RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season has now entered the postseason which is the most exciting time to watch and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together.
In the image above, you'll see that Sidney Crosby is skating in-between Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust and this line has skated together for most of the year. The idea behind staking forward lines is that if Crosby gets a goal, there is a higher percentage and chance that either Rust or Guentzel would get credited with an assist, therefore, resulting in more fantasy points.
The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play on that site just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Monday, May 31th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 5/31
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- Montreal Canadiens (-105) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (-210) - 5.5U
- New York Islanders (-105) vs. Boston Bruins (-105) - 5.5O
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
NHL DFS Power Play Matrix
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium NHL DFS subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Jorge by using the promo code JORGEPUCKS when purchasing an NHL DFS Premium Pass. You get 10% off, and exclusive access to all of our Premium NHL cheat sheets, DFS research tools, Premium Slack Chatrooms, Stack Builder, Correlation Matrix, and Lineup Optimizer!
NHL DFS Core Plays
The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).
When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give a preferred play (varies on slate size) at each position and then other options at different price points so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.
NHL DFS Center Picks
- Auston Matthews, TOR ($9,200 DK / $8,800 FD) - This is a big night for the Leafs and Matthews as they have let a nice lead slip away so we can expect Matthews to give it his all as their season is on the line. While Matthews did not record a point against Montreal on Saturday, he did take seven shots on goal while blocking three shots.
Other centers to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Bergeron
- Mid-Tier- Barzal, Krejci, Nelson
- Value- Kerfoot, Pageau, Danault, Kotkaniemi
NHL DFS Forward Picks
- David Pastrnak, BOS ($7,900 DK / $7,900 FD) - Pastrnak had a dominant showing in their opening game of the second round against the Islanders. He recorded a hat-trick while taking seven total shots on goal. Pastrnak has now recorded five goals in three games and is in top-tier form as he looks to be the top winger option on the slate.
Other wings to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Marner, Marchand, Nylander, Hyman
- Mid-Tier- Beauvillier, Hall, Toffoli
- Value- Eberle, Bailey, Spezza
NHL DFS Defenseman Picks
- Charlie McAvoy, BOS ($5,500 DK / $5,800 FD) - McAvoy has really turned it on since the playoffs began as he is getting it done in all facets of the game. When looking at his last five games, McAvoy has recorded five points while managing to take 12 shots on goal and blocking nine shots over that span. He checks in at a very good price point and is viable in all formats.
Other defensemen to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Rielly, Petry
- Mid-Tier- Pulcok, Weber
- Value-Grzelcyk, Chiarot, Reilly, Brodie
NHL DFS Goalie Picks
- Tuukka Rask, BOS ($8,300 DK / $8,400 FD) - If you're looking for the safest play on the board at the goalie position, look no further than Rask. He has rattled off five straight wins while only allowing a total of nine goals in that five-game stretch. Rask has scored over 15+ DK points in four of those games and is 3-2 with a 1.88 goals allowed average in five starts against the Islanders this season.
Other goalies to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Campbell
- Mid-Tier- N/A
- Value- Price
Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them in case he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!
Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks
- BOS 1
- Marchand/ Bergeron/ Pastrnak (McAvoy, D-men add on)
- The top Bruins lineup had an extremely dominant game against the Islanders as they generated 16 scoring chances and four high-danger chances while recording a 5v5 goal. In just 12 minutes of ice time, they sported a very strong corsi rate of 79.31 which means they were able to maintain puck possession throughout the majority of the time they were on the ice. While a lot of people might gravitate towards the Toronto top line in tournaments, the Boston line as a whole presents the most upside and would be the preferred option to pay up for.
- Marchand/ Bergeron/ Pastrnak (McAvoy, D-men add on)
Other Stacks to consider in order of preference: TOR 1, MTL 1, BOS 2
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
