RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Mark and I write NFL, MLB, and NHL on Rotoballer. I play NHL DFS almost daily, and am excited to bring you my thoughts on today's slate!
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel on Thursday, April 7th, 2022 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome suite of NHL DFS lineup tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 4/7/22
We have a ten-game slate tonight. We have games starting at staggered times between 7:00 pm Eastern and 10:30 pm Eastern. Be aware of when the games start for your stacks, one-offs, and goalie. The best thing you can do is check 20-30 minutes before the puck drops for each game to ensure everyone in your lineup is playing! Nothing is more frustrating than having a great lineup and getting a zero from any position but especially goalie!
NHL DFS Goalies
Elvis Merzlikins - DK $7.9K|| FD $7.8K
Opponent - Philadelphia Flyers
Columbus is a -135 favorite at home against a bad Flyers team. Philadelphia is No. 17 in the league in shots per game at 30.73. Merzlikins is 23-18-6 with a 3.37 GAA, two shutouts and a .904 SV%. In his last three games, he has allowed eight goals but has a 0.932 SV%. Last game against Philadelphia he had 47 saves and allowed two goals! They shot 49 goals on him! Columbus is No. 1 in shots allowed per game at 35.62. Like all goalies, there is some risk, but he is playing well, at home, and in a game, Columbus is favored to win.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Vladar (DK $8.4K || FD $8.2K), Saros (DK $8.3K || FD $8.3K), Campbell (DK $7.8K || FD $8.1K), Mike Smith (DK $7.7K || FD $7.9K), Quick (DK $7.3K || FD $7.5K), Reimer/Kahkonen (DK $7.2K || FD $7.2K - GPP only)
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below you will find recommendations that fall into both camps.
Auston Matthews - DK $9.6K || FD $10.3K
Opponent - Dallas Stars
Auston Matthews is currently on a tear with three goals, four assists, and 15 shots on goals in his last two games. Matthews has the highest ceiling fantasy-wise pretty much every night he laces up the skates. If you know anything about hockey, you know who he is. On this particular slate, if spending up at Center, you can't go wrong with Matthews, Connor McDavid, or J.T. Miller (DraftKings - he is wing only on FanDuel).
Nico Hischier- DK $5.2K || FD $6.4K
Opponent - Montreal Canadiens
With Jack Hughes done for the season, Nico Hischier becomes a more appealing option for New Jersey in our DFS lineups. Hischier has 50 points (19 goals, 31 assists) in 61 games played, averaging 2.18 shots on goal per game. Going against Montreal and being on the top line and first power-play unit makes him a viable option tonight.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Miller (DK $7.4K || FD $8.3K Wing on FanDuel), Malkin (DK $6.3K || FD $7.3K), Kopitar (DK $5.5K || FD $6.0K), Suzuki (DK $5.4K || FD $6.1K), Seguin (DK $4.8K || FD $5.4K), Trocheck (DK $4.7K || FD $5.3K), Hayes (DK $4.5K || FD $5.1K), Staal (DK $2.9K || FD $4.4K).
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully score.
Patrick Kane - DK $8.1K|| FD $8.9K
Opponent - Seattle Kraken
Patrick Kane is a stud that is restorable every night. He is the winger that is the most likely to lead the scoring on the slate in my opinion. He is slightly overpriced on both sites for cash games (worse on DraftKings), and is a great GPP one-off play. Additionally, he would be great on a Chicago stack too. He averages 1.21 points per game and shoots 3.73 shots on goal per game.
Jesper Bratt - DK $5.9K || FD $7.1K
Opponent - Montreal Canadiens
New Jersey Devils are priced down on DraftKings and will likely be a popular stack as well as good choices to utilize in a cash game. Bratt averages one point per game and 2.75 shots on goal per game. Montreal is bad, don't overthink it.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Marner (DK $7.5K || FD $9.8K), Gaudreau (DK $7.3K || FD $9.5K), Forsberg (DK $7.2K || FD $8.5K), Svechnikov (DK $6.7K || FD $7.2K), Laine (DK $6.4K || FD $7.7K), Duchene (DK $6.3K || FD $7.4K), Bjorkstrand (DK $4.8K || FD $5.9K), Tippett (DK $2.7K || FD $4.6K)
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the 2nd one) if I can.
This slate does not have a lot of great defenseman value at the top of the salary and I would advise to either punt here or add a power-play defenseman to a stack if playing a GPP.
Roman Josi - DK $8.9K || FD $7.7K
Opponent - Ottawa Senators
On DraftKings, Roman Josi is so expensive that he is a GPP only play as you do not need to spend $9K on a defenseman in a cash game. On FanDuel he is priced more reasonably. Josi averages 1.25 points per game, 3.5 shots per game, and 1.66 blocked shots per game. He does a little bit of everything, plays on the power play, and is going against a team that Nashville should do well against.
Jacob Trouba - DK $5.5K || FD $5.3K
Opponent - Pittsburgh Penguins
If I have money in this price range for a defenseman, Trouba is one of my favorite ones to roster when he is on the slate. There is nothing that jumps out on the page about his fantasy scoring, but he is solid and relatively consistent. He averages just 0.48 points per game but he also averages 2.58 shots on goal per game and 2.17 blocked shots per game.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Werenski (DK $7.3K || FD $6.5K), Jones (DK $6.6K || FD $6.6K), Hamilton (DK $6.4K || FD $5.8K), Durzi (DK $4.7K || FD $5.4K), Savard (DK $3.5K || FD $4.4K)
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
This will come as no surprise, I am a single entry and 3 max DFS player, but I will look to fade all of those lowest implied total teams and try to target stacks in the high implied total games.
I will continue to emphasize this but your strategy for GPPs depends on what kind of contest you are playing in. We have a large, ten-game slate. We don't have to go crazy here to find a stack that is possibly being overlooked in the way we might in a four-game slate.
Looking at the slate, Carolina is implied for 4.4 goals and Calgary for 4.0 goals. I would imagine the Power Play and the first two lines for each of these teams will be popular. If you avoid those, you are probably leveraged enough in most NHL tournaments outside of any especially large ones. There are 11 other teams implied for three or more goals on the slate.
Some other stacks I like:
Nashville PP1: I like this stack especially on DraftKings as they are expensive and rostering the first line and Josi will put you on combinations unique to the field. Nashville has the No. 6 Power Play (25%) and Ottawa's penalty kill is close to average at No. 12 (80.6%).
Chicago PP1: Seattle has the No. 28 penalty kill (74.3%). Chicago is a team I could see getting overlooked
New Jersey PP1: People may go here as Montreal has the No. 29 penalty kill (74%) and the game is an earlier one.
Vancouver 1: Implied for 3.6 goals, facing a terrible Arizona team and with a later game, ownership might be lower than it should be. Also, Arizona allows the second-most shots on goal in the league per game (35.43).
Los Angeles 2: This line combination has scored the most goals on the team and they will go overlooked as an underdog and implied for just 3.2 goals compared to the rest of the field.
If you are looking to get sneaky anywhere stack-wise, find a high-owned goalie and choose the most productive stack against that goalie's opponent for leverage, especially in a large field GPP.
