NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, SuperDraft (3/19): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

4 years ago by Jorge Pucks

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Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft for Friday, March 19th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/19

- New York Rangers vs. Washington Capitals (-140) - 5.5O
- Vancouver Canucks vs. Montreal Canadiens (-180) - 6U
- Calgary Flames vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (-165) - 6.5U
- St. Louis Blues (-145) vs. San Jose Sharks - 6U
- Vegas Golden Knights (-175) vs. Los Angeles Kings - 5.5O

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

Team	Rank GA	Rank SA	Rank GF	Rank SF	Total
Calgary	19	14	12	14	17.5
Toronto	9	24	28	9	14.75
Vancouver	21	2	10	11	11.75
Montreal	10	22	21	3	13.25
New York Rangers	11	24	17	18	22.5
Washington	17	21	30	25	18.25
St. Louis	25	18	18	18	17.5
San Jose	30	3	13	14	17.25
Vegas	1	26	26	9	16.5
Los Angeles	12	9	15	24	14

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

Matchup	PP Rank	Opp PK Rank
Calgary	15	22
Toronto	2	14
Vancouver	16	19
Montreal	14	11
New York Rangers	27	12
Washington	6	3
St. Louis	21	16
San Jose	18	26
Vegas	22	6
Los Angeles	8	5

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium NHL DFS subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Jorge by using promo code JORGEPUCKS when purchasing an NHL DFS Premium Pass. You get 10% off, and exclusive access to all of our Premium NHL cheat sheets, DFS research tools, Premium Slack Chatrooms, Stack Builder, Correlation Matrix and Lineup Optimizer!

NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

Auston Matthews, TOR ($9,300 DK / $8,800 FD) - The center with the highest ceiling on the slate is Auston Matthews. He has recorded five points over his last four games and has notched two goals and three assists in four games against the Flames this year.
Tomas Hertl, SJS ($4,900 DK / $5,800 FD) - Hertl is still under-priced on both sites and has returned to a good form since his return. Hertl has generated five points in four games played with one of those points being a goal.
Evgeny Kuznetsov, WSH ($4,200 DK / $6,300 FD) - The Kuznetsov hot streak continues as he has scored a point in five straight games and continues to be under-priced over on DK as he is in the low 4k range. Kuznetsov continues to center the second line for the Capitals as well as being part of the second power-play unit but has started to step up offensively which is what Washington has been looking for all season long.

Other centers to consider: Kopitar, Couture, Schenn, Lindholm, Strome, Monahan, Suzuki, Karlsson, Glass

NHL DFS Forward Picks

Alex Ovechkin, WSH ($8,300 DK / $8,100 FD) - Ovechkin has been on a little bit of a hot streak as well as he has scored a goal in four straight games and has taken 19 shots during this four-game goal streak. With how active he has been on the offensive end lately, it is hard to not consider him in all formats.
Brendan Gallagher, MTL ($5,700 DK / $6,200 FD) - Gallagher finally broke through his dry spell as he notched a goal and an assist against Winnipeg on Wednesday. prior to that game, Gallagher was pointless in five straight games, and with him now skating with Nick Suzuki and Tyler Toffoli, this line could do some damage if they get into the right matchup.
Dillon Dube, CGY ($3,900 DK / $4,400 FD) - From a value standpoint, Dillon Dube could be a viable play in all formats. He is skating on the top line and sees time on the second power-play unit and has registered a point in back-to-back games.

Other wings to consider: Pacioretty, Marner, Panarin, Toffoli, Kane, Perron, Stone, Kreider, Tkachuk, Meier, Gaudreau, Labanc, Smith, Thornton, Drouin

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

Brent Burns, SJS ($5,900 DK / $6,100 FD) - The pricing on Burns has dropped significantly and it is hard to not gravitate towards him on both sites with his current price. Burns has gone six games without scoring a goal but has fared well against the Blues this year as he has scored a goal and registered four assists in six games against St. Louis.
Jake Muzzin, TOR ($4,900 DK / $4,300 FD) - While Muzzin doesn't offer the highest point-scoring upside, he sees plenty of time on the ice and can rack up peripheral stats better than most. Muzzin has notched a goal and an assist in just two games against the Flames this year while taking four shots on goal and blocking three shots in those two games.
Nic Hague, VGK ($4,000 DK / $3,500 FD) - If looking for a good value on both sites, Hague could be one to plug into your cash game lineups. He is averaging four peripheral stats per game over his last four games and has recorded a point in back-to-back games.

Other defensemen to consider: Carlson, Theodore, Petry, Martinez, Fox, Rielly, Hughes, Karlsson, Schmidt, Romanov

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

Ilya Samsonov, WSH ($7,700 DK / $8,600 FD) - Samsonov has been a machine in net as he is 6-0-1 on the year with a 2.54 goals allowed average and a .907 save percentage. Samsonov has won five straight shots and is allowing two goals per game over his last five games played. While the Rangers are coming off of a dominant win against the Flyers, the Capitals pose a different type of threat and Samsonov should benefit by having the home-ice advantage.
Carey Price, MTL ($8,200 DK / $7,900 FD) - While a good chunk of people might flock to roster the white-hot Thatcher Demko, I am intrigued by looking at the other side of this game at Carey Price. The Canucks will still be without Elias Pettersson which only helps the case of rostering Price. Price is 3-0-2 against the Canucks this season but is sporting a very low 2.14 goals allowed average and a .919 save percentage against them. On the season, Price is 9-5-5 with a 2.66 goals allowed average and a .907 save percentage and will have the home line matching advantage which only favors Price in this matchup.
Marc-Andre Fleury, VGK ($8,400 DK / $8,400 FD) - Fleury has won four straight starts and is 16-5 on the season as he looks to grab his 17th win tonight against Los Angeles. Fleury has only faced the Kings once this season and allowed two goals in a winning effort. Fleury is arguably the best goaltender in the NHL right now and if you're wanting the safest play at the position, it very much might be him.

Other goalies to consider: Andersen, Jones

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks

TOR 1
- Thornton/ Matthews/ Marner (Rielly, d-men add on)
  - The top Toronto line is certainly in play and they are fully correlated at even strength and on the power play so it makes it easy to stack them due to their correlation. While the pricing is high on Matthews and Marner, adding in a cheap value like Thornton helps open up salary for the rest of your roster. While this line has a low expected goal for rate (2.19), they are generating 32.96 scoring chances for per 60 and 8.56 high danger chances per 60 which puts them in play.
MTL 1
- Toffoli/ Suzuki/ Gallagher (Weber, d-men add on)
  - While this trio hasn't seen much time together, they do form a formidable trio that has a lot of scoring potential. This line features three of their five highest goal scorers while all three skaters are in the top five of total points scored as well. In just 18 minutes of ice time, this line is sporting a 3.05 expected goals for rate per 60 minutes while generating 28.7 scoring chances for per 60 minutes. Both Nick Suzuki and Brendan Gallagher are featured on the top power-play unit and make a great pairing with Shea Weber if you were looking for a high-upside trio from the Canadiens.
SJS 1
- Kane/ Couture/ Labanc (Burns, d-men add on)
  - The pricing on this line has gotten a tad pricier but that means that ownership could be down on them as well. On the season, this trio is a 2.81 expected goals for per 60 rate while generating 30.91 scoring chances for and 12.52 high danger chances for per 60 minutes of ice time. This line has seen over 40 minutes of ice time against the Blues this year and has scored three goals while generating 27 scoring chances and eight high-danger chances.