RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. It is Stanley Cup Finals' time which means it's time to sharpen our showdown lineup skills and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Friday, July 2nd, 2020 at 8:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
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Intro and Overview
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together.
In the image above, you'll see that Sidney Crosby is skating in-between Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust and this line has skated together for most of the year. The idea behind staking forward lines is that if Crosby gets a goal, there is a higher percentage and chance that either Rust or Guentzel would get credited with an assist, therefore, resulting in more fantasy points.
The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play on that site just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 7/2
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- Tampa Bay Lightning (-140) vs. Montreal Canadiens (-140) - 5O
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
NHL DFS Power Play Matrix
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).
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NHL DFS Core Plays- Showdown Edition
Captain/ MVP Picks
- Andrei Vasilevskiy ($11,200 DK) - Vasilevskiy has only allowed two total goals through the first two games of the series against the Canadiens and he has been in great form as he has won four out of his last five games that he has started. We can anticipate him getting the best overall shot that Montreal has as they will be on the Canadien's home ice but the lack of high-scoring potential for Montreal only makes it easier for Vasilevskiy and company.
- Tyler Toffoli ($8,400 DK/ 13,000 FD) - Montreal will need to get their second line going and that starts with Tyler Toffoli. Toffoli is one of their best goal scorers and with the line matching being in Montreal's favor, Toffoli and his line should be able to find solid matchups throughout the game and avoid the Stamkos line which makes their lives a little easier.
- Carey Price ($9,600 DK) - The Canadiens need to have a big bounce-back game here in Game 3 and one thing that will help is that they will have the home-ice advantage. Price allowed eight total goals to be scored in the first two games of the series but that should change as Montreal will be able to dictate the matchups for the next two games which will help limit the overall high danger Tampa Bay chances.
Value Picks
- Josh Anderson ($4,800 DK/ $9,000 FD) - One Montreal player that really sticks out based on his price point is Josh Anderson. Anderson is a big piece to their third-line depth and is one of the better offensive weapons that Montreal has on their roster. He is coming off of a four-shot game and the Canadiens will need him to be active on the offensive end as they have been struggling to generate quality scoring chances.
- Ben Chiarot ($5,200 DK/ $7,000 FD) - Chiarot continues to rack up peripheral stats which makes him a valuable daily fantasy asset especially in cash games. He continues to see over 23 minutes of ice time and is averaging three peripheral stats per game over his last five games played.
- Blake Coleman ($4,600 DK/ $9,500 FD) - Coleman is off to a good start in the Stanley Cup Finals as he has recorded a point in each game so far (one goal, one assist) and is coming off of a game where he saw 17 minutes of ice time. In Game 2, Coleman took three shots on goal and if he is able to get some solid looks again, he might be able to find the back of the net which would mean he crushed his value.
Stacks (In order of preference)
- TBL 1- Palat/ Point/ Kucherov
- MTL 2- Toffoli/ Suzuki/ Caufield
- TBL 2- Killorn/ Cirelli/ Stamkos
Player Pool (In order of preference)
C- Point, Suzuki, Danault, Cirelli, Kotkaniemi, Staal,
W- Kucherov, Stamkos, Toffoli, Caufield, Palat, Gallagher, Anderson, Killorn, Lehkonen, Coleman, Byron, Goodrow
D- Hedman, Weber, Petry, McDonagh, Sergachev, Chiarot, Cernak, Gustafsson, Edmundson
G- Price, Vasilevskiy
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
NHL Player News and Updates
[jiffyNews category_include='9958' headline='More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis'
