RADIO
The NHL regular season kicks off in less than a week as we have a plethora of betting futures to comb through over the next several days.
One of the more interesting NHL futures categories is the point total over/under department. It gives us an opportunity to cash in on our sleeper clubs while taking aim at some teams that should take a step in the wrong direction in the 2023-24 campaign. Call it a team risers and fallers piece, if you will.
Who's going to be the next New Jersey Devils and outperform expectations all season long? Who is going to pull a Penguins and Capitals and not only underperform but miss the postseason altogether? Let's dive in and check out the five best point total over/under bets for the 2023-24 NHL season.
Buffalo Sabres
Projected point total: 92.5
The Buffalo Sabres fell just one point shy of the Florida Panthers for the second and final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference with 91 points last season and it's hard to see them taking any steps back this time around.
While youthful, this is a talented Sabres roster with young players only getting better each season. They have Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power, two No. 1 overall picks, leading the back end while Tage Thompson has become one of the game's elite up front. Add in the likes of Alex Tuch, Dylan Cozens, Jeff Skinner, Casey Middlestadt, and J.J. Peterka, and you can see why many across the league view the Sabres as a legitimate playoff threat this season.
The X-factor? 21-year-old goaltender Devon Levi. The former seventh-round pick just finished a brilliant two-year career at Northeastern University where he posted an eye-popping 1.54 goals-against average and a .952 save percentage as a freshman in 2021-22 before working to a 2.24 GAA and .933 Sv% last season before appearing in seven games with Buffalo.
This league can be cruel to young netminders, but if Levi can hold his own, this team is likely postseason-bound.
Pick: Over 92.5 points (-115)
Los Angeles Kings
Projected point total: 99.5
Any time you get near the 100-point projected total, you need to be careful as it takes a very good hockey club to crack that plateau. This should be a very good L.A. Kings hockey team again this season after racking up 104 regular-season points last season.
Boding well for them is the relative weakness of the Pacific Division. The defending champion Golden Knights and Oilers will be a problem but it's tough to see much quality coming out of the division after that. Each of the Flames, Canucks, Sharks, and Ducks don't have great outlooks while it's easy to see regression from the 100-point Seattle Kraken.
At the same time, the Kings made a sizeable move to acquire center Pierre-Luc Dubois from the Winnipeg Jets, giving them elite depth down the middle. They sport one of the deeper forward groups in hockey while young blueliners Brandt Clarke and Mikey Anderson will each look to take a step forward alongside reliable veterans Drew Doughty and Vladislav Gavrikov.
Like in Buffalo, the biggest question is between the pipes. Pheonix Copley came in and steadied the ship after both Jonathan Quick and Cal Petersen struggled last season but can he do it again? The journeyman has just 68 games of regular-season action, posting a 2.80 GAA and .902 Sv% in that time. The club brought in veteran Cam Talbot to perhaps share the crease with Copley but he hasn't been at his best in recent seasons.
Again, if the goaltending can hold up in Los Angeles, they should be able to enjoy their second consecutive 100-point campaign.
Pick: Over 99.5 points (-105)
San Jose Sharks
Projected point total: 66.5
The Sharks don't have a high bar here with a 66.5 projected point total but they'll still be hard-pressed to get there on the heels of a 60-point season.
Consider that they finished with 60 points last season with a full season of Erik Karlsson and his 100-point campaign from the blueline while 40-goal scorer Timo Meier spent 57 of his 78 games with the club prior to a trade deadline deal to the Devils.
Additionally, captain Logan Couture is not skating at the moment and appears unlikely to be ready for the start of the season due to a lower-body injury. The veteran has yet to even take the ice throughout training camp. Any significant time missed from Couture further dampens the outlook for a club that could very well be staring last place in the face in 2023-24.
A seven-point improvement from last season seems unlikely in Northern California this season.
Pick: Under 66.5 points (-120)
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New Jersey Devils
Projected point total: 105.5
The New Jersey Devils are a sexy pick to take down the Eastern Conference and compete for a Stanley Cup after surprising their way to a 112-point campaign last season, the third-highest total in the NHL.
If the Devils come anywhere close to their preseason expectations, they will cruise past this total. Jack Hughes has molded himself into one of the game's elite players while the surrounding talent is fantastic in the form of Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier, Tyler Toffoli, Dawson Mercer, and Ondrej Palat. Oh, and they get a full season of Meier coming off his 40-goal campaign from a season ago.
The Jonas Siegenthaler and Dougie Hamilton could be one of the best in all of hockey this season while University of Michigan standout Luke Hughes, Jack's youngest brother, should be an impact offensive defenseman in his rookie season.
For the third time in four teams in this piece, goaltending is the X-factor on whether or not a team can reach their projected point total. Vitek Vanecek was solid in posting a 2.45 GAA and .911 Sv% in 52 appearances last season. That type of goaltending will certainly suffice on this talented Devils team but if it doesn't, they have an impressive youngster in Akira Schmid who posted a 2.13 GAA and .922 Sv% in 18 regular-season appearances before posting a 2.35 GAA and .921 Sv% across nine postseason contests.
A significant step back from the emerging Devils does not seem to be in the cards.
Pick: Over 105.5 points (-115)
Vancouver Canucks
Projected point total: 90.5
It's difficult to see where the Canucks are going to gain the eight points they will need from last season to get over this season's total.
The Canucks finished with just 83 points in 2022-23 and didn't do much to bolster their lineup. All-world center Elias Pettersson is the real deal, J.T. Miller is another excellent pivot, and Brock Boeser can score goals, although he has had a few disappointing seasons in a row. Adding to the positive side, 27-year-old Thatcher Demko is entering the prime seasons of his NHL career but also posted a 3.16 GAA and .901 Sv% behind a weak Canucks back end last season.
That Canucks back end should struggle again this season. The Canucks ranked 26th in high-danger chances against per 60 minutes at 5v5 last season, putting a lot of pressure on Demko in the process. Offensively, sophomore Andrei Kuzmensko appears set to regress after a 39-goal season on a league-leading 27.3% shooting rate. He will not score on 27% of his shots -- or anywhere close -- this season.
They did finish 13th in overall offense last season but also 20th in goals for/60 at 5v5 action. Their 11th-ranked power play will need to be very good again. Regression cannot be afforded in this department.
Add it up and the Canucks don't appear ready to bounce back in a big way this season.
Pick: Under 90.5 points (-115)
