NHL DFS for FanDuel, DraftKings (9/19): Value Plays, Goalies, Power Plays, Core 4, Stacks

5 years ago by Chris Wassel

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Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey this time of year is a different experience with the showdown slates. The goal is to keep things simple during this time of year. Keep it simple stupid applies here.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Nikita Kucherov who can be a volume shooter tends to be a better play just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and Fanduel for Saturday, September 19th, 2020 at 7:30 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 9/19

Dallas Stars (+140) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-160)

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis

Team	Goalie GAA	Goalie SS	Goalie RBS	Goalie GSAA	Goalie QS%
Anton Khudobin	2.62 -- 9th	32.11	1	1.69	50
Andrei Vasilevskiy	1.82 -- 2nd	30.69	0	8.45	63.2

The numbers I use will be a bit different than Jorge's but the goal is the same. Goalies are ranked based on a minimum of eight starts (more than one round basically).This is to keep you informed of overall statistics from an individual goaltending standpoint. Anton Khudobin took over for Ben Bishop and ran with the starting job in these playoffs. Goalie SS is simply goalie shots seen. Goalie RBS is what we call a really bad start where a goaltender has a save percentage of .850 or less. Goalie GSAA is goals saved above average and the quality start percentage is where a goaltender posts above the league average in save percentage.

Now, what has been lost in some of the big picture numbers is that Anton Khudobin was excellent against Vegas in the Conference Finals posting a .950 save percentage with an even strength save percentage that was even higher. Vegas was able to generate quite a few high-danger chances and the Dallas goaltender was more than up to the task. As for Andrei Vasilevskiy his work load has lessened a little bit since the New York Islanders typically averaged less than 30 shots per contest. He continued to play well and make enough key saves to be the top overall goaltender of these playoffs so far.

Power Play Analysis

Matchup	PP%	Opp PK %
Dallas Stars	27.3% -- 2	83.6% -- 5
Tampa Bay Lightning	17.9% -- 8	83.3% -- 6

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank. The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents to ensure we get the correct data for each slate!

Dallas enjoys a considerable advantage here and this could be the key to the series. For some reason, not only has the Dallas power play performed during the playoffs, it is one of the league's most feared. It has been vital in their ability to advance through the first three rounds. With Jamie Benn scoring at will and a top unit that features players like John Klinbgberg and Joe Pavelski. Also, do not forget about Alexander Radulov and Miro Heiskanen who are both dangerous as well.

Tampa Bay's power play went into the drink against the New York Islanders -- particularly over the final three or four games of the series. It will be intriguing to see how it looks against a Dallas penalty kill that bends but typically does not break. A healthy Brayden Point (if he really is 100%) would go a long way combined with Nikita Kucherov obviously.

NHL DFS Core Plays- Showdown

Captain Picks

Victor Hedman ($13,800 DK/ $12,500 FD) - Hedman had great final two games against the New York Islanders and was a big reason why Tampa Bay was able to weather New York's dump and place attack. Not only was Hedman is usual shots and blocks beast, he scored goals in each of the final two contests. His Game 6 line was a goal on six shots and four blocks. His double-digit point runs DFS wise have ranged from 2-4 games in these playoffs so he may have another performance in him for Game 1 -- even on limited rest.
Nikita Kucherov ($16,200 DK/ $15,500 FD) - Kucherov is the most expensive player on the slate but also carries the highest ceiling of all skaters in this game. He is coming off two so-so performances by his standards but the good news is he has 3+ shots on goal in his previous six games. The chances have been there but he did not score a goal in the final four games of the New York series. He leads the postseason among forwards in points with 26 but only has six goals.
Jamie Benn ($12,000 DK/ $15,000 FD) - If you want to be different in tournaments, Jamie Benn is worth taking more than just a look at. His final three games of the Vegas series reminded people of the old Benn who would just hit everything in sight and create space for himself. He had four points in the final three games of the series with 13 shots on net, three goals, and nine scoring chances. The best part was he only averaged about 17 minutes a night so he should not be overly taxed for Game 1. Dallas has had a few more days off which should also help. A Dallas alternative could be Anton Khudobin for DraftKings with the save bonus always a possibility.

Value Picks

Ondrej Palat ($8,200 DK/ $10,500 FD) - Palat has been skating with the top Lightning line all postseason long and has filled in nicely for Steven Stamkos. Palat is cheaper than his other linemates but allows you to get exposure to the top line and the top powerplay line as well. He has scored double-digit DK points in six his last nine games. If needing salary relief, Palat can be viable in tournaments for the captain role due to his recent form and salary savings that he provides. With or without Brayden Point, Palat has carried a nice floor and had 3+ shots in each of the final four games of the New York series.
Erik Cernak ($4,800 DK/ $6,500 FD) - Cernak has been playing mostly on the second defense pairing at even strength with Mikhail Sergachev. If he can muster around 17-19 minutes a night (almost all even strength time), that is fine. He can block quite a few shots and will provide occasional offense when his above average slap shot comes close or hits the net. Cernak could be a surprise difference maker for Tampa Bay in this series.
Corey Perry ($3,400 DK/ $6,500 FD) - Perry is minimum or near minimum price in all formats and has six shots and four scoring chances in his previous two games. He is a risk worth taking as nothing more than a punt play to fill out rosters while saving a few dollars on some of the bigger choices. Perry typically only plays 12-14 minutes a night but he could see some second-unit power play time in front of the net. Patrick Maroon would be the Tampa version of Perry basically as a secondary option.