NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, SuperDraft (2/15): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings, Fanduel, and SuperDraft for Monday, February 15th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 2/15

• • New York Islanders (-145) vs. Buffalo Sabres - 5.5U
  • Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (-290) - 6.5U
  • Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Carolina Hurricanes (-177) - 5.5O
  • Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-165) - 6U
  • Chicago Blackhawks (-140) vs. Detroit Red Wings - 5.5U
  • Nashville Predators vs. Dallas Stars (-155) - 5.5U
  • Winnipeg Jets vs. Edmonton Oilers (-130) - 6.5U
  • Calgary Flames (-130) vs. Vancouver Canucks - 6U
  • Anaheim Ducks vs. San Jose Sharks (-115) - 5.5U

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium NHL DFS subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Jorge by using promo code JORGEPUCKS when purchasing an NHL DFS Premium Pass. You get 10% off, and exclusive access to all of our Premium NHL cheat sheets, DFS research tools, Premium Slack Chatrooms, Stack Builder, Correlation Matrix and Lineup Optimizer!

NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

• Auston Matthews, TOR ($8,800 DK / $8,600 FD) - Matthews is one of the most reliable DFS hockey players and is always in consideration in all formats. He has recorded a point in every game so far this season and gets a favorable matchup against a Senators team that gives up four goals per game.
• Sean Monahan, CGY ($5,100 DK / $6,700 FD) - Monahan's hot streak against the Canucks came to a halt on Saturday night as he was held pointless and was only able to generate three shots on goal. Monahan is still on a point per game pace against Vancouver and should still be considered for your tournament builds as he gives you solid upside at a very cheap price over on DK.
• Robby Fabbri, DET ($4,100 DK / $4,600 FD) - Fabbri has been a nice piece for this Detroit Red Wings team as he has scored five points in eight games so far this season. Fabbri has generated four points over his last four games and has found the back of the net in three of his last four games as well.

Other centers to consider: McDavid, Draisaitl, Pavelski, Point, Scheifele, Couture, Barkov, Suter, Strome, Stenlund, Pageau

NHL DFS Forward Picks

• Patrick Kane, CHI ($8,300 DK / $8,500 FD) - Kane has been on fire lately as he has recorded multi-point outings in three of his last four games played. So far, Kane has registered four points in just two games against the Red Wings this season and this Detroit squad has allowed nine goals this season to opposing Right Wingers.
• Jordan Eberle, NYI ($5,000 DK / $6,000 FD) - The pricing on both sites for Eberle seems a tad low for the upside that he can bring to your DFS lineups. Eberle is averaging close to four shots per game over his last four games and has had multi-point outings in two out of those games as well. He is an underrated goal-scorer that will carry more scoring responsibility on this Islanders second line which means he might end up taking more overall shots and have more individual scoring opportunities which is ideal for all DFS formats.
• Martin Necas, CAR ($3,500 DK / $4,000 FD) - Necas is featured on a very solid Carolina 2 line and he is one that isn't afraid to take some shots on goal when the opportunity presents itself. Necas has six points in nine games this season and skates on the second forward line and second power-play line while also averaging close to 18 minutes of ice time per game. Necas brings a solid floor to your cash game lineups as he is averaging close to four peripheral stats over his last four games and has notched a point in back-to-back games as well.

Other wings to consider: Stamkos, DeBrincat, Marner, RNH, Tkachuk, Svechnikov, Kane, Benn, Gurianov, Kubalik, Palat, Mantha, Duclair, Bailey, Coleman, Zadina, Dadonov, Ryan, Thornton

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

• Brent Burns, SJS ($6,500 DK / $6,600 FD) - While Burns might not be the safest high-priced defenseman on the slate, he certainly has the potential to have the highest ceiling. The upside for Burns is in his shooting potential as he has taken at least four shots in three of his last five games that he has played in. While the Ducks are a stingy defensive unit, they can get scored on and the Sharks need Burns to get going so they can stay relevant in the Honda West division.
• Tyson Barrie, EDM ($5,400 DK / $5,600 FD) - Barrie might end up being my favorite overall play on this slate. his pricing is still soft on DK despite him registering a point in seven out of his last eight games. Barrie is skating on the top defensive pairing and is also on the top power-play as well so his scoring upside is there as he will see plenty of ice time with the likes of Connor McDavid and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
• Scott Mayfield, NYI ($2,800 DK / $3,500 FD) - Punting the defensemen position can be tricky but one of the best things to look for is their overall floor and ice time. Mayfield is sub 3k on DK and is sub 4k on FD and is averaging over five peripheral stats per game over his last five games played.

Other defensemen to consider: Hedman, Josi, Chabot, Klingberg, Nurse, Ellis, Rielly, Jones, Pionk, Dobson, Morrissey, Pesce, Bouchard, Forbort, Beaudin, Cernak

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

• Andrei Vasilevskiy, TBL ($8,300 DK / $8,600 FD) - Vasilevskiy is back on the slate and should be a popular option in cash game lineups. He is coming off of a dominant performance against Florida on Saturday where he allowed one goal and stopped 33 out of 34 total shots. The Panthers are averaging over 31 shots per game and with the save upside that Vasilevskiy presents, he could be one of the top DFS- scoring goalies on this entire slate.
• Semyon Varlamov, NYI ($8,200 DK / $8,200 FD) - Varlamov has looked really solid in his first 10 starts of the season. He has gone 6-2-2 and has a 1.98 goals allowed average while also having a .930 save percentage. Varlamov has been a winner in three out of his last four games and has managed to score double-digit DK points in four straight games. The Sabres are only generating 2.8 goals per game but are taking the second-most shots per game (32.2) so there is high save-potential for Varlamov in this matchup.
• Anton Khudobin, DAL ($8,100 DK / $7,900 FD) - Ste Stars got off to a hot start and part of that is due to the play of Anton Khudobin. Khudobin opened up the season winning three straight games with two of those wins coming against Nashville. On the season Khudobin is 3-3-1 with a 2.75 goals allowed average and a .902 save percentage. When it comes to facing the Preds so far this year, Khudobin is 2-0 with a 1.00 goals allowed average and a .961 save percentage. Khudobin hasn't been in the best of form as he has lost four straight games (one of them coming in overtime) but hopefully, he can right the ship against a Nashville team that is scoring just 2.3 goals per game so far this season.

Other goalies to consider: Markstrom, Hellebuyck, Lankinen

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership.

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks

• TOR 1
  • Hyman/ Matthews/ Marner (Rielly, d-men add on)
    • The Maple Leafs will carry the highest ownership on this slate but it will be tough to flat-out fade them in this matchup against the Senators on home ice.  Joe Thornton looks like he will be back in action on Monday night and will rejoin Matthews and Marner on the top line and top power-play unit which then slides Hyman down to the second forward line with Tavares and Nylander. With Thornton back in the lineup, this top line for the Maple Leafs had a 73.49 corsi for rating while sporting a 2.17 expected goals for rate while also generating 40.81 scoring chances for and 7.2 high danger chances per 60 minutes of ice time. All three skaters correlate on the power-play unit as well and this is a good matchup for the Maple Leafs special teams as the Sens rank 24th when it comes to penalty kills.
• DAL 1/ PP Unit
  • Benn/ Pavelski/ Kiviranta (Klingberg, d-men add on) 
    • The Stars top line has looked very good throughout the beginning portion of the season. When diving into the numbers,  the trio of Benn, Pavelski, and Klingberg has posted some really strong numbers in 38 minutes of ice time together. They have an expected goal for rate of 3.34 while generating 45.43 scoring chances for and 12.53 high-danger opportunities per 60 minutes of ice time. The Stars also have a top-five power-play unit and will be going up against a Nashville team that has the second-worst penalty-killing unit in the entire league and all three of those skaters are featured on the top power-play unit.
• CHI 1/ PP Unit
  • DeBrincat/ Suter/ Kane (Strome, Soderberg, and Beaudin, additional add ons)
    • The Blackhawks top line continues to impress and with DeBincat sliding back up to join Kane and Suter, they carry as much multi-point upside as any other forward line in the league. Right now, this group has seen close to 90 minutes of ice time and is generating a 2.42 expected goals for rate while generating 28.08 scoring chances for and 9.36 high-danger chances for per 60 minutes. The Red Wings have actually been solid on the defensive end as they are holding opposing teams to just 28 shots per game but are allowing 3.2 goals per game. The Red Wings are vulnerable when it comes to the penalty kill as they have one of the worst PK units in the league and Chicago is sporting the second-best power-play unit in the league so stacking their top line and top power-play unit could be a way to get different on this slate.

Other Stacks to consider: TB 1, TOR 2, CAR 1, CAR 3, DET 2, WPG 2, SJ 1

SuperDraft NHL DFS Picks

C: Barzal (1.4X), Point(1.4X), Pavelski (1.55X), Barkov (1.7X), Staal (1.9X)

W: Kane (1.15X), Svechnikov(1.35X), Ehlers (1.4X), Benn (1.55X), Marner (1.65X)

D: Hedman (1.1X),  Burns (1.15X), Klingberg (1.3X),  Jones (1.55X),  Chabot (1.7X)

G: Vasilevskiy (1.25X), Khudobin (1.5X), Varlamov (1.7X)

*Core 4 for SuperDraft are Bolded

Key Abbreviations:

xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time

GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time

SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time

If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!

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