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RotoBaller's NHL Premium Picks and Analysis for the DFS slate on FanDuel and DraftKings on November 18, 2023.
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Tonight’s slate features many top offenses, but few of them are in spots that the data says are worth a play. That means we may be able to attack teams in good spots with potentially low ownership. There are also quite a few value spots to look at tonight that will help us spend up on the more expensive stacks that we’ll want to jam into our lineups. This feels like a night to keep your core stacks tight and sprinkle in a variety of secondary stacks to try to catch lightning in a bottle.
DraftKings has its usual array of low-cost GPP options; four of which cost $20 or less to enter and have a top prize of $1,000 or more, highlighted by the $15-entry Kick Save with a top prize of $20,000. Meanwhile, FanDuel has a $4.44 entry tournament with a $3000 first prize and a $33 entry, 71-person GPP with $500 for first place. There is a lot of money out there for big spenders and casual players alike. Let’s get that cash!
Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 30% off using code NEW! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!This is going to be a fun slate with a ton of stacking options. My goal is to help you narrow down your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck. Be sure to check out all of our NHL articles and NHL DFS tools, including our daily NHL Heat Map. NHL Premium members can find many members of the RotoBaller NHL team in Discord leading up to lock to answer all of your lineup questions.
Top Three Stacks of the Night
Winnipeg Jets (WPG1 - Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, Alex Iafallo)
The Jets arguably have the best matchup on tonight’s slate. Arizona is allowing nearly three-quarters of a goal per 60 less than expected in five-on-five play on the road. They also allow the highest number of high-danger chances of any team on the slate. Karel Vejmelka is projected to be in net for the Coyotes, and that’s good news for Winnipeg. He’s allowing over three goals per game and the data confirms that the results match what is expected. The translation here is that Vejmelka has been bad and is a goalie we want to attack.
Over their last four games, the Jets' top line has accumulated eight goals and 19 assists; an absolutely boffo number. Tack on Josh Morrissey’s six assists over those games and you’ve got a white-hot, aggressive (a combined 12 shots on goal per game over the last four games) stack that has shown the ability to take down a GPP in matchups just like this.
Vancouver Canucks (VANPP1 - Elias Pettersson, J.T. Miller, Brock Boeser, Quinn Hughes)
One of the strategies that we’ve used to separate ourselves from the rest of the NHL DFS community is to look at even-strength lines rather than power play lines. There was one team that we have regularly broken this strategy for, and that was the Edmonton Oilers because they often shift their lines regularly during games.
This year, we are adding a second team to the list as the Vancouver Canucks' top power play line has clearly been the best way to stack the team. Technically, the best matchup for Vancouver is the second line, but Phillip Di Guiseppe has not proven to be a fantasy asset alongside J.T. Miller and Brock Boeser, while Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes have thrived when on the ice with the second-line stars.
The Canucks are outplaying expectations right now, but even if they regress to their expected output, they’d still be looking at an above-average 2.71 goals per 60 in five-on-five play at home. Meanwhile, the Seattle Kraken are allowing about half a goal less per 60 than expected and they have the fourth-worst penalty kill in the league, so there’s some room for upside with Vancouver. It won’t be cheap to stack them, but value stacks with good matchups, such as WSH3 and LAK3, make it possible to make a Canucks stack work.
Los Angeles Kings (LA2 - Kevin Fiala, Trevor Moore, Phillip Danault)
There are bigger names out there, but few teams have as strong of a matchup as the Kings second line. The St. Louis Blues don’t have a defensive pairing that you want to avoid, but their top pairing of Paryoko/Leddy has been particularly generous to opposing offense. Kevin Fiala, Trevor Moore, and Phillip Danault are projected to spend the most time on the ice with that pairing, so they’re the stack we want to use.
Jordan Binnington has been playing as well as he’s played in years, allowing nearly a full goal per game less than expected. His save percentage is 15 points higher than expected as well, and signs of regression have already started to creep in as he’s allowed three or more goals in four of his last eight starts. Binnington is allowing well over a full goal per game more and his save percentage is 41 points worse on the road this year. Three of his four worst games have come on the road, and the Kings are a strong home offense that the data says should be scoring an above-average 2.87 goals per 60 in five-on-five play.
Others in consideration: BOS1, NJD1
Top Value Stack of the Night
Calgary Flames (CGY3 - Jonathan Huberdeau, Michael Backlund, Blake Coleman)
The matchup for the Flames is one of the better ones on the slate tonight. They are due for positive offensive regression, while the Islanders are due for a huge negative regression defensively. It’s that Islanders number that sticks out, as they have allowed 2.16 fewer goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five play on the road this year. Their 13.84 high-danger chances allowed per game is one of the highest numbers on the slates, and that will only hasten their defensive descent.
The defensive pairing of Romanov/Pulock is the one that you want to attack against the Islanders, and they project to spend the most time on the ice against the Flames' third line; one of the best in the league. Oddly enough, this line is the most expensive for Calgary but it’s with good reason; they are an aggressive trio that can pop off for massive games. Still, they are a value as the entire line only costs $12,500.
Others in consideration: LA3, CBJ1, WSH3, SEA2
Top Goalies to Target
Cam Talbot (Los Angeles Kings)
Cam Talbot has been outstanding this year. He’s allowed three or fewer goals and scored double-digit DraftKings points in 75% of his starts. He’s playing a little bit better than the data would suggest, allowing only 2.11 goals per 60 in five-on-five play and saving 96.2% of the unblocked shots he’s faced. Those are elite numbers, and even with regression, he would still project to put up strong numbers.
The Kings project to get some positive defensive regression, as they have allowed 1.13 more goals per 60 at home than expected. Their biggest strength on defense is that they don’t allow many high-danger chances. The 8.51 chances they do allow at home is the second-lowest on tonight’s slate. The Blues haven’t been great on the road, scoring only 1.46 goals per 60 in five-on-five play. Even if they regress to their expected total, they’d still be below league average. Talbot is a pricey option, but his consistently excellent play makes him an option worth paying up for in cash games.
Others in consideration (GPP): Jordan Binnington, Thacher Demko, Tristan Jarry
Others in consideration (Cash): Jake Oettinger, Linus Ullmark
