog
- DAL1- Benn, Seguin, Radulov
- NYI 1- Lee, Barzal, Eberle
- NYI 2- Bailey, Nelson, Beauvillier
- DAL 2- Janmark, Pavelski, Gurianov
- COL 2- Burakovsky, Kadri, Donskoi
