NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, SuperDraft (2/03): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

Jorge Pucks delivers his top DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft NHL DFS value plays and research for February 3rd including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays, stacks.

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings, Fanduel, and SuperDraft for Wednesday, February 3rd, 2020 at 5:30 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 2/03

• Detroit Red Wings vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-315) - 6.5U
• Boston Bruins (-114) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (-106) - 5.5O

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium NHL DFS subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Jorge by using promo code JORGEPUCKS when purchasing an NHL DFS Premium Pass. You get 10% off, and exclusive access to all of our Premium NHL cheat sheets, DFS research tools, Premium Slack Chatrooms, Stack Builder, Correlation Matrix and Lineup Optimizer!

NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

• Brayden Point, TBL ($7,200 DK / $9,000 FD) - Point has been a solid presence for Tampa all season long and with a favorable matchup against Detroit, he should be able to notch a few points. Point has registered eight points in seven games played and has scored four points over his last four games played.
• David Krejci, BOS ($4,400 DK / $7,600 FD) - One way to get different on this slate is to focus on the second line of the Bruins instead of the top line and that would start with David Krejci. Krejci is having a solid start to the season as he has recorded seven points in nine games this season and has registered an assist in back-to-back games.

Other centers to consider: Bergeron, Larkin, Hayes, Cirelli, Gourde

NHL DFS Forward Picks

• David Pastrnak, BOS ($8,300 DK / $7,500 FD) - It is really tough to not press the lock button when David Pastrnak is on the slate. While he does draw the tough matchup against the Flyers on this slate, Pastrnak is averaging six shots per game and has recorded three points in his first two games of the season. Pastrnak is one of the best wingers in the game and if you decide to fully fade him on a short slate, your night could be over relatively quick.
• Joel Farabee, PHI ($3,000 DK / $7,200 FD) - If you are looking for a high upside kind of play on this slate, Joel Farabee could be a guy to consider. Farabee is coming off of a hat trick game against the Islanders where he scored on three out of four total shots. Farabee has five goals on the season which is tied for the team-high in the goals scored category.

Other wings to consider: Stamkos, Marchand, Palat, JVR, Killorn, Giroux, Mantha, Smith, Ritchie, Coleman, Ryan

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

• Victor Hedman, TBL ($7,400 DK / $5,500 FD) - On this short slate, Hedman carries the highest floor and highest ceiling at the defenseman position and is a must in cash game builds. Hedman has registered five points over his last four games played with three of those coming on the power play.
• Shayne Gostisbehere, PHI ($3,400 DK / $4,800 FD) - The ghost is back skating on the top line and second power-play line which means more opportunities should start unfolding for him. Gostisbehere is seeing 19.4 minutes of ice time per game and has taken at least two shots per game while also averaging close to two blocked shots per game as well.

Other defensemen to consider: Provorov, McAvoy, Sergachev, McDonagh, Cernak, Lauzon

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

• Andrei Vasilevskiy, TBL ($8,200 DK / $8,500 FD) - The Lightning are big-time favorites on this two-game slate and Vasileskiy is the safest goalie play for both cash games and tournament builds. His price tag is very high so getting him into tournament lineups could be tough but he is certainly a must for cash game builds. Vasilevskiy is 5-1-1 on the year with a 2.14 goals allowed average and a .925 save percentage. Detroit is averaging only two goals scored per game which is the second-lowest average in the entire league so the upside for a win and a shutout is there for Vasilevskiy.
• Tuuka Rask, BOS ($7,900 DK / $8,300 FD) - The Bruins and Flyers game should be the closer of the two games on this slate and Boston is carrying the slight edge based on what Vegas is predicting. Rask is slated to get the start Wednesday night and he is 3-1-1 on the season with a 2.49 goals allowed average and a .890 save percentage. Rask does have a win against Philly earlier this year but he also allowed four goals during that game. The Bruins are stronger offensively with Pastrnak being back and with Philly still missing Sean Couturier, this could be one where Boston is able to squeak out a win on the road.

Other goalies to consider: Hart

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership.

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks

• TBL 1
  • Palat/ Point/ Stamkos (Hedman, D-men add on)
    • The top line for the Lightning should be the most popular line on the slate and for good reason. They are facing a Red Wings team that is allowing 3.5 goals per game and rank last in the league with a 65% penalty kill percentage. This forward line has really good numbers to start the year as they have a 2.99 expected goals for rate per 60 and are generating 31.89 scoring chances for and 14.43 high-danger opportunities per 60 minutes of ice time.
• BOS 1
  • Marchand/ Bergeron/ Pastrnak (McAvoy, D-men add on)
    • The top line for Boston is back at full strength and it is hard to not want to roster them every time they are on a slate. In just 22 minutes of ice time this season, the Boston 1 line is producing a 75% corsi for percentage, while having a 3.31 expected goals for rate while 35.24 scoring chances for rate per 60 minutes of ice time. While it is a very small sample size, we know this is a very lethal line as they have produced three goals in just two games of being full reunited.

Other Stacks to consider: BOS 2, TBL 3, PHI 3

SuperDraft NHL DFS Picks

C: Point (1X), Bergeron (1.05X), Kejci (1.65X)

W: Stamkos (1X), Pastrnak (1.15X), Palat (1.85X)

D: Hedman (1.X), Provorov (1.45X), McDonagh (2X)

G: Rask (1X), Vasilevskiy (1.15X)

*Core 4 for SuperDraft are Bolded

Key Abbreviations:

xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time

GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time

SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time

If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!

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