NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, SuperDraft (3/11): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

Jorge Pucks delivers his top DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft NHL DFS value plays and research for March 11th including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays, stacks.

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft for Thursday, March 11th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/11

• • New York Rangers vs. Boston Bruins (-180) - 5.5U
  • Pittsburgh Penguins (-190) vs. Buffalo Sabres - 6U
  • New Jersey Devils vs. New York Islanders (-210) - 5O
  • Washington Capitals (-110) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (-110) - 6U
  • Nashville Predators (-130) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (-220) - 5.5O
  • Florida Panthers (-130) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets - 5.5U
  • Winnipeg Jets vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (-175) - 6.5U
  • Tampa Bay Lightning (-340) vs. Detroit Red Wings - 5.5U
  • Chicago Blackhawks vs. Dallas Stars (-145) - 5.5U
  • Montreal Canadiens (-105) vs. Calgary Flames (-115) - 5.5O

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium NHL DFS subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Jorge by using promo code JORGEPUCKS when purchasing an NHL DFS Premium Pass. You get 10% off, and exclusive access to all of our Premium NHL cheat sheets, DFS research tools, Premium Slack Chatrooms, Stack Builder, Correlation Matrix and Lineup Optimizer!

NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

• Auston Matthews, TOR ($9,100 DK / 8,900 FD) - Matthews finally broke out of his cold spell as he netted two goals on six shots against the Jets on Tuesday night. He has recorded two goals and an assist in just two games against Winnipeg this season while also managing to take 11 total shots in that two-game span. With this being a good-paced game, Matthews should not be ignored in cash game lineups.
• Mathew Barzal, NYI ($6,000 DK / $6,900 FD) - When it comes to selecting a center with some upside, Barzal is one to always consider. He has 23 points in 26 games this season and has produced a point in four of his last five games played.
• Roope Hintz, DAL ($4,500 DK / $5,300 FD) - Hintz is playing close to a point per game pace as he has tallied up 14 points in just 15 games played. Hintz has produced back-to-back two-point outings and has recorded two goals and an assist in three games against Chicago this year so he remains to be a good value play on both sites.

Other centers to consider: Bergeron, Barkov, Crosby, Couturier, Scheifele, Trocheck, Pavelski, Point, Malkin, Staal, Pageau, Eller, Krejci, Kotkaniemi

NHL DFS Forward Picks

• David Pastrnak, BOS ($8,700 DK / $8,500 FD) - If spending up at the winger position, Pastrnak always makes for a great safe option. Over on DK, Pastrnak has hit double-digit DK points in 9 out of his last 10 games played and that is the kind of floor you are willing to spend up for.
• Jonathan Huberdeau, FLA ($5,800 DK / $7,300 FD) - Huberdeau is now riding a four-game point streak and has recorded six total points over that four-game stretch. Huberdeau leads the Panthers in goals, assists, and total points, and with him being at a reduced price, he is hard to pass up in tournament builds.
• Oliver Bjorkstrand, CBJ ($4,200 DK / $5,700 FD) - The pricing on Bjorkstrand stayed in a similar range even after Bjorkstrand found the back of the net against the Panthers on Tuesday night. Bjorkstrand now ranks second on the team in goals scored, assist, and is tied for first with 19 points scored so getting him at this price point is a steal in all formats.

Other wings to consider: Kane, DeBrincat, Marner,  Stamkos, Marchand, Guentzel, JVR, Lee, Rust, Svechnikov, Palat, Hornqvist, Atkinson, Gallagher, Laine, Benn, Eberle, Konecny, Gurianov, Verhaeghe, Kapanen, Voracek, Coleman, Smith, McGinn, Marchment, Foegele

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

• Victor Hedman, TBL ($6,800 DK / $7,000 FD) - Hedman was able to notch an assist against Detroit and extended his point streak to five games. Hedman has recorded a goal and two assists in just three games against the Red Wings this season and remains to be the safest defenseman option on the slate.
• Ivan Provorov, PHI ($4,700 DK / $5,100 FD) - The pricing on Provorov is dropping but as long as he continues to see a steady amount of ice time, he is viable in all formats. While he doesn't have as high of a ceiling as other defensemen on the slate, he has a solid floor based on how he racks up peripheral stats.
• Matt Benning, NSH ($2,500 DK / $3,500 FD) - Matt Benning could see an increased role over the next couple of games for the Predators. Nashville will be without Josi, Ellis, and Fabbro which means Benning's role could increase. In his most recent game, h saw over 18 minutes of ice time and recorded his first goal of the season.

Other defensemen to consider: Hamilton, Carlson, Letang, Petry, Giordano, Rielly, Ekholm, Sergachev, Pulock, Klingberg,  Gostisbehere, Subban, Yandle, Muzzin Grzelcyk, Smith, Dobson, Boqvist, Cernak

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

• Semyon Varlamov, NYI ($8,200 DK / $8,600 FD) - Varlamov checks all of the boxes as one of the best overall goalie picks on the entire slate for all formats. He has five of his last six starts with that only loss coming in overtime to the Penguins. On the season, Varlamov is 12-4-3 with a 2.03 goals allowed average and a .929 saver percentage with three shutouts. Varlamov has faced the Devils twice this season and has won both starts while stopping 58 of 60 total shots in those two games.
• Andrei Vasilevskiy, TBL ($8,400 DK / $8,700 FD) - While Vasilevskiy is always close to the top when it comes to his salary on any given slate, he has been extremely dominant in most of his starts this year. He has won eight of his last nine starts and has won all three starts against Detroit this year despite conceding three goals to the Red Wings earlier this week. Vasilevskiy carries high shutout potential and has one of the strongest odds to get a win so he might be a better fit on FD as he should see a lower shot volume which could hurt him a bit on DK.
• Tristan Jarry, PIT ($8,000 DK / $7,700 FD) - Tristan Jarry has really picked it up over the last couple of weeks as he has won four out of his last five starts and has seen 35+ shot attempts in three of those games. Jarry is 10-7-1 on the year with a 3.05 goals allowed average and a .900 save percentage. While he might not be the most reliable goaltender on the slate, he will face a Sabres team that will be without their star player in Jack Eichel which only benefits Jarry and the Penguins.

Other goalies to consider: Reimer, Halak, Bobrovsky, Andersen

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership.

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks 

• NYI 1
  • Lee/ Barzal/ Eberle (Pulock, d-men add on)
    • With it being a larger slate, the Islanders top line could once again go a tad overlooked in tournaments. This line has a 3.34 expected goals for rate which is one of the highest rates in the league while generating 34.12 scoring chances per 60 and 16.52 high danger chances per 60 as well. With the Nelson line usually line matching with the opposing teams top line, the Barzal line usually gets to face off with the depth lines which only creates for better matchups. In just three games against New Jersey this year, the Barzal line has generated two goals at even strength while creating 26 scoring chances and 13 high danger chances in just 38 minutes of ice time.
• PIT 1
  • Guentzel/ Crosby/ Rust (Letang, d-men add on)
    • The Penguins top line has been a very solid line to use this season and should be a popular target against Buffalo. Over the course of the year so far, this Pens line has a 2.62 expected goals for rate per 60 minutes of ice time while generating 29.93 scoring chances and 14.5 high danger chances for per 60 minutes of ice time. All three forwards skate at even strength and are fully correlated on the power play so if one of them records a goal, there is a strong chance that you might be able to get some assist points as well.

Other Stacks to consider: PHI 1, TB PP, CAR 1/2/3, FL 2, TOR 1, DAL 1, MTL 1/2

SuperDraft NHL DFS Picks

C: Crosby (1.1X), Point (1.4X), Barzal (1.4X), Barkov (1.7X)

W: Kane (1.15X), Laine (1.3X), Marchand (1.45X), Marner (1.65X)

D: Hedman (1.1X), Carlson (1.25X), Klingberg (1.3), Rielly (1.8X)

G: Driedger(1.25X),Vasilevskiy(1.25X), Varlamov (1.7X)

*Core 4 for SuperDraft are Bolded

Key Abbreviations:

xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time

GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time

SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time

If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!

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