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Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season has now entered the postseason which is the most exciting time to watch and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together.
In the image above, you'll see that Sidney Crosby is skating in-between Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust and this line has skated together for most of the year. The idea behind staking forward lines is that if Crosby gets a goal, there is a higher percentage and chance that either Rust or Guentzel would get credited with an assist, therefore, resulting in more fantasy points.
The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play on that site just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Thursday, May 27th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 5/25
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- Montreal Canadiens vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (-230) - 5.5U
- Carolina Hurricanes (-155) vs. Nashville Predators - 5.5U
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
NHL DFS Power Play Matrix
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium NHL DFS subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Jorge by using the promo code JORGEPUCKS when purchasing an NHL DFS Premium Pass. You get 10% off, and exclusive access to all of our Premium NHL cheat sheets, DFS research tools, Premium Slack Chatrooms, Stack Builder, Correlation Matrix, and Lineup Optimizer!
NHL DFS Core Plays
The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).
When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give a preferred play (varies on slate size) at each position and then other options at different price points so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.
NHL DFS Center Picks
- Austin Matthews, TOR ($9,200 DK / $8,800 FD) - Toronto will get the home-ice advantage which means Matthews and his linemates should draw the best matchup on the entire slate. In this playoff matchup against Montreal, Matthews has recorded one goal and two assists while skating on home ice and has been pointless while on the road so if there is a time to pay up for Matthews, it would be right now.
Other centers to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Aho
- Mid-Tier- Trocheck
- Value- Staal, Granlund, Johansen, Kerfoot, Thornton
NHL DFS Forward Picks
- William Nylander, TOR ($5,800 DK / $6,800 FD) - If you're needing some salary relief but still want to get some exposure to Toronto, William Nylander looks to be one to consider. He has scored a goal in every game so far this season while taking 11 total shots on goal and looks to be in top form which is needed with john Tavares out for the foreseeable future.
Other wings to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Marner, Forsberg, Svechnikov
- Mid-Tier- Teravainen, Nylander, Necas, Gallagher
- Value- Niederreiter, Duchene, Tolvanen, Tatar, Kunin, Foegele
NHL DFS Defenseman Picks
- Dougie Hamilton, CAR ($6,600 DK / $6,500 FD) - Hamilton had another strong individual showing on Monday night as he took eight shots on goal and blocked two shots while also recording an assist. Hamilton now has 35 peripheral stats over his last four games and continues to be one of the best pay-up options on the entire slate.
Other defensemen to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Josi
- Mid-Tier- Rielly, Petry, Ellis, Muzzin
- Value- Ekholm, Pesce, Chiarot, Slavin, Holl
NHL DFS Goalie Picks
- Jack Campbell, TOR ($8,300 DK / $8,500 FD) - The Canadiens have had trouble scoring goals against Toronto as they have managed to accrue four total goals throughout the first four games of this series. Toronto will be on home ice which bodes well for Campbell and company and makes him the top goalie option on the slate. He is 3-1 so far in the 2021 playoffs and is coming off of a 32 save shutout performance against Montreal. He is sporting a 1.01 goals allowed average in these first four playoff starts and has a .965 save percentage. While he does have a high price tag on both sites, he is worth spending up for as he has been dominant in the net for the Maple Leafs.
Other goalies to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Nedeljkovic
- Mid-Tier- Saros
- Value-
Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them in case he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!
Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks
- TOR 1
- Hyman/ Matthews/ Marner (Rielly, D-men add on)
- With the game being played on home ice for Toronto, it is hard to not go straight to the Matthews line in all formats. So far when at home in the playoffs, this line is sporting a 65.12 corsi for rate and has generated 14 scoring chances for and seven high-danger chances while scoring one 5v5 goal in 23 minutes of ice time. When expanding this to all strengths, this line has managed to generate 26 scoring chances together and has two goals scored while allowing only one goal. This line will carry very high ownership but that is to be expected with it being such a small slate. One way to differentiate is to include Joe Thornton who skates with these three forwards on the top power-play unit or mini-stacking with the Maple Leafs second line in hopes that both lines score multiple goals and you could reap the benefit from both of their top lines.
- Hyman/ Matthews/ Marner (Rielly, D-men add on)
Other Stacks to consider in order of preference: CAR 1, NSH 1, NSH 2, TOR 2,
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
