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24Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season has now entered the postseason which is the most exciting time to watch and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together.
In the image above, you'll see that Sidney Crosby is skating in-between Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust and this line has skated together for most of the year. The idea behind staking forward lines is that if Crosby gets a goal, there is a higher percentage and chance that either Rust or Guentzel would get credited with an assist, therefore, resulting in more fantasy points.
The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play on that site just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Tuesday, May 25th, 2020 at 7:30 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 5/25
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- Toronto Maple Leafs (-190) vs. Montreal Canadiens - 5.5U
- Nashville Predators vs. Carolina Hurricanes (-185) - 5.5U
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
NHL DFS Power Play Matrix
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium NHL DFS subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Jorge by using the promo code JORGEPUCKS when purchasing an NHL DFS Premium Pass. You get 10% off, and exclusive access to all of our Premium NHL cheat sheets, DFS research tools, Premium Slack Chatrooms, Stack Builder, Correlation Matrix, and Lineup Optimizer!
NHL DFS Core Plays
The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).
When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give a preferred play (varies on slate size) at each position and then other options at different price points so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.
NHL DFS Center Picks
- Sebastian Aho, CAR ($7,000 DK / $8,000 FD) - Aho has had a very solid postseason so far against the Predators as he has produced three goals and five total points in four games. While Matthews will carry very heavy ownership in cash games and tournaments, pivoting down to Aho could be a way to be different with your tournament lines. Aho is averaging 15 DK points per game against Nashville this season and has 13 points in 12 games so he brings a solid floor and good upside to your lineup.
Other centers to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Matthews
- Mid-Tier- Trocheck
- Value- Staal, Granlund, Johansen, Kerfoot
NHL DFS Forward Picks
- Mitch Marner, TOR ($7,900 DK / $7,600 FD) - Whether it's taking shots on goal or finding the scorers sheet, Marner finds a way each game to rack up fantasy points for your lineup. He has now recorded a point in back-to-back games and has 13 points in 12 games against the Canadiens this season. He has one of the best floors from a winger perspective and skates alongside one of the best in Auston Matthews so he is always a point-scoring threat.
Other wings to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Forsberg, Svechnikov
- Mid-Tier- Teravainen, Nylander, Necas, Gallagher
- Value- Niederreiter, Duchene, Tolvanen, Tatar, Kunin, Foegele
NHL DFS Defenseman Picks
- Dougie Hamilton, CAR ($6,600 DK / $6,400 FD) - Hamilton is worth every penny on either site and is good for both cash games and tournament builds. He has recorded 25 peripheral stats over his last three games (over eight per game) while managing to record an assist in that three-game stretch so he brings arguably the best floor on the entire slate at a modest price point.
Other defensemen to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Josi
- Mid-Tier- Rielly, Petry, Ellis, Muzzin
- Value- Ekholm, Pesce, Chiarot, Slavin, Holl
NHL DFS Goalie Picks
- Jack Campbell, TOR ($8,100 DK / $8,100 FD) - With it being a small two-game slate, it might be best to roster the largest favorite when it comes to cash game builds. Campbell has now won back-to-back games for the Maple Leafs as they have taken the 2-1 lead against Montreal and his record against the Canadiens has now improved to 6-2-1 on the year with under a 2.00 goals allowed average.
Other goalies to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Nedeljkovic
- Mid-Tier-
- Value- Saros
Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them in case he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!
Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks
- CAR 1
- Svechnikov/ Aho/ Teravainen (Hamilton, D-men add on)
- The top line for the Canes has done really well so far throughout the postseason as they have managed to score two 5v5 goals in just 52 minutes of ice time while managing to generate 26 scoring chances and 11 high-danger opportunities. They have an expected goal for rate of 2.62 while generating 12.58 high-danger opportunities per 60 minutes of ice time against Nashville in four postseason games. The chalky spend-up option will be Toronto 1 but spending up for the Carolina forwards while also including Dougie Hamilton would be one way to get different with tournament builds.
- Svechnikov/ Aho/ Teravainen (Hamilton, D-men add on)
Other Stacks to consider in order of preference: TOR 1, CAR 2, NSH 1, CAR 3, NSH 2
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
