Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Draft Sleepers, Studs and Busts

The 2024 NFL preseason is in the rearview mirror, meaning fantasy football draft season is here!

Fantasy players can build a league-winning roster using several draft strategies. However, every strategy requires fantasy players to find studs, draft sleepers, and avoid bust candidates.

Let’s look at two wide receiver studs fantasy players should draft, two sleepers they want to target, and two bust candidates to avoid in 2024 fantasy football drafts.

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Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Studs to Draft

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions

Despite being a fourth-round pick in the NFL Draft, St. Brown has been one of the more consistent wide receivers in fantasy football since the second half of his rookie season. The star receiver finished as the WR8 in 2022 and the WR3 last year, averaging 15.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game over those two years.

Furthermore, he is coming off the best season of his career, setting career-highs in receptions (119), targets (164), receiving yards (1,515), and touchdowns (10).

More importantly, St. Brown is the focal point of the Lions’ passing attack, posting the sixth-highest target share (27.9%) and the fourth-highest targets per route run rate (30%) among wide receivers with at least 70 routes in 2023 (per Fantasy Points Data).

The Lions get on the board first 😎@jaredgoff16 | @amonra_stbrown

📺: #Kickoff2023 on NBC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/EBLJ3Rwf5g pic.twitter.com/ZtuqfWCMFt

— NFL (@NFL) September 8, 2023

The superstar receiver was one of seven players with double-digit receiving scores despite his teammate, Sam LaPorta, also scoring 10 touchdowns last year. While many have high expectations for Jameson Williams this season, St. Brown should have no trouble posting another top-5 finish.

Nico Collins, Houston Texans

Collins was a popular third-year breakout candidate last year and one of my favorite draft targets. The former Michigan star was a fantasy stud, ending the season as the WR9, averaging 14.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. He had a higher fantasy points per game average than Puka Nacua (14.5), Mike Evans (14.3), and A.J. Brown (13.9).

While fantasy players won’t get him in the double-digit rounds like in 2023, the former Michigan star is still a value at his current ADP. Collins led the Texans in receptions (80), targets (109), receiving yards (1,297), and touchdowns (eight) last year.

The star receiver will have target competition. Yet, Collins is Houston’s clear-cut No. 1 receiver. Tank Dell is coming off a massive leg injury, while Stefon Diggs is on the wrong side of 30 and has had back-to-back years with late-season struggles. More importantly, Collins had a significantly higher yards per route run rate (3.37) than Dell (2.40) and Diggs (2.06) in 2023 (per Fantasy Points Data).

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Sleepers to Target

Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers

Watson was a league-winner during his rookie season. He was the WR7 from Week 10 through Week 18 that year, averaging 15.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. The former North Dakota State star posted a higher fantasy points per game average than several superstars during those nine weeks, including Tyreek Hill and Ja'Marr Chase.

The fantasy football community had high hopes for Watson heading into the 2023 season, calling him a sophomore-year breakout candidate. Unfortunately, he struggled to stay healthy.

The talented receiver has been productive when healthy but has missed nearly a third of the games in his career because of injury, including eight contests last season. However, Watson has averaged 10 half-point PPR fantasy points per game for his career.

More importantly, he had the sixth-most end-zone targets (15) and ninth-most end-zone touchdowns (five) in the NFL last year despite missing nearly half the season (per Fantasy Points Data). If Watson can stay healthy, the third-year player could be a league-winning pick.

Javon Baker, New England Patriots

I have been a massive fan of Baker’s all offseason, picking him in nearly every dynasty rookie draft and many of my best ball teams. We have seen NFL Draft Day 3 picks turn into fantasy stars as a rookie, including Puka Nacua and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

More importantly, the Patriots have arguably the most underwhelming wide receiver corps in the NFL, giving the former UCF star a chance to be the No. 1 guy for whoever is playing quarterback this season. Baker had the 11th-highest PFF receiving grade in the draft class last year and posted a higher yards per route run average than Rome Odunze (3.21 vs. 2.93).

Furthermore, he ranked in the 97th percentile in college target share. While Ja'Lynn Polk and Demario Douglas are popular late-round sleepers, fantasy players shouldn’t be surprised if Baker turns into Jacoby Brissett or Drake Maye’s go-to target, especially after making several impressive plays during training camp.

Bake brings it down 👀@JBrissett12 | @Javondbaker1 pic.twitter.com/O33I7TSmSu

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) July 29, 2024

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Busts to Avoid

Stefon Diggs, Houston Texans

There are few players I will refuse to draft anywhere near their ADP this year, with Diggs at the top of that list. The veteran wide receiver’s draft cost is rising when it should be sinking. He has had late-season struggles in back-to-back years.

Diggs was the WR47 over the final eight games last season, averaging only 7.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game and 0.41 fantasy points per route run, both lower averages than Noah Brown (per Fantasy Points Data). I would consider giving the former superstar another chance in 2024 if he was still Josh Allen’s No. 1 wide receiver.

The veteran saw a 27.5% target share, a 28% targets per route run rate, and a 27.5% receiving yards market share last season with the Buffalo Bills (per Fantasy Points Data). Unfortunately, Diggs won’t see similar numbers this year, with Nico Collins and Tank Dell coming off impressive 2023 performances. Diggs should be the third Texans receiver drafted and a seventh-round pick.

Keenan Allen, Chicago Bears

Allen was the WR8 last year, averaging 17.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, the star receiver was the WR3 on a points-per-game basis, outscoring every wide receiver other than Tyreek Hill (19.8) and CeeDee Lamb (19.7) in 2023.

However, his fantasy football outlook for the upcoming season drastically differs from what fantasy players have expected over the past few years. Allen went from being Justin Herbert’s No. 1 wide receiver on a pass-happy offense to part of a crowded receiving corps in Chicago. While the veteran should be outstanding for Caleb Williams, his fantasy value took a massive hit after getting traded in the offseason.

Herbert ➡️ Allen. Move the ⛓️

📺: #CHIvsLAC on NBC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/afiiMv70VD pic.twitter.com/27wd1rafJw

— NFL (@NFL) October 30, 2023

The star receiver is a volume-based player, averaging 9.4 targets per game in his career. Unfortunately, he won’t see the same target volume with the Bears. DJ Moore will remain the team’s No. 1 wide receiver. Meanwhile, Allen must fight off Rome Odunze for snaps and targets. More importantly, he has missed 11 games over the past two years because of injuries.

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