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RotoBaller's NHL Premium Picks and Analysis for the DFS slate on FanDuel and DraftKings on December 14, 2023.
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Tonight’s slate is a relatively small eight-gamer, but that doesn’t mean we are left with limited options for our DFS lineups. Multiple games look to be shootouts, with the Senators-Blues matchup looking particularly juicy from a defensive perspective. There are a few public teams on the slate, with Toronto, Tampa Bay, and Edmonton leading the charge. With three of them on the slate, it should help to keep ownership down across the board. There is also plenty of value on this slate, so getting to a big stack shouldn’t be that much of an issue if you want to go with a “stars and scrubs” approach.
DraftKings has its usual array of low-cost GPP options; four of which cost $20 or less to enter and have a top prize of $1,000 or more, highlighted by the $15-entry Kick Save with a top prize of $10,000. Meanwhile, FanDuel has a $4.44 entry tournament with a $3,000 first prize and a $33 entry, 106-person GPP with $1,000 for first place. There is a lot of money out there for big spenders and casual players alike. Let’s get that cash!
This is going to be a fun slate with a ton of stacking options. My goal is to help you narrow down your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck. Be sure to check out all of our NHL articles and NHL DFS tools, including our daily NHL Heat Map. NHL Premium members can find many members of the RotoBaller NHL team in Discord leading up to lock to answer all of your lineup questions.
Top Three Stacks of the Night
Ottawa Senators (OTT2 - Vladimir Tarasenko, Tim Stutzle, Drake Batherson)
There may not be a team that plays worse on defense than the St. Louis Blues at home. They have allowed over three even-strength goals per game, yet data says this number is good compared to what they should have allowed. That a team can give up this many goals at home and still have room to get worse is incredible.
Part of the issue for the Blues is that their defense has allowed just shy of 15 high-danger chances per game. Jordan Binnington has played well at home (more on that below), but there are only so many games where a goalie can prevent a barrage of dangerous shots.
The Senators have two very strong lines, and each will be in a position to succeed, but it looks like the second line will have the most ice time with the defensive pairing of Scott Perunovich/Marco Scandella; by far the worst for the Blues (and that’s saying something).
Ottawa has been great so far this year on the road, scoring 3.27 even-strength goals per 60 minutes. Even with some negative regression, they have been playing well enough to put up big numbers. The trio of Batherson, Tarasenko, and Stutzle have averaged over 33 DraftKings points over their last 10 games. That’s a great floor for their prices, and with it being an average, that means there’s a strong ceiling to reach for in this amazing matchup.
Philadelphia Flyers (PHI1 - Travis Konecny, Sean Couturier, Tyson Foerster)
We have been attacking Darcy Kuemper all year long in the RotoBaller Discord and with good reason. He’s allowed over three goals per game with an underwhelming save percentage, and advanced data doesn’t foresee any positive regression coming his way. The simple translation here is that Kuemper has been bad and he’s going to continue being bad. Sadly, the Flyers have also been bad but data suggests they’re not this bad.
Over their last 10 games, they’ve scored a paltry 1.82 even-strength goals per 60 minutes at home, but their expected total is 0.65 goals higher. That’s a lot of room to grow, and with a strong home matchup, they’re priced well enough to take a shot that the regression starts now.
The top line plays far better at home, where they have combined to average more than 30 DraftKings points per game. Tonight, it’s likely they’ll spend the majority of their ice time facing the weakest defensive pairing for the Capitals. We’ve seen big games before from Couturier and Konecny, and this is one of the best spots they’ve been in for a long while.
Edmonton Oilers (EDM1 - Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, Evan Bouchard)
Back-to-back articles with the Oilers as a featured stack? Am I sick? On a night with relatively few high-priced stacks, it would seem foolish to fade one of the most lethal teams in the league. Edmonton doesn’t have the best matchup on the slate, but Tampa Bay’s defense hasn’t been great, so it’s not like they’re running up against a buzzsaw.
Andrei Vasilevskiy’s return to the lineup for the Lightning has helped them look a little better, but they’ve still allowed over three even-strength goals per game on the road and Edmonton isn’t exactly a get-right spot.
The Oilers have been great at home, averaging 3.32 even-strength goals per game. Advanced data shows that any negative regression should be negligible. It’s incredibly hard to afford an entire Oilers stack, meaning that it’ll be unique if you’re able to pull it off. There are a few value stacks that can help make this a reality, as well as two cheap goalies who could face a ton of volume. Check my Heat Map to see a sample lineup of how to make a four-man Oilers stack a reality.
Others in consideration: FLA1, TOR1, DET1, OTT1
Top Value Stack of the Night
Columbus Blue Jackets (CBJ1 - Johnny Gaudreau, Justin Danforth, Adam Fantilli, Zach Werenski)
Toronto goalie Ilya Samsonov has been really bad this year. He’s allowing over one-third more goals per game than projected, and his save percentage is seven points lower than what the data suggests it should be. He’s also getting little help from his defense, as multiple defensive pairings have allowed greater than 10 high-danger chances per game.
The Blue Jackets have been playing well at home offensively, scoring just under three even-strength goals per game. That number is higher than the data would expect, but given the promising matchup, it’s not unreasonable to think their good fortunes can continue for one more night.
Their top line is very inexpensive all things considered, and with Adam Fantilli jumping up to this group, their potential just grew quite a bit. He started off his rookie year slowly, but over these last six games, he’s scored double-digit fantasy points four times.
Maybe he’s the spark that Johnny Gaudreau needs to get back on track. Zach Werenski is a must-add to this stack as he’s rolling on the top power play and he’s averaging nearly five SABS (shots and blocked shots) per game. Keep an eye on our Discord to make sure this line stays as projected as the Blue Jackets are known for blending their lines with little notice.
Others in consideration: SEA3, STL2, STL3, EDM4
Top Goalies to Target
Jordan Binnington (St. Louis Blues)
You may be asking yourself how the Ottawa Senators can be the only blue stack on the Heat Map, yet Jordan Binnington, the opposing goalie, is also listed as the only blue goalie. The simple answer is volume. The Senators are taking an average of 33.1 shots on goal per game, while the Blues are allowing an average of 32.4 shots on goal per game. Only one other goalie on the slate (Daniil Tarasov) has a similar expected volume.
In DFS, saves are what drives fantasy points for goalies, and the only way to get saves is to face shots. Binnington’s stats don’t look great, with three goals allowed per game, but those three goals are over half a goal better than what the data says Binnington should have allowed. In a way, you could say he’s actually been good this year and his fantasy production would back that up.
He’s scored 20 or more DraftKings points in nine of 19 starts, giving him a strong ceiling for tournaments. He’s averaging nearly 17 DraftKings points per game at home, which is significantly better than his road performance. Binnington’s range of outcomes is large, so he’s much more of a GPP play than a cash option, but if you’re not playing the Senators as one of your stacks, then Binnington is a name to look at. The same philosophy can be applied to Tarasov, priced at just $6,700, and Ville Husso, priced at $7,100.
Others in consideration (GPP): Ville Husso, Daniil Tarasov, Petr Mrazek, Thatcher Demko
Others in consideration (Cash): Andrei Vasilevskiy, Sergei Bobrovsky, Carter Hart
