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Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season has now entered the postseason which is the most exciting time to watch and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Friday, June 18th, 2020 at 8:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
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Intro and Overview
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together.
In the image above, you'll see that Sidney Crosby is skating in-between Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust and this line has skated together for most of the year. The idea behind staking forward lines is that if Crosby gets a goal, there is a higher percentage and chance that either Rust or Guentzel would get credited with an assist, therefore, resulting in more fantasy points.
The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play on that site just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 6/18
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- Vegas Golden Knights (-160) vs. Montreal Canadiens - 5O
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
NHL DFS Power Play Matrix
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).
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NHL DFS Core Plays- Showdown Edition
Captain Picks
- Marc-Andre Fleury ($11,200 DK) - Fleury is coming off of his first loss in six playoff starts as he allowed three total goals on 23 shots faced. Fleury has flourished on the road this season as he has gone 16-7-1 with a 1.97 goals allowed average and a .928 save percentage while also posting five shutout performances. The Golden Knights are still the favorites in this matchup and as long as Fleury is between the pipes, he carries one of the higher ceilings out of all players on this showdown slate.
- Alex Pietrangelo ($9,400 DK/ 13,500 FD) - Pietrangelo might be one of the safest plays to roster on the entire slate. He has posted double-digit DK points in seven straight games and continues to see over 23 minutes of ice time per game. He is averaging five shots on goal over his last five games while also averaging close to three blocked shots per game in that same stretch so he has a very safe floor while also providing a very nice ceiling. Normally, defenseman aren't the best captain options but with Pietrangelo being a strong offensive defenseman, he is one of the exceptions to the rule.
- Tyler Toffoli ($9,000 DK/ 15,500 FD) - Toffoli has been running quite hot throughout the playoffs and is one of the Canadiens that you should pay attention to, especially in tournament builds. He has recorded a point in eight straight games and has scored a goal in five of those games while skating on Montreal's most dangerous offensive line. If you're needing the best one-off from Montreal, Toffoli would be the guy to look at.
Value Picks
- Nicolas Roy ($3,000 DK/ $7,000 FD) - Roy could be a big-time value if Chandler Stephenson is out again as he would step into the top-line center role which means he would be skating with Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone. He could see a nice bump in ice-time and could find himself in some favorable scoring opportunities as he will have two dangerous wingers skating alongside him so if he does draw the start on the top line, he would be one to truly consider in all formats.
- Shea Weber ($6,200 DK/ $9,500 FD) - Weber continues to see large amounts of ice time which is one of the bigger things if you're looking for a value type of play. Weber has totaled 10 peripheral stats in their first two games against the Golden Knights and he is more of a cash game play as his scoring upside is limited.
- Cole Caufield ($6,400 DK/ $9,000 FD) - Caufield is another Canadien player that he been on a bit of a hot streak. He now has registered a point in four straight games while also recording a point in five out of his last six playoff games. His shot volume is a tad shaky but he has taken at least five shots in three out of his last five games played so there is some shot upside that he presents.
Stacks (In order of preference)
- VGK 2 - Marchessault/ Karlsson/ Smith
- MTL 2 - Toffoli/ Suzuki/ Caufield
- VGK 1 - Pacioretty/ Roy/ Stone
Player Pool (In order of preference)
- C - Karlsson, Suzuki, Stephenson, Danault, Kotkaniemi, Roy
- W - Pacioretty, Stone, Toffoli, Gallagher, Marchessault, Caufield, Anderson, Smith, Tuch, Lehkonen, Janmark
- D - Pietrangelo, Theodore, Weber, Martinez, Chiarot, McNabb, Gustafsson
- G - Fleury, Price
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
NHL Player News and Updates
[jiffyNews category_include='9958' headline='More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis'
