NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings (4/15): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Thursday, April 15th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 4/15

• • New York Islanders vs. Boston Bruins (-120) - 5O
  • Buffalo Sabres (-115) vs. Washington Capitals (-315) - 6U
  • New Jersey Devils vs. New York Rangers (-220) - 6U
  • Nashville Predators vs. Carolina Hurricanes (-185) - 5.5O
  • Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-150) - 6U
  • Philadelphia Flyers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (-165) - 6O
  • Winnipeg Jets vs. Toronto Maple Leaf (-167) - 6O
  • Chicago Blackhawks (-160) vs. Detroit Red Wings - 5.5O
  • Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Dallas Stars (-190) - 5O

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).

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NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

• Auston Matthews, TOR ($9,200 DK / $8,900 FD) - Out of the more expensive centers on the slate, the safest route is locking in Auston Matthews. Matthews has been on fire as he has scored nine points over his last five games and has scored four goals and registered three assists in six games against Winnipeg this year.
• Brayden Point, TBL ($5,900 DK/ $7,000 FD) - This is one of the lowest price points that we have seen Point at in quite some time, and with Steven Stamkos potentially out, the Lightning will need Point and Hedman to really pick up the scoring in Stamkos's absence. Point has netted three goals in four games against the Panthers this season and has registered a point in back-to-back games so this seems to be a safe matchup to roster him in.

Other centers to consider: 

• High Priced- Barkov, Crosby, Zibanejad, Aho, Scheifele
• Mid-Tier- Strome, Kuznetsov, Larkin, McCann, Benn, Carter
• Value- Krejci, Staal, Dach, Texier

NHL DFS Forward Picks

• Alex Ovechkin, WSH ($9,200 DK / $8,800 FD) - This is a perfect matchup for one of the best goal scorers in NHL history. Ovechkin has been in great form as he has recorded a goal in four of his last six games played while generating a point in 11 of his last 15 games played. Ovechkin has been successful against Buffalo this year as he has scored two goals and recorded three assists in five games while also taking 20 shots on goal.
• Patrick Laine, BBJ ($4,700 DK / $6,200 FD) - Laine might be starting to heat up as he has scored a goal in back-to-back games for the Blue Jackets. Laine was in a bit of a cold spell as he didn't register a single point for a little over two weeks but he woke up against Chicago with three goals in a two-game span. While he might be a risky play in cash, there is no denying his upside, especially at his price point.

Other wings to consider: 

• High Priced- Kane, Panarin, Marner, Guentzel, DeBrincat, Rust, Ehlers, Robertson, Huberdeau
• Mid-Tier- Svechnikov, Oshie, Kreider, Bjorkstrand, Necas, Mantha, Hall, Kubalik
• Value- Niederreiter, Palmieri, Cirelli, Vatrano, Galchenyuk, Stastny, Coleman, Duclair

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

• Seth Jones, CBJ ($5,900 DK / $4900 FD) - While there are several great pay-up options at the defensive position, Seth Jones is in a great price range on both sites and has been in great form as of late. He has scored double-digit DK points in five of his last six games and has racked up 33 peripheral stats in six games against Dallas this season.
• Mike Reilly, BOS ($3,600 DK / $3,900 FD) - Reilly made his Bruins debut on Tuesday and while he didn't get on the scorer's sheet, he did take five shots on goal and ended up blocking one shot. Reilly gets a big boost as he has been added to the top power-play unit and will see some time with the likes of David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand, and Patrice Bergeron so the assist upside is there.

Other defensemen to consider: 

• High Priced- Hamilton, Carlson, Fox, Hedman, Josi, Letang
• Mid-Tier- Klingberg, Rielly, Trouba, Sergachev, Morrissey, Pulock
• Value- Weegar, Subban, Ekholm, Pionk, Ellis, Forsling, Cernak

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

• Ilya Samsonov, WSH ($8,500 DK / $8,700 FD) - The Caps are the largest favorite on the slate so it makes to automatically turn to their goalie for your cash game builds. Samsonov got the start on Tuesday and with a day of rest in between games, there is a chance that he could get the start again on Thursday against Buffalo. Samsonov is 10-3-1 on the year with a 2.83 goals allowed average and an .899 save percentage and has won his lone tart against the Sabres this season.
• Petr Mrazek, CAR ($8,100 DK / $8,400 FD) - The Predators have been playing some great hockey as of late so rostering Mrazek could be a tad risky. Mrazek has won three of his last four starts and is 4-1-1 on the season. He has a very low 1.47 goals allowed average and a .943 save percentage so when he is in net, you know you will get a strong outing from him.

Other goalies to consider: 

• High Priced- Shesterkin, Campbell
• Mid-Tier- Lankinen, Bobrovsky
• Value- Saros

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them in case he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks 

• WSH 1  
  • Ovechkin/ Kuznetsov/ Wilson (Carlson, d-men add on)
    • This is just too easy of a spot to ignore on a larger slate like this. Washington is the largest favorite on this slate and should carry one of the higher team totals of the entire night which means you should give consideration to both of their top two lines with the preference going to the Ovechkin line. This line is generating a 2.8 expected goals for rate per 60 while generating a relatively high 13.89 high danger chances for per 60 minutes of ice time. Both Ovechkin and Kuznetsov are correlated at even strength and on the power play so pairing them with Carlson makes for a strong three-man stack.
• NYR 2  
  • Panarin/ Strome/ Blackwell  
    • The second line of the Rangers has been a very solid second and it certainly helps to have a duo like Strome and Panarin leading the way on this line. The Panarin line is sporting a 2.53 expected goals for rate per 60 and is generating 32.07 scoring chances for and 8.32 high danger chances for per 60 minutes of ice time. Both Panarin and Strome skate at even strength and on the power play and with the Devils having one of the worst penalty-killing units in the league, rostering them with ZIbanejad could be a way to differentiate your Rangers stacks.

Other Stacks to consider: TOR 1, PIT 1, CHI 1, CAR 1, DAL 1, WSH 2, WPG 3

Key Abbreviations:

xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time

GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time

SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time

If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!

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