NHL DFS Picks and Analysis for December 30, 2023 (Premium Content)

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Last night was a big night as we hit on Dallas, Columbus, Toronto, Florida, and Detroit. Tonight we plan on keeping it going with a smaller-than-usual seven-game slate. Six of the seven games start early, and then there’s the late-night hammer of the Oilers visiting the Kings. The biggest key to this slate is deciding if you want to save minutes for that late game, or if you want to fade it completely and hope that your score holds up through the night. Taking specific plays out of the equation, that particular strategy alone makes this an intriguing, and challenging, slate. 

DraftKings has its usual array of low-cost GPP options, highlighted by the $15-entry Kick Save with a top prize of $10,000. Meanwhile, Fanduel has a $4.44 entry tournament with a $2,000 first prize. There is money to be won tonight, so let’s get that cash!

This is going to be a fun slate with a ton of stacking options. My goal is to help you narrow down your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck. Be sure to check out all of our NHL articles and NHL DFS tools, including our daily NHL Heat Map. NHL Premium members can find many members of the RotoBaller NHL team in Discord leading up to lock to answer all of your lineup questions.

Top Three Stacks of the Night

Nashville Predators (NSH1 - Ryan O’Reilly, Gustav Nyquist, Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi) 

To quote our Discord, “NSH1 is a wagon on the road.” For those who don’t know, when a line is a wagon it means they are very good. The Predators came through last night, as their top line combined for four goals, two assists, and twelve shots on goal in Detroit. Tonight they head into Washington to face the turnstile known as Darcy Kuemper. Last night, Kuemper came in for an injured Charlie Lindgren and immediately proceeded to allow five goals to the Islanders. On Wednesday night he allowed five goals to the Rangers. In their last ten home games, advanced data shows that they should have allowed 2.76 even-strength goals per 60 minutes. That’s one of the higher numbers on the slate, one that we’d generally attack, but then you have to remember all the Washington has going against them (Kuemper in net for the second night in a row, they are at home tonight after playing on the road last night, Nashville’s top line is great on the road) and you realize just how strong of a play the Predators can be tonight. 

Filip Forsberg doing Filip Forsberg things pic.twitter.com/c4F4o4GXKY

— Michael Gallagher (@MGsports_) December 30, 2023

Pittsburgh Penguins (PIT1 - Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel, Rickard Rakell)

Few teams on this slate have a matchup quite as juicy as the Pittsburgh Penguins. The St. Louis Blues defense has been awful on the road. Over their last ten road games, they’ve allowed over three even-strength goals per 60 minutes and advanced data confirms that this is a legitimate number. There isn’t a defensive pairing you want to avoid when playing the Blues, but that doesn’t mean some aren’t worse than others. The third defensive pairing of Scandella/Perunovich is so bad on the road and they should be on the ice quite frequently with the top line for the Penguins. That top line has struggled a bit to produce at home over their last ten games, averaging 1.96 even-strength goals per 60 minutes, but advanced data shows that they’ve been unlucky as their expected goals were just show of three per 60 minutes. That kind of positive regression is one that we want to chase, and against a team as bad as St. Louis it should only accelerate that push towards evening out. 

The key to the Penguins stack is a $3,800 Rickard Rakell, who is starting to finally find his place in this Pittsburgh offense. Over his last three games, he’s recorded two goals, two assists, and twelve shots on goal yet his price hasn’t increased at all. He’s going to be the lowest-owned skater in this stack, and if he continues his hot play then he’s going to be the guy who separates you from the rest of the field. 

Florida Panthers (FLA1 - Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart, Evan Rodrigues)

It may seem like we are chasing last night’s hot game, but the data says that tonight should be just as successful of an outing for the Panthers. Montreal’s defense on the road has been beatable, as they’ve allowed 2.67 even-strength goals per 60 minutes and 13.47 high-danger chances over their last ten games. Meanwhile, the Panthers are playing very well over their last ten home games, scoring 2.62 even-strength goals per 60 minutes. The reason we want to jump on them tonight is that their expected goals per 60 over those ten games are 3.29, meaning they have been getting unlucky, and positive regression should be coming their way. 

This regression may have already started, as the Panthers have been on fire their last three games. Over those three games, the trio of Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart, and Evan Rodrigues has six goals, eight assists, and 30 shots on goal; combining for five individual games of 20 or more DraftKings points over that span. This is a tournament-winning type of line and they are in the perfect matchup to make that happen tonight. 

Others in consideration: NSH1, BOS1, TB1

Top Value Stack of the Night

Carolina Hurricanes (CAR2 - Jesperi Kotaniemi, Martin Necas, Michael Bunting)

While the Heat Map shows a handful of value stacks in good spots tonight, none of them pop off the charts as one that you have to get exposure to. In that case, what I like to do is focus on a stack that has shown consistent performance over time. In the last three years, the Hurricanes' second line, regardless of who is on it, tends to show up in road games. Michael Bunting has been particularly good, recording at least one assist in four of his last seven games, including two games with multiple assists. 

Their matchup tonight in Toronto is favorable, as the Leafs' defense has been suspect all year long. Their expected goals allowed per 60 minutes in their last ten home games is 2.72, and the only reason they haven’t hit that high of a number has been the improved goaltending since Martin Jones came back from injury. Jones has started to show some cracks recently, with three or more goals allowed in three of his last four starts, including two home games. With the Leafs on a back-to-back and coming off an overtime loss, it’s a good night to attack them with a value stack. 

Others in consideration: LAK3, PIT3, TB3

Top Goalies to Target

Stuart Skinner (Edmonton Oilers)

In the introduction to this article, I spoke about the choice you’ll have to make tonight in regards to the late game, Edmonton at Los Angeles. I made it seem like a binary decision, either you play it or you fade it, but perhaps there’s another option. This option is for tournaments only, but it could pay off if it works out, and that option is to fade the skaters and play Stuart Skinner as your goalie. Skinner has struggled at times this year, but his recent run of road games gives some hope that he could overperform in tonight’s matchup. 

Over his last four road starts, he’s scored 17 or more DraftKings points three times; a fine return on his $7,600 salary. The defense playing in front of him is getting stronger, allowing only 8.12 high-danger chances and 2.16 even-strength goals per 60 minutes in their last ten road games. The Oilers’ expected goals allowed is 2.1, which means that they’ve not been getting lucky and their success is repeatable. The Kings take more shots than any team on the slate, which means that volume should be there to offset a game where Skinner ends up allowing three goals. This is the perfect slate to take a shot on Skinner to try to lap the field if this game is a low-scoring affair. 

Others in consideration (GPP): Yaroslav Askarov, Tristan Jarry, Linus Ullmark, Andrei Vasilevskiy

Others in consideration (Cash): Cam Talbot, Anthony Stolarz, Martin Jones

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