NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, SuperDraft (3/9): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

Jorge Pucks delivers his top DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft NHL DFS value plays and research for March 9th including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays, stacks.

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft for Tuesday, March 9th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/9

• • Boston Bruins (-115) vs. New York Islanders (-105) - 5.5U
  • Buffalo Sabres vs. Philadelphia Flyers (-240) - 5.5O
  • New Jersey Devils vs. Washington Capitals (-200) - 6O
  • Nashville Predators vs. Carolina Hurricanes (-205) - 5.5O
  • Florida Panthers (-130) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets - 5.5U
  • Winnipeg Jets vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (-185) - 6.5U
  • Tampa Bay Lightning (-350) vs. Detroit Red Wings - 5.5U
  • Chicago Blackhawks vs. Dallas Stars (-135) - 5.5U

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium NHL DFS subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Jorge by using promo code JORGEPUCKS when purchasing an NHL DFS Premium Pass. You get 10% off, and exclusive access to all of our Premium NHL cheat sheets, DFS research tools, Premium Slack Chatrooms, Stack Builder, Correlation Matrix and Lineup Optimizer!

NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

• Auston Matthews, TOR ($9,200 DK / 8,700 FD) - Matthews has now gone three games without scoring a single point and while this might seem concerning, you have to remember that he has generated 31 total points in just 23 games played with 18 of those points being goals scored. Over his last four games, Matthews has tallied up 19 total shots and if he continues to fire the puck towards the net, good things will happen.
• Sebastian Aho, CAR ($6,200 DK / $5,700 FD) - Aho is heating up on the offensive end of things as he has scored three goals over his last three games played and has accrued five total points over his last four games played. Aho has found success against the Predators this season as he has registered three goals and one assist in just two games against them.
• Pierre-Luc DuBois, WPG ($4,500 DK / $3,900 FD) - DuBois should be in a high-event matchup against Toronto which means opportunities could open up for him and his linemates. DuBois is averaging close to four peripheral stats per game over his last four games played and could be a solid value play at the center position in all formats.

Other centers to consider: Barkov, Scheifele, Couturier, Point, Trocheck, Pavelski, Backstrom, Hayes, Staal, Roslovic, Gourde, Johnson

NHL DFS Forward Picks

• Alex Ovechkin, WSH ($8,300 DK / $8,000 FD) - Ovechkin hasn't been quite himself this year from a goal-scoring standpoint but he is still taking a good amount of shots which makes him viable in all formats. Over his last four games, Ovechkin has fired 22 total shots on goal and has actually netted two goals off of those 22 shots.
• Patric Hornqvist, FLA ($5,900 DK / $6,700 FD) - Hornqvist is having a very productive season so far and with him coming underneath the 6k mark on DK, he definitely stands out as a high-upside play. In his two games against Columbus this season, Hornqvist has taken eight shots on goal and has found the back of the net once so he can easily hit value in this matchup.
• Oliver Bjorkstrand, CBJ ($3,800 DK / $6,900 FD) - One Blue Jackets forward that constantly goes overlooked is Oliver Bjorkstrand. Bjorkstrand is third on the team in goals scored on the season (7) and is second on the team in total points scored (18) yet he is priced all the way down under 4k over on DK.... it seems fishy but regardless, the price point is just too good to pass up on.

Other wings to consider: Kane, DeBrincat, Marner, Stamkos, Forsberg, JVR, Ehlers, Connor, Wheeler, Farabee, Svechnikov, Kubalik, Benn, Necas, Hall, Oshie, Verhaeghe, Gurianov, Coleman, Jenner,  Stastny, Svechnikov, Foegele, McGinn 

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

• Victor Hedman, TBL ($7,000 DK / $6,300 FD) - The defender with the highest ceiling is Victor Hedman. Hedman has a point machine as he has racked up nine points over his last 10 games played and has generated a point in seven out of his last eight games played. When looking at his last four games, Hedman is averaging over five peripheral stats per game which is great from a floor perspective and makes for a great all-around play in all formats.
• Miro Heiskanen, DAL ($5,200 DK / $5,300 FD) - Miro Heiskanen has seen a big uptick in minutes and if John Klingberg is out again on Tuesday, Heiskanen should see additional ice time as he will skate on the top power-play unit. Heiskanen has recorded a point in three straight games and has registered double-digit DK points in five of his last six games played.
• Zach Werenski, CBJ ($4,200 DK / $4,500 FD) - The pricing on Werenski is just too good to pass up as he does carry some point-scoring upside as he skates on both the top defensive pairing and quarterbacks the Blue Jackets power-play unit. Werenski is seeing over 24 minutes of ice time and averages over two shots on goal per game so he is more of a high-reward type of play when he is priced down like this on DK.

Other defensemen to consider: Hamilton, Josi, Carlson, Jones, Sergachev, Gostisbehere, Muzzin, Grzelcyk, Morrissey, Smith, Mayfield, Weegar, Boqvist

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

• Andrei Vasilevskiy, TBL ($8,400 DK / $7,800 FD) - Vasilevskiy is one of the best goaltenders in the entire league as he is sporting a 15-3-1 record with a 1.73 goals allowed average and a .939 save percentage in 19 games started this year. Vasilevskiy is 2-0 against Detroit this year and has stopped 42 of 44 shots faced as he has held them to one goal scored per game. The shutout and win upside is there for Vasilevskiy but the shot volume will be down so you'll be hoping he can limit them to just one goal throughout the entire game to hit his value.
• Carter Hart, PHI ($8,300 DK / $8,100 FD) - Carter Hart plays much better when he is at home and with Buffalo coming into town, it seems too good of an opportunity to pass up. Hart is 6-5-3 on the year with a 3.47 goals allowed average and a .893 save percentage but has a 3-2-2 record and a 3.08 goals allowed average when he has tended the net at home this season. Hart is 1-1 against Buffalo this season and has stopped 46 of 50 shots faced but he also has a shutout against them which shows the upside that he has in this matchup.
• James Reimer, CAR ($8,000 DK / $8,300 FD) - Reimer has put together a solid 2021 campaign as he is 11-3 with a 2.83 goals allowed average and a .903 save percentage. Reimer has won three straight games and gets a good matchup against a Predators team that he has beaten twice this year. In just two games against Nashville this season, he has stopped 67 of 71 total shots faced which shows that he will see a heavy dose of shots which correlates to plenty of save opportunities.

Other goalies to consider: Varlamov, Korpisalo

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership.

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks

• PHI 1 
  • JVR/ Couturier/ Farabee (Gostisbehere, d-men add on)
    • The top line for the Flyers has been a very good puck possessing line and while they aren't the strongest goal scoring line on the slate, they're generating 29.37 scoring chances for and 6.03 high danger chances for per 60 minutes of ice time. The Sabres as a team are allowing 2.82 goals per 60 minutes while also allowing 10.57 high danger chances per game as well which bodes well for this Flyers squad. This Flyers top line is fully correlated as they will skate together at both even strength and on the power play and make for one of the more secure line stacks on the slate.
• WSH 1
  • Ovechkin/ Backstrom/ Oshie  (Carlson, d-men add on)
    • Washington has finally reunited Ovechkin with Backstrom and Oshie and while this line got off to a terrible start to the season, some time apart could have done them well. This line will have the home-ice advantage which means they could find themselves in some favorable matchups against the depth lines of the Devils and even more important, are fully correlated at even strength and on the power play. The Caps have a top 10 power-play unit and will be going up against the worst power-play unit in the entire league so loading up on the Caps power-play unit could be a stack to truly consider on this slate.
• TB PP
  • Palat/ Point/ Stamkos ( Hedman, d-men add on)
    • The Lightning are the biggest favorites on the slate and getting exposure to their power-play unit could be one way to be different on the slate. They have a top-five power-play unit and will face off against the 30th ranked penalty-killing team in the league so if they can get the odd-man advantage several times, it could be a high-scoring night for Tampa Bay. Also, by stacking the power-play unit, you could diversify your lineup a bit by getting bits and pieces of their top two lines as Kilorn and Stamkos will correlate on the second line and on the top power-play line while Point, Palat, and Hedman all skate together on the top line and top power-play line. Since the Lightning will have one of the larger team totals on the slate, this will cover your bases a bit should several of their lines go off and you'll have exposure to both lines.

Other Stacks to consider: TOR 1, CHI 1, CBJ 1, TBL 2, CAR 1, CAR 3

SuperDraft NHL DFS Picks

C:  Matthews (1.05X), Point (1.4X), Couturier (1.5X), Barkov (1.7X)

W: Kane (1.15X), Svechnikov (1.35X), Hornqvist (1.55X), Marner (1.65X)

D: Hedman (1.1X), Carlson (1.25X), Josi(1.35), Heiskanen (1.6X)

G: Hart (1.25X), Reimer (1.45X), Varlamov (1.7X)

*Core 4 for SuperDraft are Bolded

Key Abbreviations:

xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time

GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time

SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time

If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!

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